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nick sussex

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Everything posted by nick sussex

  1. It really is a catch 22 sometimes . The initial SSW brings the easterly and without the second strat warming you’d likely definitely get the initial deep cold into the UK but then you might end up with milder conditions following from the sw as the high sinks on its eastern flank . The second warming means the high is surrounded by low heights as in the Omega block and the cold continues but then less chance of a direct hit of the deep cold but still more chances from the ne. The ECM mean at T240 hrs is stunning if the early fun and games landed , it’s a very bizarre scenario where the Holy Grail of set ups is going to disappoint some in the shorter term.
  2. The GFS is a stunner this morning , upto day ten hard to find any fault and it manages to bring a second chunk of deep cold west . The ECM has that second cold chunk but the Scandi trough is already sinking se so stops the advection west of that. The UKMO is an upgrade compared to last night, with less worries about shortwave spoilers to the ne. It’s always a balancing act here with getting a sufficient block and the cold getting across to the UK, and the block not being too strong and too far south ,a flabby end to the block with deep cold could end up with a shortwave drama. The block looks strong and not flabby , the UK just needs a bit of luck to get the perfect alignment . Both the ECM and GFS now converging on the omega block , I think we’re seeing the formers better strat input come to the fore as it’s the first to pick up on that feedback of the second strat warming.
  3. Take the ECM and shunt it further north , that’s the perfect outcome . Synoptically excellent with more cold to head sw from Scandi after day ten.
  4. A very good GFS run for most of the high resolution but not enough trough disruption to the sw and the blocking too far north later. So it depends on how lucky you feel as to what you want to verify ! The ECM delivers an omega block and extended cold , the GFS is one of those squeeze all the fun in but you might end up with a hangover later runs. The GFS might navigate a delicate balancing act if you can get more trough disruption to the sw with more energy sliding much further east and the block developing a bit further to the ne later . No ones mentioned the shortwave just west of Norway around T132 hrs, this thankfully gets sent packing as the heights increase to the nw which helps to smoothe the flow out once again . The depth of cold shown is exceptional for this late into the winter season. Anyway at least that’s another run out of the way with no major early dramas .
  5. The De Bilt ECM extended ensembles are an upgrade in terms of longevity for cold. The snow spikes also increasing. Looks like more deeper cold heads sw later.
  6. Spot on. The reason the high builds into Greenland is helped by that second warming which in turn helps to form the Omega block. In that scenario a trough drops south into Scandi , what’s happened on tonight’s ECM run is an acceleration of the Omega block signal . The GFS op doesn’t really have that signal yet, the best outcome is an eventual Omega block because that’s more likely to extend the cold and give further chances for more deep cold to drop sw from Scandi but a nice 36 hour delay to give the deep cold time to get into the UK.
  7. The issue with the ECM isn’t at the start . It had the more progressive trough to the west for the previous runs. Its after day 7 with the trough dropping se from Greenland which changes the shape of the block . This evenings ECM was almost a carbon copy of the morning run upto day 7. People need to stop worrying about the earlier timeframe. Amidst all the attention on the ECM the UKMO isn’t as great as it looks. You don’t want the main block that far north.
  8. This is a bit surreal . An Omega Block is like what we spend all winter hoping for and now unfortunately it’s come around too quickly which cuts off the easterly a bit too soon. If the ECM is too quick with that evolution then it could work out well for the UK, easterly then northerly .
  9. I feel like public enemy number one ! What you want is just a little delay in the evolution to the omega block , it’s the trough dropping into Scandi which then forces the deeper cold further south . The thing is for locked in cold the ECM is better than the GFS, no high slippage to the se with heights remaining low there.
  10. No really I’m not bothered about the cold pool down here. We don’t need that deeper cold for snow here and I wanted it into the UK. I’m lucky here with the mountains so won’t begrudge you guys getting the deepest cold. Lets hope for a blended solution as that means you get the best in terms of longevity for cold and snow. The omega block is like the Holy Grail and the another shot of very cold air is likely to head sw but I understand that at the moment that’s not really going to make up for the deep cold miss in some parts of the UK. Anyway I’ll get my coat!
  11. The ECM now developing an omega block which means the trough dropping south into Scandi . A locked in cold pattern. I’m surprised though its taken the cold not far enough north. Hopefully the middle ground solution can deliver the deep cold and the omega block. Its very hard to criticize the ECM run in terms of pattern but I understand some members are going to be a bit irritated by the cold pool not scoring a direct hit .
  12. The cold should push west north west into the UK as pressure rises over southern Greenland , as long as that happens the UK can’t miss the cold.
  13. Well that was a relief! Its got to that point now were for UK coldies its nerve shredding so as I'm a long suffering UK coldie by proxy very happy to see no major dramas this morning. The ECM is fantastic because remember the flock of sheep analogy from last night. The block builds in a better position to usher in the deep cold to the UK. The UKMO at T168hrs from what we can see looks great aswell.
  14. Remember folks no telling family or friends just yet! We’ve still got loads of runs to get through , there’s a reason the type of cold pool shown rarely gets even close to the UK . It’s exceptional for that level of cold this late in the season. Anyway see you all tomorrow morning after I’ve been to church at Lourdes to say a prayer for the advance of the Russian Wall of Cold ! Seriously though I’m off to watch some Winter Olympics coverage and sadly will miss church in the morning !
  15. The thing I like about both the ECM 12 hrs and GFS 18 hrs run is the core of height rises is to the north then edges to the ne. So the UK isn’t at the flabby end of the block as the cold pool advances . Think of the core heights as the shepherd and his dog and the deep cold the flock of sheep. If you have that strong block in a good position it acts to force the sheep into line! I must stop with these bizarre analogies!
  16. Apparently GFS 18 hrs runs like hanging out at coffee shops in Amsterdam! A stupendous run and better in terms of blocking set up. BA mentioned earlier in the thread the direction of the cold pool and possible shortwaves . Because there’s a signal for heights to rise to the nw later then it’s better the cold pool doesn’t start off too far north to the east . Many of the UK cold misses to the south happen because too much energy goes over the high , that wouldnt happen if the height rise to the nw verifies , this would tend to help the cold pool get pulled more nw as it heads into the UK helped by the rise of pressure to the nw. So for that reason you don’t want the cold too far north at the outset. Anyway there’s quite a few runs to go before we can be more confident of where the deepest cold will head and we do have to keep an eye on any shortwave development in the flow.
  17. If this cold does hit the UK I’m sure some in here are going to be unable to sleep with excitement ! The actual cold pool is quite wide , but of course getting the perfect track this far out is difficult given the timeframes. I would love to see at least sub -15 850s together with those lower heights getting into the UK. At least no worries about slush or marginal dew points and the North Sea would become a convection machine !
  18. Wouldn’t it be great if this ECM run verified. It would be really exciting to follow the now named by BA Wall of Russian Cold heading west and seeing those temps plummeting. The ECM has an almost perfect block set up later. You can see though some shortwave activity is likely to form as that crosses the warmer North Sea . That could be interesting as it hits the UK!
  19. Yes a weak shortwave is okay , we don’t want to see anything deeper. It’s an unusual scenario because we don’t often see that level of cold modelled over Europe.
  20. I suppose the irony of this situation is actually the depth of cold! The intense cold could develop a shortwave , the track might be important here so funneling just south of the Baltic and being advected west. As long as you get a strong block in the right position it should get that deeper cold west even with a shortwave.
  21. Whilst the ECM has been getting all the attention the best news from the last two days is the big improvement in the UKMO. Take yesterdays 12hrs run T144hrs chart and compare it to todays T120 hrs day chart: Yesterday: Today:
  22. Not quite the excitement of yesterday evenings ECM run. Its likely that the PV will have one last attempt before pressure starts to build into Greenland . The UKMO has moved overnight to a colder solution which is good news. The GEM is stunning in terms of that cold. The GFS is a little slower. Overall a good start to the day. It would of course have been even better if the ECM was as bullish as last night but the overall pattern is similar.
  23. Perhaps Friday is pub night at the Met Office and they just rush to get out ! I would be shocked if the UKMO is correct against the ECM op and mean at day 4. Even the GFS is much better. We’ll see in the morning .
  24. Yes bizarre ! This really is a stand off because the ECM mean really couldn’t be any more behind the op at day 4 and if you get to that point the UKMO simply can’t verify .
  25. The UKMO do take account of the ECM op and it’s ensembles . They have been known to modify their raw output although to be honest the only people that look at those fax charts is us weather anoraks ! The main thing is the UKMO has improved from its 00 hrs run and at least it’s moving in the right direction.
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