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nick sussex

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Everything posted by nick sussex

  1. Talking of France , in some areas it’s recommended that homes install lightening protection systems . Thankfully not here ! I hate thunderstorms ! I know a lot of members really like them but I always fear that bang and no power!
  2. nick sussex

    France weather

    Three warm days in a row ! Finally some decent weather although a few thunderstorms are forecast .
  3. nick sussex

    Stormchase Day 13 Colorado : Reports and pictures

    Great pics especially the sunset supercell. Thanks to all the team out there.
  4. nick sussex

    Dust storms kill dozens in India

    Absolutely awful . It always seems to be those poor communities which suffer the greatest from these storms . As if life isn’t hard enough they often have to contend with these weather extremes .
  5. nick sussex

    France weather

    The strange spring weather continues . After a lovely warm spell that’s changed and there’s been some fresh snow in the Pyrenees and I had to put the heating back on!
  6. nick sussex


    OMG that’s so funny!
  7. nick sussex

    Met Office loses BBC contract

    I still think the BBC should never have parted with the Met Office .
  8. nick sussex

    France weather

    Yes the best for many years . I’ve been to the eastern side a few times , most recent on the way to Barcelona as it’s quicker to go that route. Really warming up here now , I’ve brought my shorts out at last!
  9. nick sussex

    France weather

    Yes there’s still quite a bit as although it’s been warm it’s been mainly dry . It’s been a much better skiing season than for many years although the resorts are now closed for the season . Its always a bit sad when the snow starts disappearing, roll on November.
  10. nick sussex

    France weather

    Some great weather over the last week here. It’s been a late spring and the winter was the dullest since I moved to France.
  11. Thanks to all who contributed to this thread over the winter months . Certainly that SSW delivered for coldies , let’s hope we get another next winter but a bit earlier in the season .
  12. Easterlies in April are generally horrible affairs with cool grey conditions, drizzle and murk! For any hardened coldie still seeking something wintry a northerly is preferrable. Thankfully the ECM op isn’t supported towards the end of its run, of course in winter we’d like its op run and want it to verify but now this late I’m hoping no!
  13. Roll on November when we can get back to our cold and snow chase! Seriously though it’s felt like a very long winter. All the best synoptics turned up right at the end which is a shame . Having said that the depth of cold both in the beast and mini beast was quite exceptional for the time of year , the former in terms of windchill was probably something younger members hadn’t experienced before. So rare has that type of easterly been in recent years.
  14. If you compare last nights fax chart at T96 hrs with todays to T72 hrs you can see just how much it’s changed in relation to low pressure in the Atlantic , a flattening of that with the block to the nw pushing further south .
  15. If only these outputs had shown up a month earlier , the UKMO looks quite cold and will it be just a bucket of cold rain or something a bit more wintry? Its amazing how long it’s taken to nail down the Easter weekend weather with the models all over the place for days .
  16. A continued climb down from the ECM which has continued to downgrade snow prospects for most of the UK. At the same though there’s less emphasis on milder air moving nw into the UK later on. Cold air remains close throughout to the north so there could be some marked differences across the UK. Very hard to see some last minute changes to advect that deeper cold air to the ne right into the UK. The issues start quite early with the shortwave across most models failing to separate properly from the troughing and tracking too far east, the high to the ne is also poorly orientated. It’s a shame that things haven’t quite fallen into place this time , still a chance for northern coldies though.
  17. It’s ironic that there’s too much amplification which ends up with the jet digging south too far west. There’s a reluctance to disrupt any energy se and so the inevitable result is that milder air moving nw from the Med. The are still differences between the outputs re the low set up over the UK but all have that unfavourable jet .
  18. March has been a weird month so far. Bitter cold right at the start then average for two weeks, then the mini beast and now the chance of more cold . If there is to be more cold it would be good to see that deliver one last real blast for the UK and not a mediocre affair . Then I’d like to see a change to warmer weather. The evolution to more cold is a lot more complicated than the previous two spells , the ECMs early set up at just T96 hrs gives the UK a much better chance. Given the timeframes you’d really want to see tonights GFS 18 hrs run moving at least some way towards that , indeed you can see at just T72 hrs differences upstream between the ECM and the GFS/UKMO.
  19. Almost a stunning run from the ECM for the time of year but just missing some trough disruption around day 7 to day 8. Its then you want to see energy heading ese to stop the milder air from feeding nw from the Med . Its still the best of the big 3 but there are marked differences with its handling of the pattern to the nw at just day 4.
  20. Some very big differences as early as T96 hrs. The ECM has a much weaker shortwave which separates from the main trough . It also holds back the deeper low near Greenland. Its key to get the shortwave sufficiently south before the hangback to that other low starts causing issues . The early timeframe is key to get the cold into the UK before that hangback drama. Still problems with a lack of trough disruption as low pressure becomes slow moving to the sw of the UK.
  21. The set up looks tantalizingly close to something exceptional for the time of year with some remarkable cold to the ne. The depth of cold for the end of March is extremely rare which means the stakes are high for coldies . The GEFS have loads of different solutions in terms of trough set up which really reduce confidence in the outlook. The main issue at present is the hang back of low heights to the nw and the depth of low pressure near the UK, and also the amount of trough disruption, there’s a reluctance to drive sufficient energy into central southern Europe. A lot to be resolved but the early timeframe is important as it sets the boundary for the initial cold, in terms of how close that is to the UK. It could still go either way.
  22. Yes it’s an interesting NH profile . A bit of luck and the UK could see something quite outlandish for the time of year , equally it could hit the buffers. Quite high stakes for coldies , I do think this is the last chance for something more widespread.
  23. Now that football decides to anchor itself to the sw! This run could easily go pear shaped, too much south push and not enough se and not enough trough disruption . I’m afraid the juries still out . With a few tweaks this could be a very interesting wintry spell of weather , equally you could end up with the pattern too far west and north and milder air pushing up from the Med.
  24. So close from the ECM, more trough disruption se and there could be a snow event. Its important to get low heights into Southern Europe. Still much better than the UKMO at day 6. Could still go either way, complex set up. It’s not a more straightforward evolution like the mini beast last weekend .
  25. More energy separation would really help. Its a shame that chunk of low heights near Greenland can’t just stick there and allow the shortwave to clear properly .