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nick sussex

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Everything posted by nick sussex

  1. You can always rely on the weather to even things up . After an extraordinary spell of warmth for both the UK and here in sw France it looks like all change . I don’t mind early spring warmth as long as it doesn’t last too long , it can cause havoc for nature if you then get a taste of winter so I’m quite happy to see this change coming . Nothing shouts much below average at the moment but early days yet with the return of Euro troughing .
  2. The models seem to gathering momentum for high pressure to get further north . Whats lacking at the moment is enough energy disrupting se. You can see on the day ten GFS 06 hrs run the issue there. However given the overnight changes we shouldn’t assume this is the end of the story . The latest update re the MJO suggested the ECM forecast is more likely to verify than the GFS/GEFS as the latter tends to overdo Rossby wave activity and those aren’t coupled with the ocean. And the GFS and GEFS were completely wrong re the recent MJO movements.
  3. Rapid changes overnight on the ECM. This looks very like the models responding to the movement of the MJO . Phase 7 takes high pressure further north , phase 8 should see heights dropping to the south . All the more remarkable because last nights ECM ensembles showed nothing in the way of cold for the next ten days . The MJO was really the only thing keeping us interested to see if that could change the pattern. We need a few more runs to see if this response is too quick or whether we have a chance of something wintry early March .
  4. Colder in North Africa than the UK. Sub zero 850s in Algeria and Tunisia whilst the UK gets 10+. The ECM refuses to move the high much and the limpet hangs on . The ECM looks like it could go on till T1000hrs and the high would still be there ! Overall barring some brief excitement on the GFS the rest look woeful for even a passing cold shot.
  5. Tentative signs the limpet high to the south might start leaving the scene by day ten on the GFS 12 hrs run . How much this is to do with the MJO hard to say. The current forecasts re-amplify that a bit and it hangs around phase 8 for a few days .
  6. Hi Dave yes we were promised a five star meal and ended up with spam fritters ! If the background signals were rubbish then our expectations would have been low .
  7. Amazing weather here if you like sunshine and having a barbecue ! Although it’s pleasantly warm the dew points are low so not a disaster for the ski resorts . Current temp 20c dew point zero so very dry air . Thankfully a lot of snow fell at my closest resort Cauterets before the early spring . No sign at all of the limpet high clearing off anytime soon . These types of spells aren’t that unusual for February. I just hope we don’t end up with a rubbish spring when the interesting synoptics that deliver in winter come too late and we end up with a lot of cold rain .
  8. This high is beginning to remind me of that limpet that appeared earlier in the winter. The ECM spreads show its going nowhere fast . Frustrating to have the last few weeks of winter eaten up like this . I think it’s safe to assume barring a miracle that any cold weather now will have to appear in March . I’d say this winter has been one of the absolute worst in terms of expectations falling flat . The PV lobe of death over ne Canada hasn’t relented. Its remarkable that once again a winter passes by without a proper Arctic blast northerly . As for the EC 46 and other longer range Met Office products clearly something has gone badly wrong. We’ve seen a lot of spin but put bluntly they have been epic failures !
  9. Well that was exciting . Thank heavens high pressure is finally in charge after all that recent wet weather! The ECM is great if you want an early barbecue but for cold its utterly dire . The priest is very close to giving out the last rites , coldies implore the doctors not to switch the machine off. It ends up in court , the tabloids get involved . Save Coldie ! Mobs appear outside the hospital dressed in ear muffs and scarves with a few Santa hats also seen amongst the melee! Will the machine be switched off or will a last minute court injunction save the day .
  10. The weather forecast debacle just highlights the issues with longer range outputs . The UKMO forecasts have been woeful and they’re probably relieved that most of the public don’t bother reading them however businesses sensitive to the weather do pay quite a lot for detailed longer range output . So this looks like quite an embarrassing few months for the UKMO and other outlets.
  11. Not the most exciting ECM run! I think what little patience coldies have left will be needed to see if the end of the month and early March can deliver a change . Some exceptional warmth is shown but at least it’s not wet windy and mild ! Any change if it does appear realistically will be towards the last few days of the month and that’s dependent on the MJO forcing a change because there’s little else going on that can deliver that. The MJO is currently in phase 8 , the forecasts take that towards the COD before re-amplifying the signal . Earlier the models did try to raise excitement levels from their current flatlining with that shortwave ejecting off the main trough between day 5 and 6 . The shortwave could have been upgraded to the trigger variety but sadly turned into a damp squib because of the lack of upstream trough disruption . We need rid of those bloated lows to the west and need to see energy disrupting towards Iberia and the western Med.
  12. The ECM is better upstream at day 7 than the GFS. The developing shortwave running into the base of the trough . Should help pull some energy nw by day 8 .
  13. It’s a shame we can’t get any more trough disruption to the west . We have a shortwave which ejects east between day 5 and 6 that’s the one that ends up near Norway. But we can’t get any energy heading se .
  14. Even though last years fun late Feb and March didn’t greatly effect me here it will live long in the memory just watching the event unfold for the UK. What really stood out was the depth of cold and the windchill and the max temps on several days were incredibly low for the time of year . Indeed bizarely it was the depth of cold which in effect shortened the longevity as it spilled much further west than you’d normally see helping to develop deeper low pressure as it hit the warmer seas west and sw of the UK and Ireland . So instead of something less intense and more likely to slide we saw that deeper low moving ne . Regardless the level of cold was unprecedented . It does show what can happen when you have the stars aligning perfectly .
  15. I think to be realistic we need to rule out any change for the next ten days . The high is likely to just hang around unable to get far enough north . The MJO is looking messy . The models have it in phase 8 as of today but then weaken it before it doubles back into a stronger phase 8. The issue all winter is just how much effect this will have but at this point it’s really the only thing out there that could shuffle things up . If there’s a response to that it’s unlikely to effect things until the last few days of the month and early March . I’ m not a great lover of March snow as it always leaves you with that if only feeling , unless that is you get something outlandish like last year but I think that’s very unlikely . Certainly too early though to rule out some further snow and some colder snaps .
  16. Although it’s warm the dew points are on the low side . It’s not a humid warm tropical maritime flow. You’d be surprised just how well snow can hold up with lowish dew points . Where abouts are you going ? Most resorts in the Alps further east from here did see some fresh snow recently . Great conditions here in the Pyrenees at my nearest resort in Cauterets with 4 metres on the higher slopes.
  17. Brutal cold spells in March need sensational synoptics unfortunately . Last year was extremely rare and I can’t see that happening anytime soon . Of course some snow is always possible in March but in terms of meaningful cold and snow that can hang around it has to come really earlier in the month . I’m not throwing the towel in yet simply because of the MJO, that’s the only thing really at this stage that can deliver a change. Thats still expected to land in phase 8 . Let’s just say the GFS P was on the money that indeed does follow very close to the composite for the time lagged effect of phase 7 and 8 . We live in hope !
  18. A poor ECM run. By day ten no energy heading se and a lack of trough disruption to the west . It’s currently like pulling teeth to get any ridging sufficiently ne . The last chance saloon is about to close down! If it wasn’t for the MJO I would already be throwing the towel in on any meaningful cold and snow before winter ends.
  19. An opening at day 9 and 10 on the ECM with more energy heading se and a ridge extending further ne . Whether it survives till tomorrow morning is another question !
  20. The priest is about to deliver the last rites but the coldies surrounding the very sick MJO implore the medics to not switch off the machine ! The GFS delivers a dire 12 hrs run after a brief flirtation with something better earlier. The only reason I haven’t thrown the towel in yet is to see whether the MJO into phase 8 will make a difference to the model crud we’ve been subjected to for the last week.
  21. After some promise the ECM quickly hits the buffers and sinks without trace by day 9. Flat upstream and really by day ten we’ve reached rock bottom !
  22. The GEFS are a mixed bag at day ten . Some okay solutions in there but we don’t want a halfway house where the Russian high moves west but never far enough or sufficiently north and traps the UK on the wrong side of any upstream amplification. The MJO forecasts continue to disagree . The GFS takes a slower route to phase 8 . The ECM much quicker . I think I’m going to give it to the end of next week to see if we do see that MJO finally deliver some more solid changes in the outputs . We could still see something more interesting towards the last week of February but we are entering the last chance saloon now so don’t have the time to see the models doing a jam tomorrow routine .
  23. It’s not over till it’s over but it’s looking close to being over ! After some promise earlier in the week the models have just been on a downward spiral with any amplitude disappearing and the high stuck to the south with nowhere to go . The last vestige of hope is now the MJO . If that lands as forecast in phase 8 with a decent amplitude. With the time lag though we wouldn’t expect to see that show up in the models till later in the month.
  24. Pretty good overall agreement on the pattern . A brief northerly then the ridge close to the UK, before extending further ne . Where the high goes as in how far north east and the level of cold into the UK is still open to question . The easterly may however just be a stepping stone towards eventually pressure building to the nw or north.
  25. The UKMO which was the most amplified a few days back goes into the naughty corner ! It’s the flattest solution at day 6 . The ECM the most amplified and the GFS a halfway house . They all broadly agree on the early pattern though . After that to get the high to the east in the right position often takes several attempts. So to start the day some encouraging signs but we’ve been here before. Earlier on there a is a shot of cold from the north , and the ECM has that Channel Low , it’s marginal though .
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