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nick sussex

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Everything posted by nick sussex

  1. Still the ECM teases this morning ! It’s similar to last night . Bank of cold to the ne with the UK at the boundary between that and some milder conditions to the sw . I think we’d need to see more trough disruption , you really need to maintain low pressure to the south to stop a nose of high pressure pushing ne . The ECM just about manages that but it’s a close run thing . I wouldn’t bank on anything at this stage because of the fine margins . There’s a case for several outcomes one of which includes some decent snow fall . Equally it might turn into a damp squib . A bit more energy heading se to feed low heights over France and Italy is what you want to see and a more elongated low pressure to the west sw signifying that better trough disruption .
  2. ECM what a tease ! One of those set ups that could deliver some snow equally if the block edges too far west it could be a damp squib . It’s very finely poised but should keep the thread busy!
  3. A good GFS06 hrs run because it doesn’t phase the low near the UK with low pressure in the Atlantic . I think this is now becoming the bellwether for moving forward . It’s the phase tragedy on the ECM which signifies a less favourable upstream pattern .
  4. Yuk ! What happened ? I think there’s no point in trying to spin some obvious downgrades in the outputs . Putting aside the disagreements the set up seems to refuse to fall into place . The UKMO is clearly today’s life raft for coldies but even then it’s not that convincing. Although that keeps the shallow low near the UK and upstream energy further apart and less likely to phase . You can see it all goes Pete tong on the ECM with phasing and the bowling ball low coming out of the USA. The GEM shows a way to get something decentish, you really mustn’t have an early phasing of low near UK with upstream energy . The longer you keep lower heights to the south the better . Overall the models don't have that clean looking route to cold in terms of retrogression , so I think we’re in a holding pattern waiting to get a better handle of the upstream pattern . Earlier we do see that easterly but too early for anything of note but it will certainly feel colder early next week.
  5. Good post and I think the problem is people see the easterly and this has raised some undue expectations . The easterly doesn’t have suitable cold uppers esp this early in the season. The main interest could be what happens afterwards . At the moment the models are playing around with the block and the exact trough set up to the east . There’s plenty of cold air there and it’s getting the right jet track to get that sufficiently west. The main thing is to get the block and then wait to see how things develop , plenty of time for changes .
  6. Quite a turnaround from the UKMO which this morning had no jet cut back sw and sent any cold pool se. It just shows how difficult these set ups are for the models . You can also see the GFS is struggling between runs now theres a more expansive cold pool over Europe on this run . Overall though lots of interest for coldies .
  7. From filet steak to economy burgers ! Unfortunately the ECM delivers the latter whilst the GFS is dining at a good restaurant . However the marked differences occur past day 7 and the ECM is okay in the grand scheme of things . The GFS transition is quite clean the ECM looks rather messy but still has scope for improvement . When you have the location of the PV lobes as shown in both outputs there’s lots of room in between to develop some interest so for the timebeing I’m very much in the glass half full camp. A colder outlook is likely the detail will take time to nail down so I hope there’s not going to be too much deflation in here because this ECM op run didn’t deliver the eye candy of the GFS op.
  8. OMG that block looks great on the GFS 06 hrs run! Very exciting to see these types of outputs . Time to put the Christmas decorations up!
  9. Horrible output if you like mild weather ! Right who hacked the overnight models ? Some great output to start the day and an upgrade from last night . I’m not sure we should be drawing comparisons with 2010 though , that was truly exceptional and there’s a long way to go . The interest in the shorter term is whether the forecast cold pool could support some snow . At this range the 850s are liable to change so you never know !
  10. Tonights ECM op was an upgrade in terms of bringing the upper cold pool in towards the UK but we are talking about day 7 onwards and these cold pools are like spot the ball for those who remember that far back ! Looking at the De Bilt ensembles the control run looks interesting !
  11. Overall good agreement in the medium term , high pressure in charge initially bringing some mild weather before a change of orientation brings some colder conditions from the east . Cloud amounts are going to be difficult to pin down , much depends on the exact flow direction . The cold pool is liable to change between runs. There seems little chance of a return to any Atlantic domination in the next two weeks . Which I’m sure is a huge relief for parts of the UK who have suffered some large rain totals and generally crxp weather in recent weeks. After the easterly the ECM tries to bring a shallow low northwards but it looks messy overall but the location of the PV lobes continues to offer interest for coldies. Expanding on that high pressure likely to hang on with continued chances for some colder conditions .
  12. Lol! Oh dear faux cold gate ! It wouldn’t be same without our annual faux cold incident ! Anyway just so you don’t have to ring the faux cold trauma unit I’ll refrain from using that term until this time next year !
  13. Tonight’s choice isn’t too bad . Faux cold or real cold ! The infamous faux cold debate , we have this every winter and for newer members at this time of year under high pressure we can develop colder conditions even when the upper air at first sight looks pretty mild . High pressure centered over Scandi comes in a variety of what it delivers in terms of upper air profile . So into the weekend and next week temps dropping looks like a good bet but the main uncertainty at the moment is where any upper cold pool goes . Its always the same story in these types of set ups , lots to be resolved there but Euro blocking is generally better modelled by the ECM .
  14. I’d rather see the GFS the last to the party! You’d always want the Euros onside in these set ups . We’ll see tonight , there’s not really a big difference in the overall NH set up so regardless of the initial disagreements on the cold pool the outlook looks more interesting.
  15. The GFS06 hrs run refuses to backdown on the cold pool. Its quite unusual to see the ECM less interested as normally the GFS has more of a problem with Euro blocking . The key here is the cutback in the jet . The ECM has the jet going se taking the cold pool away with it , the GFS you’ll see on the jet stream charts brings the jet sw towards the Low Countries . Putting aside those differences longer term something is stirring !
  16. OMG you must be psychic ! Had quite a few visitors over so not been on for a while but I’m back now and it looks like a good time given the models ! It looks much better for the UK now after some pretty awful weather , and we’re back to chasing cold pools around . Quite a difference between the ECM and the GFS. Even without the cold pool temps are set to lower near the ground even though on the ECM 850 temps are nothing to write home about . Next few runs key to see whether the ECM starts cutting the jet back in towards the UK . Overall though given recent conditions a return of high pressure I’m sure is welcome .
  17. Continued changes now with the outlook past the northerly . The key thing in these situations is to maintain low pressure over northern Italy , this acts as a block to any milder air moving nw from the Med. As we’ve seen today the main area of low heights to the nw doesn’t head se and instead energy disrupts se. Its still an evolving situation so past the northerly things could get a bit more interesting depending on where the models decide to stick low pressure to the south . And the orientation of the Scandi block , you really want that aligned from ene wsw so that could direct any deeper cold in towards the UK.
  18. Interesting how nearer the time the bloated troughing to the west is disrupting more with stronger height rises to the ne. Preferably the energy needs to be transferred more se rather than south towards Iberia . Overall though some good overnight changes for coldies . Still more changes to come and we’ve seen from past set ups that the models tend to be less than convincing when you’re dealing with trough disruption .
  19. Yes just goes to show you can have a weak PV and still end up with everything in the wrong place ! Still a long way out so it might change nearer the time .
  20. After the northerly a lot of uncertainty because of the interaction of low pressure to the west and low pressure to the south . The ECM pulls a lot of milder air into Central Europe , there’s some quite decent cold pooling over Scandi so the question is whether than can get pulled west and engage fronts . What were not seeing is good trough disruption at the key timeframe and the models disagree with where low pressure sets up to the south . However that might change given the timeframes . So could be a range of outcomes post the northerly , some more interesting than what’s currently on show.
  21. This mornings ECM op developed low pressure towards northern Italy , that’s what we want to see tonight . We don’t want the UKMO solution of the low towards Iberia , that solution won’t anchor the Scandi high in a favourable position and will allow milder air to work nw into Central Europe .
  22. It’s amazing the lack of drama with this northerly ! The models have counted down without a last minute curveball thrown in ! I know most attention is on the northerly but after that what happens to the east and is it possible to get some snow as the Atlantic tries to move in. It would be exceptionally rare to get frontal snow this early in the season. I still think that’s a long shot . Preferably that low near Iberia needs to be further east to stop any milder Med air getting thrown too far nw. So as much as people are looking to the north , later on dew points temps over northern mainland Europe are the area to watch in case we see better trough disruption to the west .
  23. Can we turn the clock forward a month ! A great set up just a little bit too early . The models are in very good agreement for the initial cold snap . The Scandi high development looks more likely today as the PV looks weak with the main energy heading se to the west of the UK . Overall it looks like a Canadian style change from warm autumnal conditions to cold bypassing the more mediocre bit in the middle . Some early season snow for higher elevations in the north , still not convinced of anything more widespread given how early in the season we’re seeing this good set up. I wouldn’t look further than day 8 , a lot going on and the models look a bit of a mess after that point .
  24. The northerly toppler doesn’t seem to be the bog standard two cold days then a return to a sw flow type . Both the ECM and now the GFS18 hrs run show a half hearted attempt from the Atlantic. So what comes after isn’t nailed on especially with that forecast reduction in the strat. Unusually we’ve seen this colder snap upgraded , initially the high looked like being too close to the UK with too much energy heading over the top but with time the high has displaced further to the nw . Its of course a bit too early for anything of note , but still interesting for late October .
  25. Just reading the NCEP discussion . They’re happy with a more negative tilt to low pressure towards New England , also they talk about a high amplitude pattern over Canada . This does give an opportunity for a cold shot into the UK. Preferably we’d like to see any low pressure deepen in that NE area and with that neg tilt this could help build a better ridge to the nw . Its a bit early for anything of note but mainland Europe can cool rapidly at this time of year so a cold shot and some early snow towards Scandi and Northern Europe could help us down the line .
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