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nick sussex

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Everything posted by nick sussex

  1. Is the UK going to be writing the guide to ten different ways to avoid the cold ! This is turning into several open goals missed , just when you think the opportunity is there another chance is hoofed over the cross bar ! Putting that frustration aside the models are still trying to build pressure to the nw and desperately trying to drop a trough south towards Scandi . Given the timeframes involved things could still turn out more favourable, can we just get a couple of decent strikers on to put the ball in the net this time .
  2. Some encouraging signs that the pattern might be about to change course . Pressure rising to the nw and some troughing trying to head se into Scandi . We need to lose the Russian high which is being a pain . Earlier the models still seem to be trying to resolve what happens with the low moving se and its interaction with shortwave energy to the ne of the UK .
  3. Quite a big change on the 06 hrs ICON by day 5. It keeps the upstream low and the one to the ne separate with no phasing .
  4. Normally we bemoan the Azores high limpet , this time the Russian slug high seems intent on just sitting there at a poor orientation. Quite frustrating to see the purple blob of doom not over Greenland but yet somehow the UK is stuck with some underwhelming weather and more horrid rain .
  5. The UKMO is currently the best of the big 3 at day 6 in terms of a chance of something wintry as the upstream low heads in . Both the ECM and GFS have unfavourable phasing .
  6. Interesting UKMO. The models seem to be making a real drama over the interaction between the upstream low and the Euro troughing . The more elongated the upstream low the better.
  7. Quite an unusual scenario . One low moving north as another shortwave moves se between day 6 and 7 . This interaction and pivot isn’t really what we want to see but before it unravels there could be some snow for higher elevations in the north . Overall it looks very messy and complicated . At the moment we have a chef as in some good background signals with some high quality ingredients making a very average looking meal .
  8. What’s complicating matters is the behaviour of the Euro troughing . We don’t want that being sucked nw as it engages the disrupting low to the west .
  9. Although not as good as the earlier GFS 00 hrs run some relief we didn’t see the phasing tragedy of the ECM . This is the key moving forward . As the deep upstream low sw of Greenland tries to move in if that phases with shortwave energy to the north it’s game over , if it doesn’t it’s still game on .
  10. Just caught up with the outputs . GFS has upped the stakes and shows a route to something colder , as we see a more favourable Euro trough set up and better aligned high to the north . The ECM in a word . The mother of all shortwave phasing tragedies !
  11. The ECM unravels at the end because of an SPT . Shortwave phasing tragedy at 216hrs . Also the initial low moving se is too deep , this needs to be shallower . You don’t want any interaction between the main low to the west and the low over the nw of Germany . At this range those issues could still be resolved more favourably for coldies .
  12. The thing with this is it’s likely to develop more as the cold air hits the warmer North Sea . This then will slow the advance of the deeper cold . What we want is the pattern further se . Key is a strong high to the north. Anyway that’s a long way ahead . The key initial developments are days 6 into 7.
  13. Getting there slowly . We could do with the Euro troughing a bit further to the se . Overall though very encouraging from the GFS up to day ten .
  14. Good consistency from the GFS . The digging upstream troughing forcing the ridge ne ahead of it . We’re looking to develop a lobe of high pressure to the north , this will help deflect more energy se as the next upstream low tries to move in.
  15. The GFS is certainly an eye opener with as I like to call it the hump of hope! That hump of high pressure with the shortwave energy tracking se through the UK . SMs first pic in his post is what I’m referring to. A deceleration in zonal winds and the MJO movement should really give some weight to its output . Indeed both it and the ECM are similar in their overall NH patterns . The one thing missing currently is a clear route to getting some deeper cold into the UK . What we see upto day ten is a lot of energy heading se through the UK with the Azores high displaced . So that’s very positive , we do need some changes to the ne to bring some deeper cold further sw towards the UK . Certainly that’s possible. And there’s bound to be more changes over the coming days .
  16. I wonder whether the day 7 chart might end up being further west . The shortwave drop down point is often poorly modelled , the GFS in particular is more likely to have the pattern too far east. A bit more amplification upstream is still possible given the continued movement of the MJO.
  17. A bit more depth to the cold showing up on both the GFS and UKMO upto day 6 so there could be a surprise or two for more elevated areas of the north .
  18. It’s getting messy at day ten . But overall this is an upgrade to the earlier run . Main thing early on is the Euro trough , a few more changes and we could yet see something colder . And the UKMO has improved so a decent start. Let’s hope the ECM doesn’t drop the baton.
  19. The GFS trying now to retrogress the high . Note the dig south of the upstream troughing south of Greenland .
  20. A slightly better Euro trough set up so far on the GFS 12 hrs run at T162hrs . This means the cold pool is a bit more expansive eastwards and the deeper cold air to the ne a bit further sw. The key thing is we want the Russian high to get lost , it’s of no use at the moment , we want a separate high pressure cell over Scandi to be the driver with lower heights on its se flank .
  21. Some very interesting synoptics just lacking some deeper cold to tap into . The overall NH pattern is positive for coldies , just not quite getting the pieces in place yet to deliver some of that deeper cold . This might still change , we still need to see the exact set up of the Euro troughing nearer the time which could make a difference .
  22. I’m not sure I understand . The block is already a HLB and is being supported by low pressure to the south . Pressure is rising ne wards if you follow from day 7 to 8 . My only criticism of the ICON is the low could be further se but apart from that it’s really a great run .
  23. Did anyone order a cross polar flow ! Quite amazing looking ICON . I expect bedlam will break out in here if that’s replicated by the other models tonight .
  24. A lot of messing about by the models with last nights downturn for coldies followed by a more positive start today . Its very hard to have much confidence until they settle down . I think we’re in a holding pattern ! There are certainly more things in favour of colder weather but the exact route to that still needs to be resolved .
  25. True . And generally in the UK if it can go wrong it does . I’m taking a glass half full approach, the background signals are good , let’s hope that transfers to the outputs .
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