nick sussex
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Everything posted by nick sussex
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Yes I think most thought we’d get to around that time . Once the models latch onto a progressive signal it normally ends this way . The signal is even stronger today with as you said some ending the excitement by the 18/19 . I use that term with some sarcasm ! I’d prefer the GEM solution which keeps the rain and muck further away . This is when the ECM now delivers the parting of the Red Sea and throws a morsel of hope to coldies ! Come on ECM you know it makes sense !
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The models barring timing differences and the odd ensemble member which survives the carnage bring a rather depressing outlook towards next weekend . The Canadian troughing ejects at rapid speed , flattens the pattern and very little energy heading se . I don’t think anyone saw this rate of collapse . The ECM to come but it would be close to a miracle if that didn’t follow the other models .
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Just catching up with the evening outputs which to be frank are underwhelming after Friday . Just too much energy spilling east . There were some signs earlier that the energy would split with some heading se . But the PV blob looks remorseless going by the day ten means . The UKMO tries to split the energy but still finds an annoying shortwave to the nw . It’s a bit frustrating in all honesty that the renewed upstream energy decides to turn up after downing a whole lot of steroids ! At least there’s a week of more interesting weather before the crapola hits the fan . And although disappointing to see the block up sticks at the first sign of trouble some will at least see some snow and likely the odd surprise along the way . I’d give it till tomorrow to see if we could just squeeze out less energy upstream . It’s still just that far out in timeframe to hope for some changes .
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The GFS the most progressive solution . The ECM makes changes upstream but still pushes too much energy eastwards . Still time for that to change with more energy heading se . The GFS is an outlier solution in the ne Pacific as it allows a ridge to move sw earlier than the others which helps to eject the Canadian troughing earlier and without any hang back so the whole thing barrels eastwards . Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5008188
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The GFS the most progressive solution . The ECM makes changes upstream but still pushes too much energy eastwards . Still time for that to change with more energy heading se . The GFS is an outlier solution in the ne Pacific as it allows a ridge to move sw earlier than the others which helps to eject the Canadian troughing earlier and without any hang back so the whole thing barrels eastwards .
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A dramatic overnight change in the GEM which went mobile crazy last night . Today the flow is more split with energy heading se . The UKMO looks good upto day 6 and sort of drops the Ming vase at day 7 but still cold . Some energy moving se but you expected a better looking day 7 . The GFS not as good as last nights 18 hrs run but it does look a bit suspect given the UKMO , GEM and ICON runs . The uncertainty in the medium term is really how the Canadian troughing ejects . The whole lot moving east or whether some of that energy splits se. Surely more changes to come there .
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The northerly we can tick off . The Atlantic low effecting the UK , still a question mark . A few shallowish shortwaves effecting parts of the UK , I think that’s likely so some more prolonged snow for those lucky areas l Any proper breakdown another question mark. Could be some parts stay in the cold for longer .
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The wheels come off later on the ECM as the Canadian troughing is ejected but then sort of runs out of puff . The ECM is a bit like the GFS later which is somewhat bizarre given the divergence in the ne Pacific . And also bizarrely the ECM is a close match to the UKMO in that region but we can see two quite different outcomes downstream . If we accept that the ECM GFS idea of ejecting that troughing is more likely we then now have to see whether we’ll see more of a split in energy and so could see some wedges of heights which can at least keep some parts still in the cold with continued snow chances . The UKMO doesn’t have a great track record at day 7 but a combo of the Euros might be okay . The GFS has that progressive bias . If we are to see a bit of a reset then it can take a few runs to settle down. Earlier there’s a lot going on , the brief but potent north to nw flow . Then the Atlantic low drama , a few other shortwaves thrown into the mix . It’s hardly bridge night at the village hall ! So a lot to keep us interested .
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I think I’d call it dog vomit ! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5007290
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So the GFS 06 hrs run moves towards the Euros . The interest now moves onto that upstream troughing . The ECM has the more amplified set up . The direction of energy is se . The GFS has the flatter troughing with the energy moving east . The upstream troughing is now key moving forward in terms of extending the cold . Anytime you get energy moving se good things can happen .
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That’s funny because the end of 1978 31st December I was flying back from Cyprus with family into Heathrow and there was loads of snow and the North Circular was bedlam . And I’m flying back next week from Cyprus around the time of the Atlantic low drama . Is this a sign ! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5005919