
nick sussex
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nick sussex last won the day on February 5
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It’s a shame there’s no decent ridging to the nw just at the time there’s some very cold air to the north . The GFS briefly brings something colder se but it’s a cold outlier and isn’t supported by the UKMO in terms of evolution beforehand . The story at the moment seems more about severe gales than anything wintry . A pretty horrid outlook overall and for coldies I think a lot of patience is going to be needed. Let’s see what the ECM has to say , it surely can’t get any worse than that GFS output .
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What’s complicating matters is the trough set up . So the elongation out into the Atlantic, the coldest air can’t head south until that clears further se . The models want to develop a shortwave which runs se then east which helps to pull that away to the se . Earlier the ECM at day 7 does try to develop a more slider low , that could bring some interest if this is more shallow .
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Model output discussion - late November
nick sussex replied to Paul's topic in Weather Discussion - Winter
That’s the thing Feb sometimes in here we get a bit hung up on strong blocking but a wedge of positive heights can still deliver . Theres been some notable UK snowfalls with a more southerly tracking jet and those wedges helping to keep the UK on the cold side of the jet . Now before there’s a stampede to the nearest sledge shop I’m not saying it’s going to happen here ! We’d need things to come together favourably and that’s often very elusive in UK winters ! -
Model output discussion - late November
nick sussex replied to Paul's topic in Weather Discussion - Winter
Yes and if you look at the ECM spreads the largest is towards the west and sw on days 9 and 10 . The actual troughing upstream is still showing quite a variation . The se tracking jet looks likely as the ECM spreads don’t suggest the PV will be blowing up to the north . More likely it’s further to the nw. -
Model output discussion - late November
nick sussex replied to Paul's topic in Weather Discussion - Winter
Tonight’s models offer up the prospect of a soggy mess or something more wintry . There’s an opportunity at day 7 on the ECM if the upstream troughing is not as deep and more amplified to get a weaker low moving se at day 8. The GFS has the jet quite far south so in that scenario better possibilities could open up . I think we’ve reached a scenario where things could tip either way with just some relatively smallish changes on a global scale . -
Model output discussion - late November
nick sussex replied to Paul's topic in Weather Discussion - Winter
Hard to have much faith in the outputs at the moment . Any upstream amplification at the longer range over the last few weeks has been toned down nearer the time . Now we’re onto the next drama . The models temporarily looked really ugly for cold with the cold snap imploding and then an ominous looking ramping up of the PV to the north . Today we see the models trying to split the PV again with the jet pushed further south again . So we’ll have to see how this develops . The ECM does have a cluster of colder solutions by days 9 and 10. Interestingly just in time for the general election ! -
Model output discussion - late November
nick sussex replied to Paul's topic in Weather Discussion - Winter
You just know it’s going to happen . The public having to trudge their way to the polls in driving snow ! I actually think the only group where turnout might be higher than normal is with most netweather members . Who will be combining their duty as citizens to vote with playing in the snow ! Anyway back to the models ! They can be a bit premature to cleanly split the PV at the longer range , and you need that to happen to allow pressure rises to the nw. So best be cautious about this until it comes within closer range time wise .