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nick sussex

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nick sussex last won the day on January 9

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  1. feb1991blizzard It sums up the UKs luck in a nutshell . As the cold is heading sw from Scandi in rides the spoiler. I’m beginning to think the UK is cursed . It’s been a catalogue of misfortune for the whole winter .
  2. The ECM does bring some interest after a shaky start . It did drop the ball between day 3 and 4 where it has the more progressive upstream trough . This then means any cold pool gets thrown nw . The differences between the ECM and UKMO highlight the impact of relatively small changes in the depth and track of any cold pool . Later the ECM tries to salvage affairs with the low trying to track ne and some colder pooling to the ne heading sw .
  3. Lukesluckybunch This is the January spell we’re talking about . The ECM was struggling even within T72 hrs .
  4. The last time we were chasing a cold pool from the east the ECM was awful and really was very slow to develop that and bring it into the UK . It was one of its worst performances of the winter . In terms of the overall pattern it’s of course frustrating that this more interesting set up appears in March when we’ve had to endure a woeful February .
  5. Chasing cold pools around a Scandi high . What fun ! We have been here before many times . Certainly I wouldn’t rule out something colder from the east or ne . Regardless of the ECM op looking less enthusiastic this morning the signal for high pressure to the east or ne remains .
  6. The ECM might well have some coldies coming out of hibernation ! I’m not a lover of spring cold which often leaves one feeling underwhelmed at the good winter synoptics arriving too late but it would be rude not to indulge the ECM for a few runs !
  7. I’m not a fan of cold springs and you always get the feeling it’s just rubbing salt into the wounds of coldies as the perfect winter synoptics turn up too late . The SSW due around the 5th March does seem to show signs of effecting the trop quite quickly . Whether that adds up to a reminder of winter still to be determined . A sign that things might be developing on that front is the troughing anchored to the west of the UK starts to disrupt energy se and elongates rather than just the revolving more bowling ball trough set up .
  8. The GFS and UKMO on the same page at day 7 . The low over the UK fills and pressure building to the ne and east . This looks like a response to the falling zonal winds . The GFS then keeps high pressure in charge . Shame there’s no cold to latch onto at this point . The GEM wants to keep a more windy and unsettled spell with low pressure in charge . Although it could eventually turn colder as the jet sinks further south.
  9. blizzard81 It has been a very bizarre winter . The strat forecasts which have in the past been reliable have bitten the dust . We’ve had some decent ingredients but have ended up with the food equivalent of Spam ! It will probably go down as the biggest recent failure in longer range modeling.
  10. Rain All Night It used to be that strat forecasts were much more reliable than the normal outputs . Sadly that hasn’t been the case , combined with the useless EC46 fantasy charts and the ensemble colder clusters at medium range imploding it’s been a very poor show from the NWP when predicting cold .
  11. Any interest isn’t till FI . We have seen this script before and have the sledges gathering dust in the garage to show for it ! As you head towards the end of February you need better synoptics to deliver and we need some northern blocking if we’re to tap into a decent cold source. A two hour slush fest just isn’t going to cut it . Personally I’m not a fan of cold springs where the perfect synoptics turn up to remind you of what might have been ! I love snow and cold but have a low opinion of slush !
  12. And yet another change on the ECM . It’s becoming a total embarrassment at longer range . We’ve had a series of fails from the ECM .
  13. At the moment it looks like another ECM UKMO fail . Together with the GEM it looks like the GFS was more correct . The outputs look like treading water and now apparently the SSW could have ruined another more promising trop pattern . It seems like heads you lose tails you lose .
  14. Johnp The GFS 06 hrs run didn’t read the script . It was supposed to throw a few scraps to us coldies. Instead it’s delivered a horror show .
  15. I’m willing to hold on for a few more days as I’m a sucker for punishment ! The zonal winds have peaked and are set to fall rapidly from now so maybe we might see some better outputs . Models don’t always like these sudden changes . It might sound like straw clutching but we could still see something towards the end of February .
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