nick sussex

I'm not sure the medium term is that clear cut especially for Scotland and the north. The jet is quite far south and at this range might get shunted further south which could bring some colder and at times snowier weather especially for those regions. Whilst you have that lobe of high pressure near Iceland it would be premature to rule out some more wintry conditions which might even extend further south.

Yes Kante was a big loss, I don't think Ranieri would have let him go unless the player wanted to leave. The players couldn't be bothered and thought they could turn up and win games without the same ethos as last season.

They should have sacked some of the showboating players who couldn't be bothered to put the hard work in. Talk about ungrateful owners , a sad end to one of footballs best ever stories.

Interesting ECM run but the sort of output that leaves you thinking shame it didn't appear a few weeks back. As you head into March you really need to tap into deeper cold than whats on offer on the ECM. I think for those looking for a last proper gasp of winter we're going to have to see a lobe of the PV drop south which could happen if the pattern retrogressed. A shortwave complicates matters on the ECM which stopped better ridging nw into Greenland, overall it looks like a coldish start to March but nothing dramatic at this stage. If the ECM was on the right lines in terms of pattern which of course at this range is a big if, then you'd need to see the pattern retrogress so energy from the upstream troughing disrupting se a ridge building nw in towards Greenland and a chunk of that PV to the ne being pulled sw to help develop much deeper cold to tap into, the trouble some shortwave energy circled red develops earlier and then hangs around.

I think its best to remain cautious until we see the real interest showing up in the earlier timeframe. Given the countless disappointments over the last few months I won't be bringing out the ear muffs and woolie hat just yet. If it does turn much colder it will certainly come as a big shock down here where the weathers been sunny and warm for the last few days.

Was about to enter my hibernation mode and then woke up to todays outputs! They do seem to have picked up a signal to fragment the PV and develop some height rises to the nw. Earlier theres also a chance of some snow for Scotland and the especially n/ne England as we see a slowing of the troughing upstream and some disruption around the T102hrs mark, there could be sufficient cold to undercut the precip. The UKMO is less interested but it was viewed as a lower probability outcome upstream by NCEP.

Luckily the stakes aren't higher and the UKMO refusal to even deliver a brief colder shot isn't that much of a big deal. The ECM then goes onto produce a tightly coiled PV to the north and big departure from its 00hrs run. I think whats quite evident this winter is just how little amplitude we've seen upstream. Whether the ECMs PV is the last gasp which you can sometimes see as a reaction to a SSW before it implodes or whether this is a sign of a flat jet and milder start to March we'll see in the next few days. The winter looks like going out on either a tragic excuse for a colder shot which would sum up the winter or milder conditions like the UKMO. Overall I think most want to put this winter to bed and move on. Of course there still might be some wintry interludes in March but thoughts of crunchy snow, ice days are now going to have to wait till next winter.

Some interesting patterns showing up on the ECM 12hrs run, not sure I'm in the mood for a cold spring after an underwhelming winter, it would just be so typical for the perfect winter synoptics to pop up too late.

Looks like the other models are slowly edging towards the ECM solution with splitting that shortwave energy upstream, originally they kept a train of that stopping the displacement of the Azores high to the nw. At the moment its not looking like any cold will last very long however the ECM at day ten upstream doesn't look bad, its likely the PV to the north will get pulled further to the nw as it engages that troughing over central Canada, it really depends how much dig we see upstream of the troughing over Greenland extending south as to whether we see a stronger ridge thrown ne ahead of that. Not outside the bounds of possibilities that the ridge won't develop further north around this time. The thought of another easterly isn't really filling me with much joy however and at this time of year a ne/n flow is generally better for cold unless a lobe of the PV is under the block to the east to feed deeper cold westwards.

The ECM whilst better earlier in terms of potential looks underwhelming at T240hrs with that bloated PV to the north. The 00hrs had a more fragmented PV at that timeframe. I think we'd need to see a lot more retrogression of the Azores high and the ridge then toppling more towards Scandi, not enough vertical in the ridging. Putting that aside we are seeing a divergence of opinion earlier and its all in relation to the movement of high pressure out of Canada, the ECM amplifies this which then helps to split that shortwave energy over the ne USA. Once you have that gap at T144hrs the Azores high can retrogress as the T168hrs output shows: Without that split in the shortwave energy then any cold will likely be delayed till much later or not happen at all and even then we still have problems with longevity of any cold because of the PV to the nw. First things first though, to have any chance of cold in around a weeks time the other models have to back this earlier timeframe.

The ECM clears that shortwave energy upstream and develops a low over the ne USA, this is key to how it develops that T168hrs output. The GFS keeps a train of shortwave energy which stops the Azores high from retrogressing nw. These differences start over the USA with how that Canadian high develops because that effects whether you clear that energy.

Frosty can I ask is your new avatar picture an ode to Knockers Sidney the squirrel? I don't know why but its had me really laughing, bless you! Anyway getting back to the models we are doing our best to remain interested which is hard going, I think we have to realistic and accept that the next week or so is going to be painful viewing as the Azores high pulls up its deckchair and theres no chance of cold whilst that's sitting over France. In around 8 days theres a chance we could see that pulled further west. The MJO has been a bitter disappointment so far this winter and hasn't really forced much in terms of changes that benefit colder prospects, it could do the decent thing and do something to earn its stay in this thread. I admit I have been one of the guilty posters who has been following this closely, piles of research papers later and all this effect on the NAO etc and its beginning to get on my txts, you know a bit like one of those z list celebs whose done bxgger all but seems to appear on the front pages of the press all the time. Anyway lets hope the morning outputs can give us something other than a fleeting northerly to discuss.

Oh no, not sure anyones in the mood to chase another easterly! Unfortunately we seem to be stuck at day 10 for any charts that show some interest. I'm giving it a few more days to see if any of these charts actually move forward but we seem unable to shake off the PV to the nw and that makes things complicated as we've seen for much of the winter. Unfortunately we're not seeing the MJO currently force much in the way of trop response something that was noted by NCEP in their update and even though the MJO is in record breaking territory in terms of amplitude its not counting for much at the moment. I'm giving it to Friday to see concrete signs of some changes otherwise I'm going to close this book on winter 2016/17 and put it in the promised much but delivered not very much category. Last winter was promised zip and delivered zip!

The ECM improves in terms of some potential towards day 9 and 10 and the GFS moves in the other direction. I think the issue still remains the reluctance of the outputs to remove a chunk of the PV over ne Canada. Theres no chance of ridging north whilst that remains there. If more amplitude does appear upstream then the troughing to the east from day 8 to 10 is well placed. It still overall looks a bit messy and complicated, the Azores high is trapped in and can't escape nw because of that shortwave energy off the ne USA. I still wouldn't rule out some cold towards the end of February , theres certainly a good source of that to the ne and any more amplitude upstream could deliver that south into the UK.

I'll be haunting this thread till early March, then I go into my semi-hibernation mode. Loving the extremes I tend to post less when they're less possible. March can be a funny month, even more so down here with some large variations in temps. I've had mid twenties in early March and also a few ice days, for the UK even with that moderating effect of the sea around its still possible to get some good snow, its more about getting the right synoptics. Of course there are certain things you can't have this late, inversions aren't going to happen and easterlies from the Continent unless they come in tow with a PV chunk injecting deep cold into the circulation won't deliver. The best sourced air generally as you head into early March is from the ne/n, the thing of course with any northerlies at this stage is you don't get stuck with showers just on windward coasts, inland convection normally kicks in. In March timing is quite important, I remember when I was still living in West Sussex we had a few northerlies and some heavy convective snow showers which managed to last long enough towards evening, then clear skies saw temps drops quickly preserving the snow. Of course if you have low dew points a decent snow cover can last in the shade during the day so as much as we'd all have preferred to see some good snow in the heart of winter, we can't turn the clock back and can just hope for something interesting late Feb/early March.