nick sussex

Thoroughly deserved point for Scotland . It would have been a travesty if they had lost this game . England should still qualify for the next round and hopefully Scotland can beat Croatia and get three home nations teams through with Wales .

UEFA and FIFA are just one rung lower on the ladder of shame.

The ESL abomination is crumbling ! Still makes one wonder why they thought they could get away with this in the first place . To show how deluded some of the Chairmen where . Perez the head of Real Madrid said the ESL was designed to save football ! Biggest load of tosh I’ve ever heard. The 6 English clubs should be fined and docked points and should not be allowed to just walk away from this mess . I say this as a very disgruntled Arsenal fan , actions have consequences!

Any cold at this time of year here would only give snow to much higher elevations and I’d be quite happy for it to stay warm here but of course for coldies in the UK I hope the deep cold makes a direct hit . The real interest is still quite a way out although the models look solid on the Greenland block as opposed to in the winter when there would be all manner of drama to get that to verify !

I’m not a big fan of cold conditions in April but if it’s going to happen you may aswell aim high ! Some quite unusual depth of cold is on offer for the time of the year , you do need though a direct hit. Both the ECM and GFS also bring down some shortwave energy south on the eastern flank of the high . Which could develop further interest for especially higher ground . Deep upper cold and sufficient instability at this time of year can provide some fireworks with some notable downdrafts so a rapid fall in temps with hail and snow as the freezing level lowers during heavie

I’d remain dubious of any potential colder spell until the ECM shows any consistent inclination to develop a more amplified ridge ne. The last week has seen the odd op run try and build that but that’s subsequently as far as it’s got . The next runs then look less interested and that’s been the pattern of the last week . Even if you do get a ridge ne you’d need a decent cold pool to deliver this late on so you’d need that more amplified ridge otherwise the cold will be directed too far south . There’s not a great deal of time to play with now given we’ll soon be into March

Both the GFS and the para continue to develop a pattern post day 8 which is more condusive to colder prospects . The main PV relocates further to the nw which reduces the energy heading into the Atlantic . Both show a slack pattern at that point which will allow wedges of heights initally and then further down the line some possible stronger blocking .

I’d be dubious of any colder possibilities until the GEFS start bringing more colder members counting down and not marooned at day ten and beyond. The ops seem to be in a repeat pattern of dropping a tease at day ten but this once again seems to not make much headway.

We seem to be marooned in a default tease mode ! Better later outputs which subsequently implode after a few runs . The ECM today decides to go for pressure rises to the north towards day ten . Whether this survives to see the light of day we’ll find out over the next few days . Before hand some exceptionally mild weather is being forecast with the Euro high aligned to bring that flow out of northern Africa . Its certainly looking like a month of extremes .

Let the fun begin ! Right folks last chance saloon time if you want a cold end to February . The ECM after several underwhelming runs shows a pretty typical way how you can progress from very mild southerlies to a possible colder east to ne flow . This run could have been better with more clearance between the upstream toughing and the shortwave ejected se towards the Azores , that would have allowed the ridge to nose more nw at day 7 . Then at day 8 you may not have phasing with the Azores shortwave and that troughing , this would have resulted in a sharper trough at that

Nothing to write home about unfortunately . But if this was a new trend it would call into question any high to the south taking charge. It does however show the PV already moving away from southern Greenland . With a few tweaks it could look better and I’m in two minds whether to cheer this solution on as the possible route out of the mild crud takes an awfully long time in the GFS.

I can only find one GEFS member which supports the UKMO day 6 solution . So 29 and the control run aren’t interested .

Differences developing upstream between the GFS and the UKMO by day 6. The former has a more inland runner developing shortwave which deepens rapidly , the latter has a more coastal low less developed . Differences also with the PV lobe , downstream the UKMO is more progressive and is trying to run a shortwave east into Scandinavia.

Thats more to do with the synoptics than the sun. However what good synoptics can deliver in the heart of winter won’t deliver in early spring. You need something spectacular to deliver ice days in early March , as we saw from 2018 it’s possible but rare . Expectations need to factor in the increase in solar energy and timing of any snow is more important . On the plus side increased inland convection means you often see wider falling snow for areas that often miss out in many winter cold spells .

Still not enough support to take the high further north and open the door to a possibility of a very late winter colder shot from the ne or east . The ECM is an absolute shocker which delivers the worst of all worlds , mild and wet later with any high flattened by a resurgent Atlantic . The models do though agree on some changes to the PV with the elongated feature running ne sw splitting and losing some of its intensity . I do find it funny when a cold spell ends at this time of the year some would like to see a sudden change to warmer conditions when the reality is spring can