nick sussex

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  1. I really would advise people to be wary of the medium term outputs from all the models until we get agreement on the earlier timeframe. Theres a reason we're beginning to see some wild swings. The ECM is vastly different this morning to last nights run, the GFS has also got into the act now between its 00hrs and 06hrs run. Even though the trend is for a more unsettled spell of weather the models are still trying to work out how we get there and what sort of unsettled that will be. We do have good support for high pressure developing over Canada, but its really the troughing formation ahead of that in the Atlantic which is now causing problems, how amplified will that be and how much it deepens and whether the Azores high ahead of it gets pulled a bit further west, ridges ne or gets flattened with a more southerly tracking jet.
  2. Just looking at the UKMO and that brings an area of colder uppers north at T144hrs, there could be some precip associated with that but given my lack of confidence in the outputs whether its still there tonight is doubtful. You can see though that any breakdown maybe a bit messy as the models are still playing with taking some energy se'wards.
  3. Some strange goings on overnight in the models with the GFS/UKMO sort of agreeing in the sense that they both take some energy se'wards. The ECM continues resolutely to stick to its earlier trend upto T144hrs before embarking on a new solution and one which is far more palatable for coldies as low pressure starts to take a more southerly route. I'm still suspicious of anything the models throw up in the medium term because of the MJO signal but I still believe if theres to be changes its not going to be a long drawn out slow change and these will come rapidly. So where we end up at day ten is still very much up in the air and really depends how much impact the MJO has, its often a battle between the true signal and other interference going on which makes it difficult to use the simple composite maps.
  4. The GFS 18hrs run so far just about manages to hang onto its previous trend although upstream it started to backtrack to the Euros. It ejects a shortwave east, the Euros have the same shortwave but that hangs onto the mothership and this whole system heads ne over the top with them. If somehow the GFS was on the right tracks the interest really would be the surface flow ahead of any fronts moving in from the west. It's all very slow motion stuff from the GFS, not exactly exciting but it looks to turn slowly colder during the week for the UK as a colder continental flow heads nw, the ECM/UKMO solutions look cleaner in terms of evolution but even they could slip into a more messier picture if they take a bit more energy se'wards.
  5. Looking at the ECM ensembles for De Bilt, still a strong cluster of solutions keeping that area in an east/ne flow for an additional 2 days compared to the op. The longer range do signal a more unsettled picture but before then it could be a messy picture. In terms of any support for the GFS op well the spread does show some energy heading se'wards. I've done the rough synoptics given the spread from the mean, I still think the ECM/UKMO are more likely to verify given they agree but stranger things have happened.
  6. Thanks BB for that info re Kyle and the MJO and also your great post. I read the research that he and Roundy conducted into the MJO and I think it does have merits. I think what peaked my interest in the current differences between his MJO forecast and the normal Wheeler Hendon was the progression of phases 6,7 and 8 as statistically significant signposts for a SSW given the time period of that progression. Whereas the others are skirting phase 8 then into phase 1 which is less correlated with a SSW. The issue with the WH forecast is the interference from Rossby waves and Kelvin waves and the odd cyclone thrown in for good measure, the last global tropics hazards outlook doesn't see cyclone formation in week 2 so this should be one less factor to worry about. I think if we're to see changes in the NWP then it will come quickly without much warning if the MJO does impact the NH pattern especially as going by the WH we would have gone from an MJO lying on the sofa for the last month to getting up and running a marathon!
  7. Quite bizarre to see the GFS and the GEFS so resolute with some energy heading se'wards around T120hrs and the ECM going in the other direction. Theres little support for the ECM op run in the GEFS at T144hrs and its almost as if they're reading some different background signals. I'm beginning to wonder whether this is MJO related. It will be interesting to see the ECM ensemble spreads later and if theres a large spread here: The ECM looks like it might send some energy se'wards towards those low heights over Iberia but doesn't follow through at T144hrs. Both the ECM and UKMO are similar so its probably more likely to get a GFS backtrack but we'll see tomorrow.
  8. The ECM thought about sending some energy se'wards at T120hrs but doesn't follow through at T144hrs. This would make a difference going forward. The GFS sends that energy se'wards so we still have a divergence here.
  9. There seems to be some conflict going on in the modelling with uncertainty over where that energy in the Atlantic goes. The GFS takes more se'wards initially but even the UKMO is debating that and we still see low pressure in the Med. So something has to give. The MJO might be causing some of this uncertainty and so until the above issue is resolved then we might still see an alternative way forward.
  10. I don't think JE likes the GFS much even though it delivered the same overall evolution as the next coming of Christ model the UKMO upto T144hrs! So basically UKMO delivers it feasible, GFS not feasible. The whole evolution stands or falls on the split shortwave so perhaps JE thinks the UKMO isn't feasible either. Confusing isn't it! lol
  11. Yes it might be the lower probability solution, we'll have to wait and see but the UKMO backs the GFS in terms of overall set up at T144hrs. It might be gone in the morning but theres quite a change coming upstream and with the MJO on the move I'm happy to wait a few more runs.
  12. Whats all this feasible business? The UKMO splits the shortwaves so what the GFS does initially is hardly outlandish and given the evolution relies on that split then its not exactly plucked a solution out of thin air. I don't have my doubts re feasible but just its low margin for error.
  13. I think you're being a bit hard on the GFS 18hrs runs, if you get the split shortwave then the evolution isn't way out there. That's the issue though and why I'd put a red warning on this run for very low margin for error and liable to cause undue mental harm on coldies! lol
  14. Its very fraught around the T120hrs mark, no split shortwave no chance of cold, we're reliant on a high pressure cell forming to the nw. Any high pressure towards Canada and west negative NAO does zip for us, all it does is leech the life force out of our own high to the north.
  15. This is the crucial initial bit, those shortwaves circled red need to split as they do here and the ECM didn't do this, it took them as one system ne and it was game over. The second thing to look out for is where the cross is over Canada, we don't want high pressure developing there, we want any high pressure to the north to be boxed in and not allowed to have its energy drained away by a leeching high over northern Canada. If we could see some troughing where the x is marked elongated and joining up with troughing in the ne USA and amplified then that would help.