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nick sussex

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nick sussex last won the day on December 14

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  1. Well the NAVGEM evolution is quite plausible given the others have something similar but a bit less amplified. Its not outlandish. As long as you get the upstream amplification that would tend to pull the limpet highs centre further west. Fingers crossed we can see more amplification develop.
  2. Reading todays NOAA update it looks like we will see a lot of energy thrown into the Atlantic between the cold air plunging south into the northern US states and high pressure over the se with moist air heading ne. .OVERVIEW... MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. STRONGLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES JUST NORTH OF HAWAII WILL HAVE DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS OF ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFYING A RIDGE JUST OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST (NORTH TO THE ARCTIC), WITH TROUGHING PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN SOME WAYS THIS SHOWS SIMILARITIES TO THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CONUS IN RECENT WEEKS, BUT A STARK DIFFERENCE THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A PERSISTENT, SHARP, AND WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS ARCTIC AIR IS ABLE TO PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WHILE COINCIDENTALLY, WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. The issue is the track of the jet into the UK. The reason for my surprising hope for Christmas is the re-emergence of some pressure rises to the ne. It maybe that the Atlantic is just too strong and we can't get enough trough disruption near the UK however this type of ECM spread isn't the worst I've seen. As you can see the main spread to the west and south which indicates that more se jet track with some energy disrupting se. So for the timebeing I'd wait to see whether this gathers pace and whether we can get enough pressure rises to the ne to get the UK on the polar side of the jet.
  3. Morning all A better start to the day for coldies than yesterday with the models playing with some different evolutions. Whilst nothing stands out within the T240hrs timeframe at least they want to displace the high to the sw further west and begin to angle the jet more se near the UK. This comes in response to high pressure building into the Arctic from the Pacific side and some renewed amplification upstream. At the moment Christmas Day is looking unsettled and close to average temp wise but the actual position of the jet this far out is subject to change. A southwards adjustment could develop some interest more especially for the north. Given the re-newed upstream amplification hasn't started the downstream effects of that might take some time to feed into the outputs. I wouldn't give up hope just yet regarding Christmas Day.
  4. The shortwave shown at T168hrs is a spoiler and stops some retrogression of the high to the sw. This then cuts through the high at T192hrs and also impacts on that ridge to the north. That small ridge could become important if the earlier shortwave is modelled differently. You're trying to remove the high to the sw and get its centre further west.
  5. Quite an amazing temp gradient across the USA at T240hrs from 0c 850 to around -20 in the space of a couple of hundred miles.
  6. Not quite the GFS horror show from the ECM and it was better upstream over the USA at T168hrs but then in rode a spoiler that stopped the limpet high pulling further west. This also effects the subsequent sharpness downstream. Theres more room for improvement in the ECM than the GFS so a few crumbs of comfort for coldies on an otherwise disappointing evening.
  7. Well so far not great today as the pattern has flattened out since yesterday and its going to be a struggle unless we get more upstream amplification before the PV gets pushed se. Todays MJO forecasts differ, the ECM is the quickest to move into phase 7, the GFS has started meandering in phase 6 before going into phase 7. I'm not sure whether that's why we're seeing the GFS now toning down the amplitude and also whether we're once again seeing a conflict in terms of whether the models are picking up the wrong MJO as they were last week. The MJO is of course only one piece of the puzzle. Lets see what the ECM does and see where we go from there.
  8. NOAA seem to think the ECM is doing the best job in handling the MJO. There were problems last week with suggestions the models were having difficulty in isolating the signal through all the background noise. In terms of the typhoon mentioned earlier in the thread the Global Tropics Hazards outlook mentioned one near the Phillipines but normally if that's an issue for the MJO evolution its highlighted. Multiple areas exist for possible TC formation during Week-1. The first is in association with a circulation near 9N/132E as of 6 UTC on 12 December, that is forecast to intensify and cross the Phillipines and enter the South China Sea over the next several days. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives this system a medium chance of development prior to the forecast period, but confidence is high in the system forming overall. Another system may form between 131-141E and 4-9N late in Week-1, or between this area and the southern Phillipines early in Week-2, with moderate confidence for development. The track of this system is forecast to be similar to the preceding TC, although likely slightly to its south. Elsewhere during Week-1, TC development is possible over the South Pacific between Vanuatu and Samoa. This disturbance is forecast to track eastward and potentially skirt southern portions of Samoa and American Samoa. All of the aforementioned TC development areas are broadly consistent with the MJO tracking from Phase 7 into Phase 8.
  9. Lets hope the ECM can deliver something better as its been a poor start to the evening. In terms of the ski resorts its the total opposite of last Christmas with new snow and then some dry cool weather. Should be some great ski conditions once this unsettled spell clears.
  10. They should be fired! Theres too many mild rampers on the tv and they think everyone loves mild crud over the festive season. Unfortunately its not looking good but coldies believe in miracles!
  11. The SS Save Christmas has hit rocks and is fast taking on water. Its been all downhill since yesterdays 12hrs runs with the pattern flatter and the phasing of shortwave energy with the upstream low making things even more difficult. The limpet high can't retrogress as shortwave energy blocks its path. Save Christmas has collapsed from 4/10 to 2/10. We need to see the rot stopped asap !
  12. Operation Save Christmas suffers a heavy blow this morning! The GFS 00hrs is at least better than the previous 18hrs run but not as amplified as the 12hrs. The ECM is flatter than yesterdays 12hrs run. The UKMO is dismal from a cold perspective, the flattest of all. Okay that's the bad news out of the way! The ECM ensembles show a spread through the UK in terms of temps and the pressure ones show the spread just to the east suggesting theres support for more amplification and low pressure digging south. The problem remains in terms of Christmas that the models agree in pushing the PV south again and you need to have a strong ridge to the ne to help disrupt some of that upstream energy. Save Christmas drops from 5/10 last night to 4/10 after the early outputs. We need to see more amplification within the T168hrs timeframe as quickly as possible!
  13. I think its best to wait a few more runs in terms of the ensembles. At the moment we've seen an increase in amplitude in the ops. Is that the end of that trend or will it continue? Its always risky drawing too many conclusions when you're moving from one pattern to another. So we saw the positive PNA, then that relaxed and now we're seeing a bit more amplitude developing.
  14. Operation Save Christmas moves to 5/10. If we can squeeze more amplitude upstream then we could see some interest develop around that time. Perhaps we might be talking about another slider drama!
  15. Oh dear whats happened to the ECM and UKMO. Both have performed poorly for several days and are now having to climbdown, very unusual to see this given its normally the GFS which has a flat bias. Looks like NOAA were right to berate recent ECM op runs. The once star of the model stage turning into Norma Desmond!
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