nick sussex

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nick sussex last won the day on January 28

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  1. I think its best to remain cautious until we see the real interest showing up in the earlier timeframe. Given the countless disappointments over the last few months I won't be bringing out the ear muffs and woolie hat just yet. If it does turn much colder it will certainly come as a big shock down here where the weathers been sunny and warm for the last few days.
  2. Was about to enter my hibernation mode and then woke up to todays outputs! They do seem to have picked up a signal to fragment the PV and develop some height rises to the nw. Earlier theres also a chance of some snow for Scotland and the especially n/ne England as we see a slowing of the troughing upstream and some disruption around the T102hrs mark, there could be sufficient cold to undercut the precip. The UKMO is less interested but it was viewed as a lower probability outcome upstream by NCEP.
  3. Luckily the stakes aren't higher and the UKMO refusal to even deliver a brief colder shot isn't that much of a big deal. The ECM then goes onto produce a tightly coiled PV to the north and big departure from its 00hrs run. I think whats quite evident this winter is just how little amplitude we've seen upstream. Whether the ECMs PV is the last gasp which you can sometimes see as a reaction to a SSW before it implodes or whether this is a sign of a flat jet and milder start to March we'll see in the next few days. The winter looks like going out on either a tragic excuse for a colder shot which would sum up the winter or milder conditions like the UKMO. Overall I think most want to put this winter to bed and move on. Of course there still might be some wintry interludes in March but thoughts of crunchy snow, ice days are now going to have to wait till next winter.
  4. Some interesting patterns showing up on the ECM 12hrs run, not sure I'm in the mood for a cold spring after an underwhelming winter, it would just be so typical for the perfect winter synoptics to pop up too late.
  5. Looks like the other models are slowly edging towards the ECM solution with splitting that shortwave energy upstream, originally they kept a train of that stopping the displacement of the Azores high to the nw. At the moment its not looking like any cold will last very long however the ECM at day ten upstream doesn't look bad, its likely the PV to the north will get pulled further to the nw as it engages that troughing over central Canada, it really depends how much dig we see upstream of the troughing over Greenland extending south as to whether we see a stronger ridge thrown ne ahead of that. Not outside the bounds of possibilities that the ridge won't develop further north around this time. The thought of another easterly isn't really filling me with much joy however and at this time of year a ne/n flow is generally better for cold unless a lobe of the PV is under the block to the east to feed deeper cold westwards.
  6. The ECM whilst better earlier in terms of potential looks underwhelming at T240hrs with that bloated PV to the north. The 00hrs had a more fragmented PV at that timeframe. I think we'd need to see a lot more retrogression of the Azores high and the ridge then toppling more towards Scandi, not enough vertical in the ridging. Putting that aside we are seeing a divergence of opinion earlier and its all in relation to the movement of high pressure out of Canada, the ECM amplifies this which then helps to split that shortwave energy over the ne USA. Once you have that gap at T144hrs the Azores high can retrogress as the T168hrs output shows: Without that split in the shortwave energy then any cold will likely be delayed till much later or not happen at all and even then we still have problems with longevity of any cold because of the PV to the nw. First things first though, to have any chance of cold in around a weeks time the other models have to back this earlier timeframe.
  7. The ECM clears that shortwave energy upstream and develops a low over the ne USA, this is key to how it develops that T168hrs output. The GFS keeps a train of shortwave energy which stops the Azores high from retrogressing nw. These differences start over the USA with how that Canadian high develops because that effects whether you clear that energy.
  8. Frosty can I ask is your new avatar picture an ode to Knockers Sidney the squirrel? I don't know why but its had me really laughing, bless you! Anyway getting back to the models we are doing our best to remain interested which is hard going, I think we have to realistic and accept that the next week or so is going to be painful viewing as the Azores high pulls up its deckchair and theres no chance of cold whilst that's sitting over France. In around 8 days theres a chance we could see that pulled further west. The MJO has been a bitter disappointment so far this winter and hasn't really forced much in terms of changes that benefit colder prospects, it could do the decent thing and do something to earn its stay in this thread. I admit I have been one of the guilty posters who has been following this closely, piles of research papers later and all this effect on the NAO etc and its beginning to get on my txts, you know a bit like one of those z list celebs whose done bxgger all but seems to appear on the front pages of the press all the time. Anyway lets hope the morning outputs can give us something other than a fleeting northerly to discuss.
  9. Oh no, not sure anyones in the mood to chase another easterly! Unfortunately we seem to be stuck at day 10 for any charts that show some interest. I'm giving it a few more days to see if any of these charts actually move forward but we seem unable to shake off the PV to the nw and that makes things complicated as we've seen for much of the winter. Unfortunately we're not seeing the MJO currently force much in the way of trop response something that was noted by NCEP in their update and even though the MJO is in record breaking territory in terms of amplitude its not counting for much at the moment. I'm giving it to Friday to see concrete signs of some changes otherwise I'm going to close this book on winter 2016/17 and put it in the promised much but delivered not very much category. Last winter was promised zip and delivered zip!
  10. The ECM improves in terms of some potential towards day 9 and 10 and the GFS moves in the other direction. I think the issue still remains the reluctance of the outputs to remove a chunk of the PV over ne Canada. Theres no chance of ridging north whilst that remains there. If more amplitude does appear upstream then the troughing to the east from day 8 to 10 is well placed. It still overall looks a bit messy and complicated, the Azores high is trapped in and can't escape nw because of that shortwave energy off the ne USA. I still wouldn't rule out some cold towards the end of February , theres certainly a good source of that to the ne and any more amplitude upstream could deliver that south into the UK.
  11. I'll be haunting this thread till early March, then I go into my semi-hibernation mode. Loving the extremes I tend to post less when they're less possible. March can be a funny month, even more so down here with some large variations in temps. I've had mid twenties in early March and also a few ice days, for the UK even with that moderating effect of the sea around its still possible to get some good snow, its more about getting the right synoptics. Of course there are certain things you can't have this late, inversions aren't going to happen and easterlies from the Continent unless they come in tow with a PV chunk injecting deep cold into the circulation won't deliver. The best sourced air generally as you head into early March is from the ne/n, the thing of course with any northerlies at this stage is you don't get stuck with showers just on windward coasts, inland convection normally kicks in. In March timing is quite important, I remember when I was still living in West Sussex we had a few northerlies and some heavy convective snow showers which managed to last long enough towards evening, then clear skies saw temps drops quickly preserving the snow. Of course if you have low dew points a decent snow cover can last in the shade during the day so as much as we'd all have preferred to see some good snow in the heart of winter, we can't turn the clock back and can just hope for something interesting late Feb/early March.
  12. I'm not sure that place exists in the UK. If you want decent summers with lots of sunshine and heat and winter snow then you'll have to move over to mainland Europe, I'd forget about the USA too many nutjobs and people obsessed with guns. I suppose if I wanted to get the best out of living in the se and could afford it, then somewhere like Coldharbour just below Leith Hill would be nice, the top of the hill just about scrapes 1,000 feet including the Tower.
  13. Good agreement between the ECM and GFS, a horror show for coldies for the next 9 days and then signs of a more favourable NH pattern developing. The ECM might get there a little sooner, both have that Canadian high developing which is important. I'm afraid theres going to be some xxx rated outputs for the next few days and its really down to those last few days of February to see whether we can see a last gasp of winter. If anything pops up sooner great but I think realistically if theres to be something developing its around the 23rd onwards.
  14. Last chance saloon time is fast approaching for whether the winter will go out with a whimper or whether we could see a last gasp cold spell towards the end of the month. After feeling very pessimistic yesterday my hopes are raised slightly today, we are beginning to see some renewed amplification upstream and with the PV and deeper cold to the ne just a chance that we could get enough amplification to pull that sw. For those that have followed the mood swings of the MJO and the divergence between the main models forecasts and the velocity potential measure there has been a slow backtrack from the latter to at least take the MJO into a higher amplitude phase 8, still quicker than the former but compared to what its original forecast was this is quite a change: The ECM ensembles do show a scattering around the 22nd Feb onwards, of course this winter has been very much one in which the ensembles have chopped and changed so of course best to not put too much stall in these but if we add the strat zonal mean wind forecast in: What we're seeing is a recent increase in zonal mean winds and imminently a decrease and reversal, this in relation to the projected strat warming, we're not seeing that reversal at the 60N level but its likely the models will have increased the influence of the Atlantic and might now start to be seeing that slowing. The issue in these situations and which is often the case is when you have the models wanting to move the PV towards Siberia, do they leave any smaller PV lobes behind, this complicates any forecast because not only is it a case of if but where that leftover PV might set up, for this reason I'd be dubious of the outputs showing the PV completely removed from the ne Canada until this is shown within T168hrs. So I still think we need to temper any expectations as theres been a long list of disappointments this season, however I think theres a better chance today going forward than there was yesterday. No guarantees of course but we're just about still in the game for something colder popping up towards the latter part of the month.
  15. Well its painful viewing at the moment and we're back to chasing another opportunity. This winter has been a case of much promise and not much delivery in terms of cold and snow and with only a few weeks left we don't have a lot of time to play with. As Nick F just posted we might see a bit more amplification feeding downstream. With the PV and deeper cold to the ne if we could manage some decent amplitude theres a chance to get some cold south. But I think at this point its best to lower expectations and see whether the models might start throwing up some more amplified solutions over the next few days.