nick sussex

Well I think coldies are looking for some snow and a few days to enjoy it . There’s unfortunately no sign of that. Anyway let’s at least hope any reforming of the PV to the north is short lived and then we can see where we go from there .

It’s a shame there’s no decent ridging to the nw just at the time there’s some very cold air to the north . The GFS briefly brings something colder se but it’s a cold outlier and isn’t supported by the UKMO in terms of evolution beforehand . The story at the moment seems more about severe gales than anything wintry . A pretty horrid outlook overall and for coldies I think a lot of patience is going to be needed. Let’s see what the ECM has to say , it surely can’t get any worse than that GFS output .

The ECM isn’t quite as bad as the GFS at day ten . But apart from that it looks pretty ugly for cold lovers. No point in trying to spin tonight’s outputs as anything other than total crud .

The ECM and GFS are similar for Election Day in terms of overall pattern. The latter though has a deeper low over the North Sea .

True. Not looking great if the GFS is anything to go by . We’re still some way out though so let’s hope for some changes .

The tightly coiled PV stuck to the north isn’t what we want to see and that’s putting it mildly as there’s a swear filter in here !

So from a more wintry Election Day to now some very strong winds according to the GFS. It does have a habit of overdoing low pressure so we’d need to see whether the ECM agrees . Towards day ten the GEFS ensembles paint a grim picture . Apart from one lonely member which survived the PV onslaught .

The theme of the late autumn and winter so far . Upstream amplification has a problem surviving in the outputs . I’d view any further attempts with a pinch of salt until you get cross model agreement at day 6 .

What’s complicating matters is the trough set up . So the elongation out into the Atlantic, the coldest air can’t head south until that clears further se . The models want to develop a shortwave which runs se then east which helps to pull that away to the se . Earlier the ECM at day 7 does try to develop a more slider low , that could bring some interest if this is more shallow .

Could be some drama on Election Day given the ECM and GFS outputs . However the UKMO is much flatter at day 6 and doesn’t have that wedge of heights to the north which is needed to evolve in a more wintry way past that point . So lots to keep an eye on over the next few days .

That’s the thing Feb sometimes in here we get a bit hung up on strong blocking but a wedge of positive heights can still deliver . Theres been some notable UK snowfalls with a more southerly tracking jet and those wedges helping to keep the UK on the cold side of the jet . Now before there’s a stampede to the nearest sledge shop I’m not saying it’s going to happen here ! We’d need things to come together favourably and that’s often very elusive in UK winters !

Yes and if you look at the ECM spreads the largest is towards the west and sw on days 9 and 10 . The actual troughing upstream is still showing quite a variation . The se tracking jet looks likely as the ECM spreads don’t suggest the PV will be blowing up to the north . More likely it’s further to the nw.

Tonight’s models offer up the prospect of a soggy mess or something more wintry . There’s an opportunity at day 7 on the ECM if the upstream troughing is not as deep and more amplified to get a weaker low moving se at day 8. The GFS has the jet quite far south so in that scenario better possibilities could open up . I think we’ve reached a scenario where things could tip either way with just some relatively smallish changes on a global scale .

Hard to have much faith in the outputs at the moment . Any upstream amplification at the longer range over the last few weeks has been toned down nearer the time . Now we’re onto the next drama . The models temporarily looked really ugly for cold with the cold snap imploding and then an ominous looking ramping up of the PV to the north . Today we see the models trying to split the PV again with the jet pushed further south again . So we’ll have to see how this develops . The ECM does have a cluster of colder solutions by days 9 and 10. Interestingly just in time for the general election !

You just know it’s going to happen . The public having to trudge their way to the polls in driving snow ! I actually think the only group where turnout might be higher than normal is with most netweather members . Who will be combining their duty as citizens to vote with playing in the snow ! Anyway back to the models ! They can be a bit premature to cleanly split the PV at the longer range , and you need that to happen to allow pressure rises to the nw. So best be cautious about this until it comes within closer range time wise .