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nick sussex

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nick sussex last won the day on March 12

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  1. It’s a shame the cold didn’t move in earlier . Looking at some of the temps today many parts could have recorded their latest ever ice day .
  2. Are you still going on about that greyhound ! Didn’t you have another one running last week?
  3. At least there won’t be melt this time . Looking at dew points over north north east France behind the front the dew points are still below zero.
  4. Oh I see , you have a great memory , 2009!
  5. This apparent streamer is puzzling me. There seems to be a cloud sheet associated with the frontal band so not sure how convection kicks in. You can clearly see on the satellite pic the proper convection taking place much further to the ne. Perhaps the UKMO are expecting the cloud to break up but I’m not currently convinced about this streamer .
  6. Quite bizarre to see both a convergence zone and front so close together over the se corner on the T24 hours UKMO fax chart. Normally the front cloud sheet inhibits convection. Could be some big snow totals and some parts might do better than the previous easterly.
  7. Aren’t you describing what normally happens in the UK ! Of course everyone knows I’m an ardent coldie but not so interested when it becomes chasing slush around ! If there’s to be another cold snap I’d rather that got upgraded and then that’s it , I’m ready for some warmer weather now.
  8. If only it was that simple . Certainly for northern areas with some elevation the latest ECM could deliver , I think we’d need to see some stronger blocking to the nw to drive the colder air right into the UK. This looks great though for the Scottish ski resorts. Oh another easterly at day ten on the ECM , what took you so long ! Unless another PV chunk drops south then preferably it’s better to have a northerly or ne flow as the continent does start to heat up now although it looks like a struggle given the spring no show .
  9. Really ! I think some colder air gets pulled west again between T48 hrs and T60hrs. Those slightly higher uppers towards the south and se in relation to the low in the Channel are replaced by something colder. Although the instability falls it looks just enough to continue to produce some convection , late Sunday into early hours Monday. We’ll see... PS the ECM day 8 ! It’s a shame all this is happening so late.
  10. Could the mighty ECM be humbled by the Hirlam ? I think it’s just down to nowcasting given the model disagreements at short range . PS typical the UKMO fax charts for T60 and T72 hrs haven’t appeared yet , of all the times !
  11. Latest T36 hrs fax chart has something for coldies further north . It shows a convergence zone from the Wash right across to North Wales , the T48hrs has that small low close to Cornwall judging by the earlier one this forms near Normandy and tracks wnw. I should stress the situation is volatile so don’t bank on these features till closer to the time .
  12. Putting aside the uncertainty at short range the cold now extends into Monday. The UKMO raw output has the whole of the UK in sub -8 850s with a few sub -10s towards the sw. Even by Tuesday it’s still looking pretty cold. Given this some convection might continue towards the east and se especially late Sunday into Monday morning. There is less instability so showers likely to be more scattered but this is an upgrade compared to a few days ago when the high was already sinking .
  13. Essentially what’s happened is an extension to the cold . You can see by the fax chart for Midday Monday and compare that with last nights T96 hrs. The UKMO raw output still has sub -10 values over most of the region at midnight Sunday and there’s still sub 528 dam covering the region 12 hours later . The push north in the pattern has taken lower heights further west and nw which stops a quicker sinking of the high. So its swings and roundabouts really. Probably just a case of nowcasting as there’s a lot going on in the space of 48 hrs.
  14. It’s likely the convergence zone has gone because the cloud sheet associated with the front in the Channel would stop convection. There maybe some briefly especially towards the ne of London. After the front clears there’s another window of opportunity as 850 values are still quite low however there is less instability at that stage so probably not as widespread. The models still disagree on how much snow will develop off that front in the Channel . So you might lose some convection but still get a decent covering. Given the timeframes the models do seem to be making a lot of drama over what’s normally deemed the reliable timeframe .
  15. Entrenched cold is not necessary for frontal snow, what’s needed is an undercut of drier air with low dew points. It’s for that reason some of the rain associated with the fronts moving west in the fax chart will turn to snow . There is no entrenched cold over the UK as this happens. Anyway the ECM looks like an outlier solution at T72 hrs and best for the timebeing to wait and see what future runs say.