Stormyking

Problem at the moment everything still a bit messy and unorganised, give it a couple more hours and I think things start getting its act together, best times will be from 7pm onwards Patience!

Cell going up to my East North East, im really hoping it continues to grow! All of these cumulus are growing!

Ive been watching that cell build up from the start, theres loads of big Cumulus to east of itt too which im keeping my eye on

That shower that just gone up in the solent has surely got to go! It has a white core on the radar, west wight is about to get drenched but i cant chase god damn it due to sports commitments Edit there she goes... https://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php

Quick question guys, I normaly know my storms and stuff quite well, but am needing some information for Tomorrow's potential, personally I think it looks really good, but got a funny feeling theres gonna be alot of cloud around too, me and my friend are planning a chase on the mainland towards areas like Somerset/Devon way, its a bit trickier as we gotta think of boat fair too. If one of the other pros has a bit more information that would be very much appreciated (I know nothing is definite) just to know whether its worth it or not!

These are the scenes on the island coasts right now, incredible thick fog

Estofex is keen on tonight http://estofex.org/ Storm Forecast Valid: Sat 07 May 2016 06:00 to Sun 08 May 2016 06:00 UTC Issued: Sat 07 May 2016 05:35 Forecaster: TASZAREK No threat levels are issued. SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION Thunderstorm activity on Saturday is divided into two main features. A first one concerns W Europe where a well defined warm sector with southerly advection of rich low-level moisture presses up to British Isles. Within this moisture and rather moderate lapse rates, a CAPE up to 800-1000 J/kg will develop in the line from SW France up to CNTRL Great Britain. A passage of the poorly marked shortwave trough in the afternoon hours will initiate northerly moving scattered thunderstorms. Due to weakly sheared environment (DLS < 10 m/s), no severe weather phenomena are expected in this area.

If you read what I put, i havent said an exactly location, its all over the place, honestly mate there is a risk yes but its only a risk, i dont want you to get your hopes to high as it could end in tears, im not for one minute discarding anywhere, its so tricky to say where.

Hmm I have been observing this situation all week and to be honest with the weekend now closing in, it still virtually impossible to say for sure where showers or storms are gonna be or how intense or weak they will be. From what I have seen, the highest potential (Surface based showers/storms) does appear to be from Bristol Northwards, such as West Midlands, Wales and the North West, especially Saturday and Sunday as there does also seem to be better instability around those areas. As for the South/ South West or even the South East its a bit of a different situation, this is this the trickiest part, whilst I am confident that Elevated showers/storms will pop up, I am not confident on where. Tomorrow Night and into Saturday Evening, An area of showers has been consistently showing, but 1 run its further west, and then the next its further east, latest 12z pushes an area of showers towards the Dorset coast and parts of East Devon, and also a very pockety but intense area of showers just to the west of the IOW, then quickly dies through Saturday. Saturday Evening and overnight has been interesting me that bit more as its been consistently showing as well an intense but fairly small area of precipitation pushing up towards the South Coast, the latest run pushes it further East, Which shows to be affecting areas such As The Isle of Wight eastwards and moves towards Brighton/Eastbourne before quickly dying off. This will chop and change throughout the next 48 hours so even with this still my confidence is around 50-60% Th problem with Elevated storms they are so so tricky to predict and point and they can just about pop up out of no where, ive seen so many times where even the highest resolution charts dont pick up anything what so ever and still has delivered. I think it would be foolish to discard places like the South East in these sort of set ups as things can still very easily change, even this close in.. Alot of this weekend too does also depend on wind shear too which i think will quite important. Anything beyond Saturday i wouldnt like to judge as its still too far out.

Majorite of the island is around 17- 19'c though a few spots including central Newport is reading 21.0'c, Brightstone area is at 20.4'c where i am though its 16.2'c thanks to a sea breeze in my area, just taking the edge off a touch but still very pleasant, lovely birthday weather for me indeed

Latest run looks pretty good to me if you ask me mate, Saturday night and evening sunday night shows a heavy cluster of Showers/storms moving up from the South South East, i think anywhere along the South and South West coast could be in a chance for some Elevated stuff, but again will have to wait and see as its still all up and down. The stuff across the North and West does look very interesting though

One from last night, last night was better than the other night, was amazingly clear! Not the best place to put it but i wanted to share!

Was meant to share this the other night, the night time skies was some of the clearest ive ever seen, could even see the milkyway really clearly too it was great! Anyways as for this weekend, bring on the Warmth! Looking potentially thundery too which is worth keeping an eye on for sure!

My friend has kindly aloud me to share this to you from one of our storms this evening, he took this looking from Ventnor Downs looking over sandown bay and towards Culver

Did you see this storm over your way in Ryde this Afternoon?

Whaqt an evening, had a beast of a little storm roll through about 7:30 this evening, the CGS were pure evil looking, like really strong , then had another storm pass to our east an hour latr which let out some good cgs!. The top of the main storm we had this evening and the base too like 15 minutes later

Wooo just had thunderstorm come threw, with snow on the backedge

This is coming right at us! could be interesting

Whaattt we just had heavy snow pass threw here where i am, then went back to haily, sleety snow! Theres been reports of snow across the island all Afternoon! Remarkeble for end of April!

Agreed here 09, id have a bit more confidence if this brief plumey look over the next couple of days was say in another months or 2 time, but the type that is now I have no interest in, it doesn't look that convective at all. Even though certain types can produce at this time of year, this one however due to the low-level quickly turning to a Northerly as you say. Im certainly more interested in these cold Northerlies/North Westerlies showing later in the week and into next, im also very confident of soft hail too in these sort of set ups coming up, though as for thunder it will be a low risk at that.

Your best bet will probably be Tomorrow morning, the first wave of rain tomorrow does look heavy and convective so there is a risk there for something thundery towards your area, though a fairly low risk, don't be surprised, just keep your eyes peeled

I didnt watch the bbc, but theres a few indications on the high res charts and closer view of the GFS of some really heavy convective showers/rain which looks thundery to me moving in behind the first lot of rain tomorrow morning, and these intense convective pockets after look elevated, and could affect anywhere from the South to South East Coast, of coarse things could change but it still of interest.

The area of rain moving up from the South isnt that convective, quite heavy yeah but thats about it im afraid, for the Southern and South Eastern coastal areas theres a feature tomorrow Afternoon that has caught my Interest, looks like an area of heavy elevated Showers could push in behind the first area of rain that passes through Friday Morning, which as well does look quite intense and may even have the odd rumble of thunder in and that looks a little more favourable for parts of the South West. But my main focus as i have just mentioned is Tomorrow Afternoon, think there could be a couple of surprises, but we shall see.

I expect further cells to go up towards late Afternoon in the hampshire region, which if they do i think they will hold well but become more isolated and organised during the Evening due to Nocturnal cloud top cooling, hope so anyway as 41 pound for the boat has been paid already

Boat is booked within the next hour, getting into position, got our perfect set up, radar, go pro, live stream which ill try and find a way to share on here, cameras and of coarse money Mcdonalds!