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Posts posted by Stormyking
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Sure has been an incredibly interesting past few days of Model watching, i'm not too worried about the ECM at the minute but still worth keeping an eye on just in case it doesn't become a little bit of a trend, even though its still very very cold on there too. Aside from that another amazing GFS run, GEM and UKMO Doesn't look too shabby at 144.
I'm also keeping a little eye on Thursday/Friday, I wouldn't be surprised of a risk of some light flurries
Got everything crossed
ECM 12z incoming
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Been a while since ive been on here :O but thought it would be time to return. Sure is looking cold over the next week, wouldnt be surprised if there was a few little streamers about Tomorrow Afternoon. Positive thinking!
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Just had some really really Torrential Rain, which was pretty mad! Haven't seen Rain that Heavy in ages. Even more so than Tuesday Night.
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Its been a while since I have been on here and on social media in general, but I thought it would be rude not to share a couple of Snaps of Tuesday night crazyiness, which was easily some of the best Storms I have ever experienced, Just the sheer amount of Lightning about was pretty special, and it came with the whole bunch, Anvil Crawlers, Spider Lightning, CG'S some beautiful Cloud to Cloud Lightning.
These 2 I got from from St Catherine's overlooking the Lighthouse
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Snow is proper coming down and its setting!, even on the ground! woooooo
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Its officially turned to Snow here on the South East Coast of the Island!
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Its turning to snow here! Woooooo, didnt expect it to start turning this early!
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I should of really thought about this, if it snows and settles here, all of my shoes have holes in and i have to wait till the end of January to get a new pair of shoes! So im screwed basically.
However I wouldnt really care, as i just want to see some snow! Its been too long, so fingers crossed tonight delivers!
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Raining steadily here, though can actually start to feel the temperature drop a touch, fingers crossed for this Evening, i too would love to just see some snow falling im that desperate!
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Can't get to the temperature yet but it is a lovely warm morning here though fairl breezy with a fair amount of high cloud, feels like August again
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Ahh nice to be back posting again ready for the winter fun.
Today was a beautiful day and also quite warm too, there was a bit of a sea breezre but that was quite nice too. Temperature around this area hit exactly 22.0'c Current now is 14.5 and we had a low last night of 11.3'c
I dont know if any of you went to the Isle of Wight Bestival a couple of weeks ago but I thought id share this firework photo I had captured just for the fun
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One of todays storms produced a funnel which actually touched the ground for a while and became an official tornado! This was looking NNW from Brading down, my friend has aloud to me to kindly share these with you
This was looking tto the North Coast, don't if anyone can see close on the water underneath it, you can see the disturbance,
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Well what I can say about today, been a fantastic day :O must of had at least 5/6 different storms roll threw, 3 of them had lightning extremely close! What a great week its been!
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Ahh well close but no cigar, this rain is lush though, not cold, persitent and beautiful to stand out in
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Hearing thunder again, getting closer! This would be a nice surpirse
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Ahhh well that was fun Evening/night, 1 annoying thing about the 2nd wave of storms, there was a lot of fog obscuring the Lightning, but I really aint complaining. Been some lovely CG'S and also some very very close calls, with explosive sounding thunder. Glad I stayed on the Island
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I'm so glad I stayed on the island! Very decent storm here, thunder and lightning has been right overhead!
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3 minutes ago, paul_montague said:
Going to head down to my usual viewpoint near Sandown and look out to sea later. The Wightlink pirates really love to fleece us
You know that, prices are just too much its ridiculous! Red funnel is no better either!
Knowing us if we stay it will be our trust spot up on Culver downs, get a very good view of Bognor up there!
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9 minutes ago, Harry said:
The difficulty will be, I suspect, that initial storms are more or less modelled to erupt around or just off the coast of Kent/E Sussex. Thereafter it looks as if storms will develop further west of that general zone, meaning that there is a risk you could stay put waiting for that eventuality (and they stay further east) or you could move east, never quite catch them and then they develop over your patch.
Personally I am staying put and hoping for the best, but then I am on the edge (wrong side) of Dan's 'moderate' and the MetO's amber so am hopeful of catching at least some peripheral storms, but not expecting to enjoy the main feast.
If the storms do develop west of that general zone then the area im in isn't too bad, I also live on the East Coast of the Isle of Wight, which is in the risk zone quite nicely, but again its the fact of being on an island is the annoying, i got a feeling we are probably gonna stay put unless the 12z does shift it a bit further East
11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:What were your initial plans? I would still hop over to the mainland, and head to Bognor Regis, and then keep track on the radar.
We have had 2 things in mind for our initial plans, orginaly we were gonna drive down towards Brighton/Hastings area, but the last few runs we have been thinking of just staying here. Driving to Bognor Regis wouldn't be a bad shout as it isn't far from the Island, its obviously ferry prices we also need to take into account just incase the island does get soem storms
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7 minutes ago, Harry said:
I'd agree with that, seems to be the general trend being spat out of the models - relatively marginal so I wouldn't expect any change to the current warning areas issued, but if you are in a 'slight' or 'low' area then perhaps the odds have slightly improved.
One thing is for sure I might be a bit scared of falling asleep tonight in case I miss anything. Strikes me (pun, sorry) that any storms could develop extremely rapidly, with some cells being imported while others will erupt overhead in a very short space of time.
The fact its been tracking a bit further west in the last few runs, is making me wander if there is any point in going anywhere and just staying where I am. final decision is all down to the 12z I guess.
And I know for a fact I wont be sleeping tonight haha
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27 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:Nice area of Elevated storms in the bay of biscay for sure, once they hit land there gonna turn into some proper surface based beasts for time, damn wish I was there!
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1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:
Let me know if you are going our way would like to meet up know a good place with views on the South Downs
Sure thing mate, we are making our final decisions based on the 12z updates, not over sure where we would go for definite
16 minutes ago, paul_montague said:Sick of the reply cock ups on my phone!!! The BBC have just said anywhere from the Isle of Wight eastwards at risk. Personally i would head Brighton way as you better placed if storms pop up either side.
This is the problem I have haha as we gotta take into consideration of the ferry cost, however we are thinking of the Brighton area. Saying that though some of the latest High rez updates have made things more awkward, quite a few of them have now put the stuff smack bang over the island! This is givng me a headache!
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The different scenarios that keep showing shows we definitely need more runs to be get a more accurate reading, but overall it still looks very very good and cold!
Staying positive!