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Stormyking

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    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Well then all I can say is what a couple of days it has been!

    Will start off with Thursday. So the day had started off on dry and relatively bright note, cloud moved in around midday which it stayed like that for quite a few hours. The first wave of precipitation arrived late Afternoon around 4pmish, it started as rain and sleet across the whole Island which was like that for a good 45 minutes to an hour.

    Reports started coming in of the rain and sleet and started turning to snow across Central and Western parts of the island! By around 6pm, the reports coming in were that many places was snowing, but at this point, only the far East coast of the Island was under sleet (Which happens to be my area). Set off for a bowls game in Ryde, when we got there, the rain was rapidly turning to snow, with big flakes getting thrown in by now. The game started, the sound of our bowls club tin roof went silent and at this point I had a huge adrenaline rush, knowing that there was heavy precipitation falling and our roof being silent, it had turned to heavy snow! I snuck off the green for a cheeky look as I couldn't help myself, and it really was heavy snow coming down! 

    The opposing team conceded the game early with our team so far ahead, they wanted to get back early in case the snow got too bad. I quickly ran off the green, shouted in excitement ( DO YOU WANNA BUILD A SNOWMANNN)  << the look I got given .  Anyway left the club, and there was a good inch fallen outside at this stage with yet more heavy snow falling. It was a treacherous ride home. Got to Sandown and amazingly there was hardly any snow on the ground, it had only just turned to snow in this area at the time I got back. Half hour later my good old storm and snow chasing buddy came and picked me up in his 4 by 4 and we headed out to central and western parts where it was really really awesome! Was really a magical night, we went to Newport town square, heavy snow with very light winds was just amazing. We then went into the middle of Parkhurst forest at mid night, got the body the board, using this ledge and snow made ramps! There was a good 6-7cms in this area. We then went to our final destination out towards Freshwater which had even more with snow accumulating to about 10cms. 

    What I found amazing was, there was no precipitation showing over the island on the radar at this point, but we just had continuous moderate-heavy snow falling non stop for hours! Then all the stars came out on the way back home and it was still snowing moderate to heavy! Sandown and Shanklin finally had a coating when I got back, but these were the only 2 places where it didn't do quite so well.

    Just this one photo from Newport, but have got a couple of video clips which I will upload 

    Last one, we had another period of Moderate to Heavy snow falling yesterday Afternoon for a good hour and a half which gave another new coating  

    Newport Snow.jpg

    • Like 9

    Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    So the charts are on a bit of a downer this morning, though I don't think its anything worth worrying about at this stage, if it can turn like that just over night, then it can still easily change back the next 24 hours. 

    I'm concentrating between now and Tuesday in the meantime, with cold and potential snow in the shorter time frame. Its a good start compared to anything we have seen really this winter so far  

    I am keeping the faith for now still 

    • Like 4
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    The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    So again I haven't posted in a few weeks again due to Anxiety issues and other problems, am trying to get back into the swing of things. I am well behind on a lot on here, but do follow as much as I can.

    Certainly a lot of interest going on in the models of late, the quick changes in the shorter term proves why things should never get written off and yet its still all changing on each run. Though our first cold shot does look like its on the cards with the models agreeing on this first short Northerly, with the high pressure ridge going up and then into Scandi, giving us a cold North Easterly-Easterly, which sinks way South. A fair few models going for more attempts of more cold potential, but at that point there will be still a lot of changes.

    I love these roller coaster rides during these winter model watching months.

    • Like 22

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I definitely am not worrying about anything as yet, not until what ever is showing within the 5 day timeframe

    GFS P looking pretty decent again currently, be interesting to see what the ECM brings after showing some good consistence the last few runs.

    GFS normal showing something different like it normally does on most runs.

    UKMO didn't look too bad either to me on its latest 12z.

    Icon looked much better as well, compared to yesterday and this Morning

    I do enjoy these wars between the models, makes everything feel more intense and interesting as a weather perspective in general

    • Like 5

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I for one definitely don't think the UKMO is all doom and gloom, it is still trying and isn't a million million miles off. 

    Icon isn't great again, but I have seen worse before, i'm not too knowledgeable on the Icon so I don't want to discard it just from previous experience with other scenarios with other models.

    GFS another really really good run with potential snow showing in the South whilst the GEM tries but doesn't quite make it.

    As others have said all the uncertainty and just from previous experience I think it will take another few days to see what really happens. 

    If I remember back in March this year, March 2013, December 2010 on quite a few occasions where the models would look really really good, then they back off and then a couple of days later they all jump on board again, these are just a handful of scenarios. Doesn't mean it will happen this time round but its just a reason why I never give up because of a couple of non favourable runs. 

    The season has just begun, and seeing these sort of charts already is great to see whatever happens

    Currently GFS P and next ECM, wander whats it will bring  

    • Like 6

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Good Morning Net Weather, a beautiful crisp clear sunny Morning to start Today along with light winds too! Was quite a cold Morning with a ground frost in some parts of the Island but not all parts.

    Temperatures...

    Overnight Low: 1.8'c

    Current 8.2'c

    Other Island Temperature lows

    Shanklin: 2.8'c

    Godshill: 0.9'c

    Newport: -0.8'c (Slight Air frost) Would make sense, centre of the island in between lots of high ground

    Cowes:  2.1'c

     

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    So is 6Z in the short term Blue, looks sharper and amplified by 120- showers turning to snow in Northern Scotland i would suggest as air originated from way north moves in..

    PS excellent news about weather bell.joins Glosea i suspect..

    Was going to say as well it looks a bit more amplified already on this 6z run, quite liking the run so far

    Can tell quite clear at 132  

    • Like 1

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    This is why I love winter Model watching, the chopping and changing, everything is still a mystery. GFS is a poor run to say the least, but at this stage i'm certainly for one not gonna worry about things until we get to within the 5 day time frame. Yesterday ECM wasn't having any of it, but today its like actually yeah I want some of that, now UKMO looks like it wants some of it on the latest. Now GFS has decided it doesn't want any of it,. Again it goes to show nothing is no where set in stone.

    We have the GFS and ICON latest with more energy going over the the high with the cold not quite making it

    UKMO and GEM looking really good, which I agree with a lot of others about the UKMO, have always thought they have been solid. So with this reason gives me a little confidence, not to say it won't change on the next run.

    We now await the ECM and the Paralelle to update.

    In the closer time frame i'm quite looking forward to the some of the stormy weather the charts are showing for the weekend, looks nasty for the North, though reckon there could well be some wintry showers as its moved through too, maybe some thundery showers further South along the coasts.

     

    gfs-0-102.png

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    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    So after a long long long spell away from Weather up and until this year, I thought id make a return, but right back in the deep end of things, quite rusty still but want to re learn it all properly. Latest GFS again is absolutely insane, barring one small little blip showing  towards the end of this week away from the South East, it still looks exceptionally dry and even if temperatures showing mid 20's in just that small blip will still most likely be nearer high 20's nearer the South East as has been mentioned. The week after is definitely worth keeping an eye big time, with so many runs showing mid 30's even high 30's, with how dry the continent is as well, I wouldnt be surprised if a couple 40's to be recorded in parts of the country if of coarse it still showing the trend nearer the time.

     

    This 6z run though is a beast once again, far out still but with these trends keep on showing, we could definitely be on to something.

     

     

     

     

    Scordio Summer Europe 1.png

    Scorchio Summer 1.png

    Scordio summer Europe 2.png

    Scordio Summer 2.png

    • Like 9
    • Thanks 1

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Man that wasa  fun storm, Lightning was very frequent including one close Posi strike which sounded like a 100 cannons go off at once! Rain was torrential and the Lightning continued. 2nd storm passed just to my North which had some mad cloud to cloud Lightning and a beaut of a multistrike! They both passed through pretty quick but im confident we could definitely see a 2nd wave in the next few hours :) 

    • Like 1
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