[What's your favourite and least favourite season?]

I dont really hate any season to be honest, I would probably say Summer is my favourite due to the Thunderstorms, i just love them! And id go spring as my least favourite due to the not so much interest.

 

Being coastal, Autumn can have a good advantage on surfaced based thunderstorms off the sea, due to it being warmer whilst the land is cooling off for the winter. 

 

Winter isnt far behind summer because im also a big snow and extreme cold fan too!

 

so in order id go

 

1. Summer: Because one I love Thunderstorms as its my favourite, and two I love lots of heat and beach.

2. Winter: Im a big snow fan, and also love extreme cold and frosts.

3. Autumn, I love the coasal based surface based thunderstorms off the sea and also I love a good Autumn Atlantic Storm.

4. Spring: The IOW was good for slack northerlies and thunderstorms from them conditions, and have experience most of my thundersnows from them

[Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>]

Awesome stuff by the sound of it in the South east and London area well done to those had got it

Looked almost an MCS on the radar around 2pmish, mate back home had been tracking, but think only a couple of bits of thunder reached the IOW.

 

South east again tomorrow could be in for another interesting day aswell!

Bit of cape and lifted, wouldnt be suprised if some hail was around those areas

[Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.]

A change looks a certain now by the looks of it, but I still dont think it will last long though.

 

This though could make things quite warm and humid with some thundery showers in places, before a cool down arrives after this!

 

Not overally cool from this, would still bring temps of around 22/23'c in places

 

 

ECM almost on the same wavelength too 

 

[Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.]

This isn't too bad a position to be in to be honest, all the cool air is going to be sucked towards the Azores. Watch heights rebuild over Europe during the latter frames, maybe the south eastern half of the UK might get in on this too.

 

....Or the ECM could flatten everything out. In the end the ECM doesn't end up too bad.

This is what I am reckoning will happen aswell, which in theory should give us another boost of warmth and thundery weather again . 

 

ECM showing high pressure trying to build behind this aswell 

[Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>]

Nice looking storm in Devon earlier by the looks of it, well done who ever was under it

We had a heavy shower around 11am this morning, but that was it and it was very Elevated too.

Looks a decent chance back home on the IOW tomorrow Afternoon! Wish I was there!

[Autumn 2014 - Forecasts, thoughts & predictions...]

My Thoughts on Autumn are:

 

September: I think it will be a mixed month, I reckon a calm and dry start, and then middle will turn a little more unsettled with the Atlantic starting to kick in.

Last part of september, I reckon we will get some late warmth, and some thundery showers around coastal areas .

 

October: I think it will be quite and unsettled month with the Atlantic pushing in lows through most part. Last week of October I reckon High pressure will push in giving some calm, melow conditions with some early frost in places.

 

November: I think this will carry on into the first half of November, dry, settled, lots of mist/fog in the mornings and some frost too. Im also going for an early cold spell towards the end of November with some wintry showers in places.

 

Thats my thoughts on Autumn

[Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.]

Judging by this morning, GFS showing more a cooler and unsettled theme, and the ECM is showing a more unsettled theme but with some warmth and thundery shower potential. I personally think we still have one or two more warmer spells as August goes on, but only time will tell.

[Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>]

Interesting couple of days coming up for places  East Devon, Dorset area and the Hampshire area too. Today looks more the Dorset area will have the better chance of seeing storms. Bit gutted because my mate is going on a little storm chase from the IOW, and these the times when id go with him but am stuck in Guernsey. 

Got some light showers here at the moment but nothing else really.

[Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.]

Still signs of things changing as we go into the start of August with some a more unsettled picture showing again, but not to unsettled

 

Rest of the week still looking nice and warm with some thundery showers thrown in over the next couple of days for Southern Counties of England by the looks of it.

[Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.]

That looks to me like warm, humid and showery with thundery downpours and thunderstorms about rather than Atlantic fronts and autumnal greyness. Perhaps a similar first weekend to August 2012 if that came off. Nevertheless, a long way in the future and similar charts have been shown for that far ahead for quite a while and keep getting pushed back so time will tell.

 

In the reliable it looks warm and sunny for the rest of this week with humidity rising and the chance of showers and storms at times as the week progresses. Great weather for high summer!

What I meant to say was that, i still think it will quite warm, i think we will see more in the way low to mid 20's rather than mid to high 20's type stuff. 

 

I do agree with the fact it could be a decent set up for heavy/thundery showers, but anyways exactly its still a way out so things could still change.

For the rest of this week, the 12z is remaining very warm for this week as its rolling out still

[Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.]

Past couple of runs now I have noticed a sign of change aswell going into the start of August, becoming a little bit unsettled and not quite so warm.

 

 

 

FI I know, but im confident with this

[Summer 2014 thread]

Really has turned into a fantastic summer, even here in Guernsey, almost constant days of wall to wall sunshine, along with a  good mix of awsome thunderstorms, 2 stand out ones was the Saturday just gone and one back at the end of May. My home Isle of Wight seems too also be having an awsome summer with heat and thunderstorms too!

 

Got a sneaky feeling though August may turn a bit unsettled but not too unsettled, thats my thought for the rest of the Summer

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

Well what can I say, had storms 3am this morning which were okay, then another around 4am which died by the time it got to us, had another small storm around 9:30am whilst I was at work.

 

Now the best thing of all was i got sent home about 10:30 because it was dead and there was too many staff, and oh my god it couldnt of worked out any better! 

 

Walking back from home, hearing dist thunder from 2 storms, but the one to my South and SSW was really beginning to crank up, i went back out to get a good view.

Thunder was getting closer and a bit more frequent, then out of no where looked to my right and a big triple CG!, and that moment I was like S**t im not safe here and ran down lower, and found another decent view. All of sudden CGS were popping out everywhere and there was so much thunder, there must of been alot of CC too! So i ran back to the house, because there was just no safe place outside anymore haha. Anyways got in, opened the window, which i have an awsome view aswell, and just sat back and watched the show! Thunder and lightning was literally every 1/2 seconds for a good hour and its still rumbling away!

 

The rain too was so so heavy, which added to the excitement even more

 

This has made my day! Maybe Guernsey is good for storms after all

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

Oh my god what an unbelievable storm we have right now, this by far the best day time storm i have ever witnessed, we have constant thunder and lightning every 1 too 2 seconds, the rain is so so torential and th ehouse is shaking, this is amazing

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

Just had a 2nd storm try to reach but died jus before it reached, manage to see 3/4 awsome CGS and some nice CC lightning and high IC aswell

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

Just had a decent storm roll through here in Guernsey, had 1 huge cradk of thunder aswell which was a house shaker!

Its still flashing away but to my North now .

Also had a small storm around 6pm yesteray evening too but nothing much.

Really wish i was back on the IOW for there storms last night , anyways i still witnessed a fantastic lightning display

Still not a bad couple of days

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

Sorry if this is immature but you

Can tell this is the pub run haha!

Anyways on a serious note, things looking really quite good for the channel islands tomorrow, but my fingers are crosses!

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

Fantastic day today! just had our 3rd lot of thunder and lightning and a biggggg funel cloud! judging by the things i think this evening is looking very good for the IOW

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

Wow there are towers goingt up left right and centre, last 2 days on the IOW, so hopefully today will be a good one!

[Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards]

Woww I knew this would happen as soon as I left the IOW, looks like another load of storms is heading straight for them, everything has completely missed Guernsey so far

[Convective / Storm Discussion - 14th May 2014 onwards]

Well life in Guernsey for this first storm potential, is a bit frustrating at the moment, we got circled by storms but no hit, ah well maybe overnight things may develop again

[Convective / Storm Discussion - 1st May 2014 onwards]

Wow that was a house shaker, positive CG right over sandown extremely loud thunder! Very nice surprise, absolutely mental the past year for storms!

[Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards]

Well done SK , any footage?   I can talk as I took some video of my downpour in Newbury but I'm not exactly clued up about uploading video.

I got some pictures on my phone so I'll try and upload them a bit later, it was quite something tbh

[Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards]

Fantastic couple of hours here between 11am and 2pm, noticed the showers fired up around 10:30 to our East and ENE, so me, my girlfriend and my mate went on a little stormchase (was my girlfriends first stormchase). Started to head West of Newport, and we encounted Torrential Rain and then we had an incredible Hailstorm, the hailstones were enormous! Between the size of a marble and Golfball.

We went up on to this hill where there was an opening, the base of the shower was getting stronger, and the hail caught up again, and then BOOM, we saw our first Lightning Strike which was a very bright Positive CG, and then the classic gunshot thunder finishing with a deep boom . Something else then caught our Attention on the Southern part of the cell, there was very strong rotation and up draught going on, and looked like a funnel had tried to form. Had a another rumble of thunder whilst watching the rotation.

Anyways we then headed west again towards West Wight, to catch up to the storm again because it was getting stronger, as we got to where we wanted, the thunder and lightning got a lot more frequent and we ended with a proper Thunderstorm, before it moved away. There was so much hail on the ground, it was white everywhere around us .

Been great this year and today was great

[Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards]

Wow wow it looks unreal to our East, so close to producing lightning easy!