-
Posts
1,624 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Stormyking
-
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Telling you now peeps, some of you keep an eye out for Tomorrow Afternoon and Evening i think there will be a little surprise, hence my earlier post! I been keeping an eye out on everything! -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I think Tomorrow should be kept a close eye on for some places, parts of the South and East will still be in relatively warm air... Before a front pushes in from the West, which could set off some heavy thundery downpours in parts of Central, Southern and Eastern England. I reckon if any of this happens, any showers/storms will start off quite Elevated and then turning more surface based as the winds turn West to North Westerly. There is also some surface based cape around Im not one to stand by the GFS alot, but this Morning it had a similar idea, also some of the high res models also had similar ideas.. So guys who ever hasnt had storms, dont give up just yet -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Im in one of those areas that's an absolute bloody pain with this set up in regarding hit or miss, had thunder all morning, but that was all connected to that main area that went through Kent, though wasn't frequent, it was a success still and I am not complain, as we have had a decent year... Now tonight is even more tricky to pin point, especially this area, my thoughts, Kent and Sussex are in the best area, though the odd cell here and there maybe drift this far west, or another large area, with the storms being the east area, though further west of a band of stuff, would have the flash and bang here and there, a bit like this Morning Its more frustrating for the fact me and my mate trying to forecast this for our local area -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Still rumbling away, those of you in the South East look like your in for a treat, good luck guys -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
This is absolutely beutiful to listen too, the thunder and lightning isnt frequent and the rain s falling at a steady heavy pace with no wind at all, but the sound of everything is perfect -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Wheey 2 proper rumbles of thunder just went off!, Extremely huge drops f rain -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Can never say for sure on times, or even they will happen, they could still easily miss us, but am about 70% confident From all of what im seeing detail, I would say our best time would be Early hours Thursday probably between the hours 2am and 8am... On thursday looks a case of anything could pop up at anytime -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
There is 2 lots im keeping an eye, 1st one is for early Thursday Morning, most of the High resolution charts say yes to Early Thursday Morning, which looks a better bet South coast, and the South West. The 2nd lot looks to be Thursday Evening into Friday which looks good for the South Coast again and the South East, actually the South East on some these runs look potentially nasty for Thursday Evening. This also included further inland too. Im not going to judge Friday yet as its still 3 days away. -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The latest 6z would ring out some major flood alerts if any of this pulls, Friday looks especially nasty on this latest run for parts of Central, Southern and Western areas, aka Dorset, Bristol, East Devon up to South West Midlands. Before that, still looks pretty decent for potential nasty storms, especially anywhere across SoutherN Coasts, South East Coast and parts of the South West. Quite a few things to note such as ML cape, looks like there would be good wind sheer too, especially Thursday Morning, with surface winds Easterly to ENE, Mid Level South South East, and the very upper winds South East! quite strong too. If the surface winds become slightly more NE, and remain showing strong, my theory is storms would leave France, become Elevated, then further in the channel, those strong NE winds, would easilly bring land heat a good 30+miles out into the channel, so as the storms/showers get closer they would become more semi elevated to surface based, which in turn would bring a highest of Hail and possible possibly super cellular characteristics. Things could still easily change, but this would be my theory from all the aspects ive been keeping an eye on the last few days, im not gonna get carried away at all. -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Nice couple of storms earlier here, some good cgs to our east and then, a 2nd to our west which hit the island and gave a positive strike that hit Newport too with louder thunder -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Im gonna tell my mate too, as they are his pictures, just he allowed me to share these with you guys And cheers Greenday, couldn't agree with you more! -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
As i have been given permission to share, something amazing happened this evening, some intence showers crossed the Island, 2 of them produced 2 waterspouts, one of showers had what apperared to waterspout, along with 2 funnels next to it -
Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->
Stormyking replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z now rolling out, hopefully it carries on the same theme with some potential heat building after this unsettled period. Tonight can already see winds picking up more along with a showery theme -
I have started to get a bit of an Autumn vibe, but am not ready too lose the warmth for a while yet My thoughts on this Autumn September: I'm going for a warm month, with a couple of plume events, especially first half, towards the 2nd part, I reckon we will see the first Atlantic Autumn Low, before high pressure builds behind, leaving the very end of the Month dry, settled and sunny. October, I am expecting a reasonably dry Month, with high pressure close to us or over us for the first part, Temperatures around the Mid to High teens, 2nd half, remaining fairly dry to start with, then turning somewhat unsettled from the Atlantic, with rain, strong winds and even coastal surface based showers/thunderstorms. November: Starting unsettled with a similar pattern, but settling down some crisp sunny days along with frost nights and mist and fog sort of theme. Right at the end of the month i'm going for the first wintry spell, with sleety snowy stuff for parts of the UK
-
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Sometimes rain and storms doesn't have to be where the strongest cape and lifted is, that is also surface based, so there may be some little disturbances further up into the mid level,. Looking at this there is a little boost of Mid Level cape in the channel and just touching the South Coast of the UK, there may also be other little features that could turn parts of this rain quite Thundery, im about 50-60% Confident there could be the odd flash and bang in parts of this rain, as it does look more and more convective as each run comes out. Ive kept an eye on this all week lol. Little things like this, the Surface winds across the South and South East Is North Easterly Yet the Mid Level winds are coming from The South to South East andyou can see a convergence zone of some sort coming in from the West Hope some of this helps somewhat matey and to others, in actual im willing to go as far 65% confidence for some thunder potential embedded -
Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->
Stormyking replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Charts looking pretty average to say the least, quite unsettled with some much needed rain to be honest, it has actually been a dry summer! Tomorrow Morning is looking wet for quite a lot of the country, but quick clears. Furthder out into the runs, looks pretty average to me, cool Nw'erlies, though some days look quite showery too me which could be good for more thunder risk for parts of the country. Im afraid im gonna have to disagree with this bit, there ha actually been 3/4 different plumes,since the end of june and not just 1 brief one so to be honest it has really been a rinse and repeat in the last 4 weeks, mid to highs 20's for majority of parts, and a couple of 30's in there too. As for the rest of the summer, and im including the first part of September too, there is plenty of time for more heat still. This is just my view on it -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Hope your all enjoying our storms that triggered over us earlier haha, anyways was at Bowls most of the Evening so I missed out on the best of the Lightning to start, however as i finished, an incredible structured storm developed on the island, and gave some cgs and loud thunder, and the rain was enourmous! The 2nd wave wasn't all that special, gave quite a bit of lightning but was all up in the cloud, however the storms structure it self looked out of this world, was incredible! -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
Stormyking replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Looking at everything, im trying very very hard not to get excited right now, all i can is now its suddenly warmed up in the last hour here, the first woft of that plume, also over west wight the cloud has broken and is sunny and very warm apparently. Shall keep you all updated -
Interesting again for Thursday Night, especially for the South East and Midlands Northwards, my area looks borderline at this moment in time, though im not going to complain as we had them unexpected storms Friday night Latest 12z has some decent Wind sheer too for Thursday Evening along the South Coast which could also be an Interesting feature
-
Im not one for bragging, but i feel quite proud to say we were one of the only forecasters to predict the risk of thundery showers, mainly it was my mate who pointed it out due to previeous experience, as proof this was our forecast at around 4:15pm https://www.facebook.com/IsleOfWightWeather/photos/a.578987685453758.1073741825.562651267087400/1048052958547226/?type=1&theater Like I say I dont like to brag or anything lol
-
Now for the main one from our storm chase on the isle of wight, this was taken by my mate too who also gave me permission
- 796 replies
-
- 18