Stormyking

Heights definatly seem to be shooting to Greenland quicker than on the 6z 12'z 6z Though the Arctic not quite as strong so far, its still there which is good to see

This Morning started a lot brighter, though there were still a couple of showers that skimmed the South Coast of the Island. Cloud has slowly thickened during the Afternoon, however though the winds have been very calm and the sea was the calmest it looked in Weeks! Wish I had got a picture Current Temperature: 6.2'c Overnight low 4.6 High: 7.9'c

Definetly an Interestin trend showing from a whole variety of models, GFS particularly a big upgrade this Morning wanting to build heights towards Greenland, and also that great big Arctic High. In the the meantime though we still have a week of Unsettled Weather with quite a lot of Wind and rain around, some very showery days around too especially around coastal areas which could be on the thundery side me think in some areas. However Temperatures a lot cooler, with some overnight frosts too in places And some wintriness sleet/snow over high ground Scotland All eyes now on the 12z thats just began to role out!

Thankyou! personally I this next photo was probably my favourite looking shower of the day, it was an absolute beast! This was just before we went to Bembridge, this was Sandown Bay looking at the full Culver view which is my favourite place to be honest

Great day for Weather, Showers galore and even some rainbows and hail too here's a photo from Today, we ended up at Bembridge (IOW) and managed capture this, can make out the hailcore too

Great Weather day today, absolutlEy full of heavy showers, some with Hail, some beautiful cloud structures and towers too!

Very very showery day today, though nothing too heavy as yet, there are and have been pretty nice cloud structures today, Wind is relatively calm too and it doesn't feel overly chilly either. Temperature is 9.1'c

Living on the coast/Isle of Wight the convective weather normally carries on through due to the warmer seas, many times ive seen ou best Surface based type storms in October, November, December and even January. But of coarse if you live inland it is understandable, im an all rounder when it comes to extreme Weather, but for me Thunderstorms will edge over everything. This year has been the first Autumn/Early Winter ive ever known for there not to be some sort of Thundery activity from the Channel, from October through to 3 days ago where we actually managed a small storm on the West coast of the Island on NYE Only a month and a half or 2 months away until the inland stuff starts to becomes better, which we will sure be chasing haha

Im quite interested into Tonight, too me it looks as though showers will start to become alot more organised, think ill be up most of the night! -2 lifted touching the South of the island with better wind sheer, anwhere along the South and South West Coast could well be in the risk zone! Ive dfinatly missed the convective weather for sure!

Another very poor Morning of runs from the GFS and ECM for Coldies, there isn't hiding away from it at all right now, again though it is still very Early Winter, so plenty of oppurtunities cant be ruled out through. These temperatures for Thursday though look pretty crazy for the time of year, still interested to see whether the record will be broken

Slight better look on the 18z, looks more like a cold zonal shot for a time, still not looking good though, though I think any coldie would take babysteps for anything remotely cold :L

As much as the charts are a complete horror show for coldies, and dont get me wrong I would love it to get cold with Snow, frost, ICE etc. Though as true and proper Weather Enthusiast, i'm finding the potential for the December high temperature to be broken is very Interesting. Still time for things to change on the road to Christmas or just after, though not looking very promising, we all know how sudden things can happen at times. Still also have January, February and even March too :D, in the meantime, I find this incredible Mild weather quite interesting

2013-2014 Winter was anything but Average, it had its own Uniqueness, okay the TEMPERATURES would probably work out around average or just above, but as for the rest, it was just storm after storm after storm, with winds reaching 80- 100mph in quite a few places on various occasions, including the South which is rare to get throughout the winter! Obviously it is a bit different in the North And North West as they get countless times with very storm weather, but for the whole country, I wouldn't class it average at all. As for this Winter, I think as December goes, I think we may get a few surprises, and I think this will be around Christmas time and still think February will be our Month

I may have posted this before, but this is our very own forecast which both me and my friend have writ out and put together ourselves, so here is our winter forecast from the Isle of Wight Weather Community Winter forecast 2015/2016 (December, January and February) This years forecast is somewhat more confusing than previous years due to conflicting signals. If you only want to read about the forecast then please scroll down to the bottom of the article but if you want to read about how we put the forecast together then read on! Producing a winter forecast is extremely difficult, mainly because small scale events (such as an unexpected cluster of thunderstorms over the Azores for example) can lead to a complete change of weather for us in the UK, so whilst we like to try and forecast a general trend, a specific forecast is completely impossible, even with today's level of technology. So how do we put this forecast together? We use a whole array of different computer models and forecast models and this combined with real-time data of wind strength and directions from various atmospheric altitudes and latitudes. Quasi-biennial oscillation The QBO is a fairly useful tool in predicting the season ahead, especially later in the winter. The QBO is the measurement of wind strength and direction in the upper atmosphere close to the equator. The wind in this area goes through phases, sometimes blowing eastwards, sometimes blowing westwards and this can have a butterfly effect which can impact the weather for the UK. Currently we are in a westward phase of the QBO which evidence shows can have an effect on......... Stratospheric Warming Sudden Stratospheric Warming or an SST can develop at any time during the winter months but more especially later in the winter. It happens when the upper atmosphere suddenly starts to warm at an unprecedented rate, sometimes rising over 100C in just a few days! This disrupts the normal anticlockwise motion of the upper level winds and this can often propagate downwards which in turn can have an effect of disrupting the usual west to east jet stream wind pattern of the troposphere (the area where all the weather takes place). In turn this can cause the jet stream to meander north and south rather than moving west to east which then causes colder air to drift south into mid latitudes (including the UK). Now this is the difficult part! Stratospheric warming's take place quite often when the QBO is in a westerly phase BUT this happens more often when the sunspot activity is high. Currently the sunspot activity is very low and this may lessen the chances of a SST developing. Sunspot activity As mentioned above the activity of the sun can have an influence on atmospheric weather patterns. We have just talked about how the sun and the QBO go hand in hand with producing warming's in the upper atmosphere but there is another side to the story (a conflicting side). During high sunspot activity it is often seen that the Jet stream increases in strength which in turn brings nasty conditions such as wind and rain to many places in western Europe whilst a long period of low sunspot activity can lessen the effect of the jet stream over a longer period of time. This contradicts everything we have said above but there is a reason behind it. When the QBO is neutral or in an easterly phase and the sunspot activity is very low it may lead to a general period of cold and once established my last the whole winter whereas a westerly QBO phase (as now) with low sunspot activity often sees the coldest conditions later in winter such as February and March as this is when the highest chance for a SSW may occur. El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO) I expect you have all heard in the news that there is currently a very strong El Nino taking place. An El Nino is the warm phase of ENSO whereas a La Nina is the cold phase. The warm phase is when the central or eastern tropical pacific ocean warms dramatically and this of course can have a large impact on global weather conditions. A La Nina is when upwelling cold water starts to cool the surface temperature in the central and eastern pacific ocean. In the UK during a strong El Nino we often see high pressure developing towards central and northern Europe and this often brings a dry winter season in those areas including the UK. As well as a dry winter season it is often slightly milder than average as a whole, especially early on in the season during the mid/late autumn and often again mid winter. This year however we have a few conflicting signals which means that although El Nino is likely to have some of the usual effects (drier than average for the UK) the conflicting signals may not keep things quite as mild as the winter develops. Cold pool in the mid Atlantic This is something else that has often been mentioned in the news in recent weeks. A colder than average Atlantic usually has the effect of producing somewhat weaker storm systems due to a slightly weaker Atlantic jet stream and this often means that the low pressure storm systems will either stall out to the west of the UK or reach us in a rather weakened state. Also if High pressure manages to set up to our east it will mean that any rainfall will be deflected as the low pressure systems attempt to move northeastwards around the blocking high pressure area. This also means we may occasionally see a stronger than average Azores high pressure system, especially later in the winter although it is likely to be displaced slightly further south than usual. North Atlantic oscillation The "NAO" is the pressure pattern of the north Atlantic. When it's in a negative phase it means that pressure is higher than usual in high latitudes. When in a positive phase it means that low pressure is more frequent in mid and high latitudes. This winter we think that it will be rather neutral overall with a slightly positive anomaly in December and January. We are expecting there to be a somewhat negative anomaly in February and March. Other data There are a few other things we take into consideration, one of which is the European pressure patterns during October. Using October as a winter guideline isn't an officially validated method but by using certain markers throughout the 40 days from the end of September thought to the start of November we have found a near 75% correlation between those patterns and the period December, January and February. The main part of this method is the persistence of a European high pressure cell throughout October. UK winter forecast 2015/2016 The coming December is a very difficult one to predict due to the mixed signals but current indications point to a fairly average month temperature wise with the potential of one or two cold spells. We think that any cold weather is most likely at the start of the month and again later in the month. We aren't expecting any long duration cold spells but we think there may be a few fairly strong Atlantic storms, especially mid month, also any cold that develops later in the month may be quite intense although of rather short duration. Temperature slightly below average Rainfall slightly below average January is looking like a rather mixed month with a rather chilly start but also signs of a dry mild period mid (possibly around mid month). Later in the month things may turn colder once again. A few Atlantic storms are also likely although we aren't expecting severe conditions like previous years. Any cold spells are likely to be very short lived but possibly quite intense and we certainly wont rule out the odd snowfall although predicting snow at this range is virtually impossible. Temperature close to average Rainfall slightly below average February looks as though it could be rather chilly with a mix of cold dry spells interspersed with wetter slightly milder conditions. We are expecting a handful of colder periods more especially towards the end of the month. Temperature below average Rainfall close to average Please remember that forecasting a whole season ahead with accuracy is impossible so instead we try to pick up on trends. An educated guess-cast is probably a more accurate way to describe it although there is a fair amount of science behind our predictions and our forecasts have proven to be rather effective with a very high accuracy rating for the 2013/2014 winter of storms and an extremely high accuracy rating for the 2010/2011 winter. Forecast put together by Jamie Russell and Ryan Trigg of IOWW.

End of November and beginning of December 2010 will always stand out for me as the best snowy and wintry spell I have experienced to this date so far! The fact we had nearly 24 hours of continuous snow falling from the 2nd into the 3rd of December was just incredible and it was moderate-heavy through out! Not forgetting the thames streamer the night before and various odd snow shower days at the end of november!

Very Interesting RUN, seems to be a trend recently with high pressure towards greenland in the last 2 days, this run is a lot more solid, though wrong side of the low at this point, of coarse its FI, but its nice to a trend

Hi guys, we have just done a winter forecast, these are our thoughts for upcoming winter, just thought I would share it with you, remember this is just a rough idea, doesn't mean this will definatly happen, this is our very own work, no copyright! Winter forecast 2015/2016 (December, January and February) This years forecast is somewhat more confusing than previous years due to conflicting signals. If you only want to read about the forecast then please scroll down to the bottom of the article but if you want to read about how we put the forecast together then read on! Producing a winter forecast is extremely difficult, mainly because small scale events (such as an unexpected cluster of thunderstorms over the Azores for example) can lead to a complete change of weather for us in the UK, so whilst we like to try and forecast a general trend, a specific forecast is completely impossible, even with today's level of technology. So how do we put this forecast together? We use a whole array of different computer models and forecast models and this combined with real-time data of wind strength and directions from various atmospheric altitudes and latitudes. Quasi-biennial oscillation The QBO is a fairly useful tool in predicting the season ahead, especially later in the winter. The QBO is the measurement of wind strength and direction in the upper atmosphere close to the equator. The wind in this area goes through phases, sometimes blowing eastwards, sometimes blowing westwards and this can have a butterfly effect which can impact the weather for the UK. Currently we are in a westward phase of the QBO which evidence shows can have an effect on......... Stratospheric Warming Sudden Stratospheric Warming or an SST can develop at any time during the winter months but more especially later in the winter. It happens when the upper atmosphere suddenly starts to warm at an unprecedented rate, sometimes rising over 100C in just a few days! This disrupts the normal anticlockwise motion of the upper level winds and this can often propagate downwards which in turn can have an effect of disrupting the usual west to east jet stream wind pattern of the troposphere (the area where all the weather takes place). In turn this can cause the jet stream to meander north and south rather than moving west to east which then causes colder air to drift south into mid latitudes (including the UK). Now this is the difficult part! Stratospheric warming's take place quite often when the QBO is in a westerly phase BUT this happens more often when the sunspot activity is high. Currently the sunspot activity is very low and this may lessen the chances of a SST developing. Sunspot activity As mentioned above the activity of the sun can have an influence on atmospheric weather patterns. We have just talked about how the sun and the QBO go hand in hand with producing warming's in the upper atmosphere but there is another side to the story (a conflicting side). During high sunspot activity it is often seen that the Jet stream increases in strength which in turn brings nasty conditions such as wind and rain to many places in western Europe whilst a long period of low sunspot activity can lessen the effect of the jet stream over a longer period of time. This contradicts everything we have said above but there is a reason behind it. When the QBO is neutral or in an easterly phase and the sunspot activity is very low it may lead to a general period of cold and once established my last the whole winter whereas a westerly QBO phase (as now) with low sunspot activity often sees the coldest conditions later in winter such as February and March as this is when the highest chance for a SSW may occur. El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO) I expect you have all heard in the news that there is currently a very strong El Nino taking place. An El Nino is the warm phase of ENSO whereas a La Nina is the cold phase. The warm phase is when the central or eastern tropical pacific ocean warms dramatically and this of course can have a large impact on global weather conditions. A La Nina is when upwelling cold water starts to cool the surface temperature in the central and eastern pacific ocean. In the UK during a strong El Nino we often see high pressure developing towards central and northern Europe and this often brings a dry winter season in those areas including the UK. As well as a dry winter season it is often slightly milder than average as a whole, especially early on in the season during the mid/late autumn and often again mid winter. This year however we have a few conflicting signals which means that although El Nino is likely to have some of the usual effects (drier than average for the UK) the conflicting signals may not keep things quite as mild as the winter develops. Cold pool in the mid Atlantic This is something else that has often been mentioned in the news in recent weeks. A colder than average Atlantic usually has the effect of producing somewhat weaker storm systems due to a slightly weaker Atlantic jet stream and this often means that the low pressure storm systems will either stall out to the west of the UK or reach us in a rather weakened state. Also if High pressure manages to set up to our east it will mean that any rainfall will be deflected as the low pressure systems attempt to move northeastwards around the blocking high pressure area. This also means we may occasionally see a stronger than average Azores high pressure system, especially later in the winter although it is likely to be displaced slightly further south than usual. North Atlantic oscillation The "NAO" is the pressure pattern of the north Atlantic. When it's in a negative phase it means that pressure is higher than usual in high latitudes. When in a positive phase it means that low pressure is more frequent in mid and high latitudes. This winter we think that it will be rather neutral overall with a slightly positive anomaly in December and January. We are expecting there to be a somewhat negative anomaly in February and March. Other data There are a few other things we take into consideration, one of which is the European pressure patterns during October. Using October as a winter guideline isn't an officially validated method but by using certain markers throughout the 40 days from the end of September thought to the start of November we have found a near 75% correlation between those patterns and the period December, January and February. The main part of this method is the persistence of a European high pressure cell throughout October. UK winter forecast 2015/2016 The coming December is a very difficult one to predict due to the mixed signals but current indications point to a fairly average month temperature wise with the potential of one or two cold spells. We think that any cold weather is most likely at the start of the month and again later in the month. We aren't expecting any long duration cold spells but we think there may be a few fairly strong Atlantic storms, especially mid month, also any cold that develops later in the month may be quite intense although of rather short duration. Temperature slightly below average Rainfall slightly below average January is looking like a rather mixed month with a rather chilly start but also signs of a dry mild period mid (possibly around mid month). Later in the month things may turn colder once again. A few Atlantic storms are also likely although we aren't expecting severe conditions like previous years. Any cold spells are likely to be very short lived but possibly quite intense and we certainly wont rule out the odd snowfall although predicting snow at this range is virtually impossible. Temperature close to average Rainfall slightly below average February looks as though it could be rather chilly with a mix of cold dry spells interspersed with wetter slightly milder conditions. We are expecting a handful of colder periods more especially towards the end of the month. Temperature below average Rainfall close to average Please remember that forecasting a whole season ahead with accuracy is impossible so instead we try to pick up on trends. An educated guess-cast is probably a more accurate way to describe it although there is a fair amount of science behind our predictions and our forecasts have proven to be rather effective with a very high accuracy rating for the 2013/2014 winter of storms and an extremely high accuracy rating for the 2010/2011 winter. Hope you enjoy the read

White festive period anyone? This wlll change, but just for fun, that definitely be cold enough for snow right across the South and the rest of the UK

I do remember it being very slow moving, I think the low had actually stalled, remember the winds turning from South Westerly here then turned Southerly, thats when it turned to snow, and then eventually turned East North Easterly, definitely a slow moving event,

I remember that forecast very clearly, I must admit I was like a little kid watching it haha, couldn't control the excitement! I believe it was the Tuesday Night into Wednesday when the big dumping happened, remember it raining heavy Tuesday night, we was going to go inland where the rest of the island had turned to Snow, then within seconds the rain turned into blizzard, it was mad! Wednesday 6th January 2010 had 2/3 snowy spells, most notable one early Afternoon, had a solid hour or 2 of extremely heavy snow, I have a picture here from that exact same event. Here's hoping to 2015-2016

This I couldnt agree with more! Scandi highs, sinking lows etc is a recipe for UK snow or cold, All I know is that people shouldnt panick, I think this winter could throw a few surprises

December 2010 and to some extent 2013 was 2 of my favourite years, it will take alot to beat December 2010, The fact it started snowing around 8:30pm, which fell onto our already thames streamer dusting from that Morning, I remember watching that of snow band moving in so so clearly, it started, then looked out the window an hour later and already had 4 inches of level snow, little did I know this snow falling was gonna last until 4:30 that next Afternoon! places on island averaged 10 inches of level snow, some upto just over a foot, with 6 foot drifts! If this winter we get even a 1/4 or half of it, Ill be over the moon!

Seeing as I lost most of shots from last night which I was gutted about, I did manage to retrieve this shot, travelled all the way to Alum for the Eclipse

Well that was fun, nice small storm jsut rolled through here, Lightning was frequent, had a couple of loud rumbles, but the structure of the cell that came in looked pretty awesome to be honest, with some torrential rain too

Sexticularcumulus