near northampton

Pauski

Indeed also add in 3 record Breaking months for warmth, June and September 23 and Feb 23 also smashing the January record this year which was every not a dramatic as July 22, clearly CC, but models continue to show anomalous rainfalls totals,

Incorrect, the Northern Home Counties and Gloucestershire where I live both had significant snowfall in December 2022, was over a foot of snow in the high Cotswolds and 6 inches here in Cheltenham which lay on the ground for a week. It wasn't forecast and occurred in a slack flow. You are taking the precip charts at face value here.

Indeed, and before the the euro high was established, Spain broke its all time December high on the 12th December with 29.9c in Malaga. Much is talked about scandi cold pooling earlier in the December, no one it appears was looking the other way. Month after month of record high breaking temperatures across Europe. Of course that in itself is not a driver of our weather now? Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4978474

Indeed, and before the the euro high was established, Spain broke its all time December high on the 12th December with 29.9c in Malaga. Much is talked about scandi cold pooling earlier in the December, no one it appears was looking the other way. Month after month of record high breaking temperatures across Europe. Of course that in itself is not a driver of our weather now?

Disagree with the first part of your post but totally agree with the 2nd part some reality

Both scenarios are highly unlikely, how many times have the above occurred in the last 20 years?

What are the overriding factors?

I look at this chart and see lowland southern Germany and wonder what their Weather forums are discussing! We need some perspective here I think

For potential cold weather Strange times, outside of NWP Matt Hugo not very interested backed up by Tamara, Exeter don't seem interested, has anyone ever considered all the models are wrong?

It's the hope that will kill you, when was the last time the models showed a Scandinavian hiigh at 10 days and it happens? rare as hen's teeth. I do think that NWP has not adjusted to our warming climate in Winter

You have stated that AAM will remain positive and when questioned why you have assured us that 2 other occasional albeit educated members will give us an explanation for your statement?

I live 2 miles from the airport, if the wind direction is correct we should see a foehn effect off leckhampton hill and another high temperature, maybe 32c

You are absolutely correct, however the phrase has crossed the Atlantic and been adapted in the UK to mean a spell of warm weather in September or October

Yep good question, love to have some insight from this very thankful prolific poster as to why September "might" have an unsettled theme? Why