Darren Bown

A shower on radar popped up at Ellesmere Port. Let’s see.

I think if it’s not happened by 10, that’s it, this kind of reminds me of 2015 I think, 1st July? Where big storms kicked off around 9:30pm in NW England.

Looks like Cumbria, especially the south, would do well!

I think anything could form up to midnight really.

Looks like the south has done well with this, kind of as per with set ups like this. Surprised it’s not kicked off up here. Especially with more potential here.

I’m about 30 mins from giving up ?

The radar gets worse each time!

The radar looks even worse ? EDIT shower gone up east of Aberystwyth, so it’s still kicking off

We’ve swapped haha I was optimistic last night, you less so. ? I’m still hoping, instability is still to the west, and the showers can fire quickly!

The showers in wales are being frustrating! Hope they develop as they move. I can see the top of the storm out in the Irish Sea currently.

Strikes seem to have stopped.

Hope the showers in central wales develop as those will head towards me and Manchester. The beast in n Wales will hit Liverpool.

its starting to kick off in Wales. Perfect!

We are probably just at the start of the instability, if nothing has happened by 8, then I’ll be a bit more pessimistic.

Is it those showers in the SW moving north? I thought showers were to start in N Wales? I assume we are still looking in that area? I’m home now and after it clouded about an hour ago, it’s back to clear skies now

He has a point that the showers up here won’t get going for at least another hour, and for you, it will probably be more 8-10pm.

Acas as I’m heading north to Warrington. Nothing expected until AT LEAST 5pm up here, more like 7ish.

NEed to watch wales over the next 2-3 hours too, especially the north/east.

Convective Weather has updated and this comment is brilliant for NW England. ’Surface observations suggest low-level wind convergence is beginning to develop over N Wales, and should continue to strengthen this afternoon, while expanding into NW England. This combined with increased forcing aloft should allow a few surface-based thunderstorms to initiate from about 17-18z onwards, initial focus over N Wales and then gradually shifting NE-wards across northern England during the evening hours. Particular focus is given to the western half of this MDT area.’

‘Surface observations suggest low-level wind convergence is beginning to develop over N Wales, and should continue to strengthen this afternoon, while expanding into NW England. This combined with increased forcing aloft should allow a few surface-based thunderstorms to initiate from about 17-18z onwards, initial focus over N Wales and then gradually shifting NE-wards across northern England during the evening hours. Particular focus is given to the western half of this MDT area.’ This is brilliant for NW England.

Clouds developing in stoke, and quite a breeze picking up!

I’m in stoke and it’s clear still, so perhaps convection is getting going as the air becomes a little less stable?

Although looking at the met office, even though warnings are out, their forecast seems to be saying very few showers tonight.

Still clear from stoke up to Manchester, so plenty of heat. NW England seems to be favourable atm.

All eyes on Wales I guess then for stuff to start breaking out. Saw someone on UKWW post potential for super cells right where I am this evening?