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It Might Snow

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  1. Interesting to see that Matt Hugo tweeting that there may have been some changes eleswhere in the World that have led to todays changes in the models. It look like they fall into Scott Ingham's area of interest and so it would be great to hear what Scott's thoughts are going forward. Looking at the changes though between the the model runs from both versions of the GSF today I am not sure anything is set in stone yet. Big swings as to where high and low pressure is predicted between runs today.
  2. Is it poor for the UK? I can see his point re the US though.
  3. Well if you liked that update the correct one for today is even better as that is yesterdays update still. Here is the correct one. UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019: Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas
  4. UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 7 Feb 2018: Through this period the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, showers and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. On the whole, temperatures are
  5. I am not sure that they would be commenting on something in these updates that is yet to happen and would they comment on the results of this thing that has not occurred yet at this stage anyway as they don't know what the results of this possible event are yet.I don't think the dice have been picked up yet.
  6. If you click the link Dances with wings provided the forecast is now available. Provides an interesting comparison to the other long range forecasts seen so far.
  7. Not wanting to prolong this but he does have a point Shedhead, your original post shows the same 1st Feb chart for the GFS and ECM as the Meto and GEM chart that he is using as an alternative to your own view. They are not T+ 192 charts that you posted.
  8. Not aimed at this one post but to most of those that have appeared in the last 10 minutes or so. As someone who is still learning I wonder how so many can be so sure the GFS has now predicted our weather for the next 15 days correctly. With this model due to be replaced shortly I would think caution is required. Am I missing something here, is the replacement model an upgrade of an already effective computer model, or a replacement for one that now struggles, the reasons for which are beyond my understanding. I think it is the latter.
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