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Everything posted by Rocheydub
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rocheydub replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Best case scenario. the low pushing up from the south stalls and proceeds to fill slowly and keep us in the very cold air after dumping all its white goodness on us. It's possible if the high pressure remains strong ! -
That makes 2 of us!!! If this goes as the ECM and UKMO are predicting, the whole island will do well, even the snow starved people in my area! I'd be 70% confident at this stage and only worry is the GFS output. If that keeps up it's a real concern for us snow lovers! Hopefully it all changes tonight at 10pm!!
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Rocheydub replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A fellow Irishman using the term sober. Looking at the GFS, I've a feeling we'll need a stiff drink! And the bitter irony is it's the pub run! -
My front garden is slightly elevated, as such it loses water very quickly and I have to water it often in the summer. Walked across the grass this evening and it's sodden. I'm living here over 20 years and I've never seen it like that. I literally splodged* across the grass. *Yes, I did make that word up.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Rocheydub replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can I make a suggestion, put certain posters that over-ramp prospects of cold on mute if it bothers you? I have some on mute and it makes this thread WAY more interesting and informative -
Just looking at the charts now, fair to say that IF they came off like that, a lot of the island would be seeing white stuff falling on the big day. The wind would be strong enough to blow it a good bit inland and it will feel baltic!!! Now just 12 more days of model watching to get to a point of confidence.
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Some wind over the last couple of days, it was supposed to die down yesterday afternoon, so I ventured up the ladder to the eaves to hang the house lights up, had to grab on a couple of times with the force of the wind. Never again! Orange warning for Saturday but felt today was way worse. 2 named storms 2 days in a row is pretty rare. And a hurricane in Leitrim today. Mental times.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Rocheydub replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's quite remarkable really, very unusual. Not that it's a precursor for any HLB, but at least it's not a hinder. Very interesting model watching this evening. Shannon E is warming her voice on honey. -
Bravo! It's going to be cold enough for us all to see snow from tonight onwards really. Keeping my fingers crossed. Haven't had long snow here since March 2018. That's creeping up on 6 years. Dublin snow shield is as good as it gets! Models are really unsure about longevity and Met Eireann keeping their powder dry too! As always, time will tell!
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Rocheydub replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ahem, sleetperson! -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Rocheydub replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's GEM -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Rocheydub replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, it usually happens around the final 1/3 of October and into November. Like as if an alarm clock is set for the SPV to wake up every year! -
No let up on the Hurricane season, very brisk start to it. Another East Atlantic hurricane whipping up, this one looking to make significant progress north into the Atlantic. Not yet named but identified as 15. This certainly looks like it will join Lee by catching into the jet and ripping across the ocean to our shores. Margot has dissipated significantly without making progress.
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Sorry to break away from this heat today, but this storm I've been keeping a watch on has been named Tropical storm Margot and is still on course to develop into a hurricane and it's path is now predicted on a more NNW trajectory by Wednesday. Very strong likelihood it will get pulled up into the jet stream and booted over near us.