Rocheydub

Haven't had time to look at the charts today, but last night ECM didn't even show it! Will know more by Thursday regarding track and strength etc. Deffo one worth watching!

Clear blue skies here…

Love it folks. Keep the snow pics and videos coming. I love the silence that descends when snow starts falling... It's magical.

Not on this run. But I can feel it in my waters! A watching brief continues!

Is it going to blow up heights in Scandy on this run? Not far off it. Next few frames will tell. Pretty consistent modelling for that area of late.

Yet again, despite the impending bowling ball low (actually, medicine ball may be more appropriate, the sheer size of it) you can see models wishing to drain away the low heights from Scandy.

Increments on each run. Frankly can't see it going up to midlands. When it was prog'd first on the NWP it was midlands, I and many others said it would go south on each run, as is the form of these things.

GFS 12z definitely more amplified around Greenland than it was on the 6z.

Really hope the ICON is on to something here. Especially like the kink in flow over the Scotland, that may deliver some precipitation for my locale. All eyes down now for GFS

Yes possibly. I'm looking at wind direction, thickness and 850's. It would be a bit shocking to me if the chart I posted verified without a few localised disturbances in the flow. Game on if ICON is to be believed. Let's see what GFS says.

Hope for those of us on the eastern side of the island on Wednesday as Icon predict the low to be a bit more northerly. That looks like it could throw snow our way. I think that most northern areas will see snow on Monday too. Hope for us all?

I for one, am encouraged going forward. I noticed it yesterday and again today and it also ties in (somewhat) with what @Tamara has been saying If you look at the 2 below T240 charts from ECM and GFS, you will notice the draining away of low heights from Svalbard area with hints of height rises nudging in. I will enjoy the bitter cold as it arrives tomorrow night and maybe I will see a few flakes. It's only 3 degrees today feeling a lot colder and I love that! (To each their own) but as the week draws to a close, I will be watching for hints of HP cells creeping into Scandy. I realise model fatigue is strong, but I have been fascinated watching how all this has begun to unfurl. I'm keeping the faith.

I'm not so sure why there is so much weeping and gnashing of teeth here, models with egg on face etc. These are super computers who do not compute embarrassment or emotions. The computers picked up the long wave signals a good few weeks back and stuck with it generally speaking. That's all we can expect from those distances and I think they did superbly well at that. The micro and macro scale of 2 such tiny islands in the grand scheme of things is nigh on impossible to get 100% correct at these big time differences. If you're not aware of the phrase "if a butterfly flaps its wings" then I suggest you google it. Chill pill. It's only weather after all. Worldwide life in our recent months and years shows us we all actually have vey little to moan about if a lack of snow is your biggest worry. Back to the models. I'm not going to post the ECM 240 chart as it's on several pics up above, but I'm greatly encouraged to see the clear signal for the draining of low heights over Svalbard and Scandy. The would give us a quick enough route into another cold spell. I'll be keeping a keen eye on that area next after this week is over. I'll enjoy this week, whatever it brings, I wish you all well in your chase. Whatever your weather desires are. But remember, posters here and the NWP super computers don't decide the weather, mammy nature does. Much love.

Maybe if ye hadn't voted for Brexit..... *Grabs coat, runs...

Block is absolutely stronger on the T114, compared to T120 from the 6z. Good so far!

Tamara is the Nigella Lawson of Netweather…

At T-96 and the cold air really digging south. Beautiful.

Today's run is for the 14th, but I see your point.

It's around years, best use (IMO) for it is short time frame predictions of 850's, thickness, precipitation etc.

Still think you guys up in the northern half will see some on Monday and Tuesday. And if you believe the output from this morning, it's only the appetiser!

And it all went the shape of the pear on that run. I didn't see the comment above. I said what I saw on the charts.

All that said, if GFS is correct, it will go down in the annals of weather chasing fails with many others! Also, the NH profile is still very unusual, conducive to -NAO and another chase. Even if this is a fail, there's plenty of opportunities as we move on.

Yuck! The outcome, you can see where it goes wrong at 126/132

This is a tad worrying now, I was expecting at least moderate change earlier in the run. Not looking forward to tomorrow morning's runs with my usual anticipation.

Welcome @Snowdrift18 I of course, am in full alignment with you! Damned east coast snow shield!