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weirpig

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    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Southender said:

    Thanks for the update Matt, although not the sort of update most of us in here want to see unfortunately.

    Let's hope the ENS flip in our favour for once, although the form horse suggests otherwise.

    i think i must have read the wrong update,  i read it as clusters are mainly going for a zonal flow  however they are useless at this juncture  and Matt expects ever so slightly to favour a more blocked regime.  Still very much up in the air is how i  construed it.

    • Like 6

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    This is what I imagine when I read the Meto Long range and is a very strong possibility IMO.  Not great for snow lovers but hopefully some sunny cool frosty days like we have had recently and the chance for something more interesting further down the line if the high goes North West or North East

    Yep  the control is very similar aswell  keeps blocking right thorugh to the end of the run,  not amazing uppers but will feel cold 

    gensnh-0-1-384.png

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    There is still no appreciable troughing to our S though with heights extending S into France on that GFS ensemble chart. Until we see heights drop further S across Central and S Europe we will struggle to get any meaningful cold uppers into the UK.

    Me personally I'd settle for a transient north westerly at this point . Pulling teeth 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Give Crewe Cold a break. Regardless of how strong a signal there is for cold later in December this doesn't mean its nailed on or people should rush out to get the full sledge gear!

    The atmosphere is fluid its not a set thing, todays strong signal is just that. The old timers in here have seen this all before and so its understandable that we're being a little cautious because nothing is ever certain in the world of weather modelling.

    We hope for the best but I have the Prozac ordering line on speed dial just in case!

    I think it was more to do with the fact that he said cold is always at week 4. When in fact it's cold now and likely to be for the next week  ok not snowmaggedon  but certainly below average  which compared to most winters is good. I just wonder if the e c m and the met had been predicting south westerlies  for the Christmas period how many would be saying its nailed on ?   Let's just enjoy the next week or so of seasonal weather and see what happens 

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