-
Posts
10,425 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by weirpig
-
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well while its quiet i havnt seem much posting on the GFS Parra it has a nasty storm hitting just before Christmas for the south with possibly a few flakes in the air for the big day. One of many options Edit looked at wrong run -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
not at all. Quite a few of the ensembles still having blocking in place a few days up to the christmas period . Way to early i think yet to call anything -
Well it was certainly a active period yesterday. China also i believe registered a 6.5 quake
-
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
i think i must have read the wrong update, i read it as clusters are mainly going for a zonal flow however they are useless at this juncture and Matt expects ever so slightly to favour a more blocked regime. Still very much up in the air is how i construed it. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Will The ensembles paint a lovely picture going forward most have blocking and a few have a bitter easterly setting in. Hopefully something to build on. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Maybe I'm chasing the pot of gold at the end of a very long rainbow. But some of the ensembles paint quite a nice picture. Height rises do seem the theme some to the north east and a few to the northwest still mileage in this yet -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
yes pete, However some of the ensembles now are starting to show blocking including the control. Hopefully we will start to see this being shown soon on the opp. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep the control is very similar aswell keeps blocking right thorugh to the end of the run, not amazing uppers but will feel cold -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
weirpig replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I dont know if anyone has posted any commemnts on the Gfs Parra but its certainly showing blocking. Just wish the opp would follow suit -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Me personally I'd settle for a transient north westerly at this point . Pulling teeth -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
mmm A quick look at the ensembles and there to me isnt really alot to shout about no signal is clearly showing. As the tweet above by Ian shows lots of things still to be resolved. Below is possibly best of the bunch (for cold) the other shows us becoming more tied to Europe literally. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'll think I'll look at this thread again when sanity resumes -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lol We are all posting the same thing, Some quite impressive blocking towards Greenland on a few of the Perbs hopefully we shall start to see this firm up on the following suites. ps Its bitter here today local pool is frozen over first time in a few years. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think it was more to do with the fact that he said cold is always at week 4. When in fact it's cold now and likely to be for the next week ok not snowmaggedon but certainly below average which compared to most winters is good. I just wonder if the e c m and the met had been predicting south westerlies for the Christmas period how many would be saying its nailed on ? Let's just enjoy the next week or so of seasonal weather and see what happens -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well you can see the dividing line between the warm and cold air it's the exact shape as the outline of Britain. Is someone having a laugh -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs with the northerly love in again -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It amazing really that at only 120 the control and Opp read the shortwave in the atlantic totally different. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well Ladies and Gents i give you the GFS 6z for longevity of cold i dont think i have seen many better. maybe even a Scandi high showing at the end of the run. But is it Right?? you cares i just love to see charts like that which shows it is possible if the dice fall right. On to the ensembles