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ITSY

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    Western Cambridgeshire / LEEDS
  1. Absolutely. Massively noteworthy, esp for a NWly. Unlike then though this spell will be fuelled along by Southern envy I suspect....
  2. Not often that even on a WNWly the East of England would receive two snow events, shows the potency of this upcoming spell. Really think that N Ireland, the Republic, W Scotland, and the NW of England could get burried - especially if you're at altitude. Low uppers, constant showers, plenty of potential for more than one low or runner type scenario, with cold applenty in all directions but the south. Even the UKMO, though less potent in terms of its runners/uppers combo for the South of England, shows huge potential. To those talking about marginality for the south and this being an altitude only or Northern only event, the two southern snow events in December (especially the first one two weeks before Christmas) are proof that uppers only *need* to be -1/-2 even at sea level to deliver serious snowfall. (I grant you that those events weren't on Westerly winds that temper out the cold of the N or NE, but nevertheless, too early to rule anything in or out).
  3. Some ens members going off the cliff temperature wise, with very interesting hemispheric Synoptics. I get the feeling that the tropherishic pressure on the PV, coupled with possible stratospheric warmings, could really open up some opportunities for cold lovers as we hit the back end of this month and move towards February...
  4. Quite an exciting run this. Synoptically very easy to watch, with virtually all of the UK between -4 and -6C Uppers from T+126 until T+216, by which point the Nwlies have veered Nly and NNEly. Can’t sniff from a coldie perspective (forgive the half pun). Very interesting to watch how these Synoptics correlate if at all with possible strat developments being alluded to, the 18Z continues the theme towards a late jan warming which appears to have been picked up to a weak extent anyway by GloSea. Eyes down and toys in the cupboard please...
  5. Not posted in a while but very intrigued by this evenings GFS. The far reaches of high res suggesting it could be a second bite at the cherry for the slider, if it comes to fruition. Bets on ECM going full blown zonal at midnight? Quite high 😋
  6. This would be the heaviest snowfall in virtually a generation for Cambridge. I’ll swim naked in the Cam if that happens.
  7. I actually disagree - I think at shorter range distances, the HD resolution models are designed to pick up specifics whereas the broader, bigger models are intended to identify medium term trends. In fact, if you look at the BBC forecasts they bear a striking resemblance to both of the above models in the output for Sunday. On balance I think most in our region will most probably still see a snow-rain event (apart from the far south and far north with different outcomes), but I wouldn’t discount things like this from happening (not that you are, but you know what I mean)...
  8. Don't doubt they have a better handle than I do. Just making my own observations on an internet forum.
  9. Haven't posted in a while - and I'm too busy to give it a real go. But I would say that, speaking from an IMBY POV, Cambs is unlikely to see any significant accumulations. Meto warning almost hand in glove with ARPEGE - which is far closer to GFS than ECM. Won't take very many last minute changes (with a 50 mile correction southwards and eastwards for example) for parts of our county to get a serious snowfall, but on the basis of the current forecast I suggest expect little or nothing to avoid disappointment. The issue is the wrapping of the low as it spins NNW while travelling Eastwards across the UK; it spurts warmer uppers into our region at just the worst moment, meaning that the system may have frontal and back-edge snow while the bulk is rain for most in central East Anglia. Central midlands, perhaps even East Midlands if the system moves northwards enough, could get 4-6inches widely I suspect.
  10. Anyone who thinks this is a downgrade needs to sit in a dark room.
  11. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Runs getting colder towards the end - but don't be fooled, the route to cold does not look straightforward. Many of these end up biting the third or fourth cherry despite apparently looking an apple in the face...
  12. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Some of those ensembles are absolutely bonkers. That said, notes of caution: 1. Nothing is close to the reliable 2. The lurking danger of a Westerly based -NAO is real if you look through the charts, which would no doubt leave many super frustrated 3. Simultaneously, the prospect of raging easterlies with uppers of only -1 or -2 is equally real - several members show this. I think that if/when our first shot comes, it will have to be via a direct northerly flow if we are to get a short and snappy route to cold and snow. For optimism, the number of runs that show 1, 2, 3 or more chances for readjustment, new blocks, and new routes to cold are eyebrow raising at least. Therefore caveat my prior warning about a northerly with the notion that it may not matter.... final point - any run that sends Europe into the freezer should be welcome. It opens up our routes to cold exponentially, esp if northern blocking is on the cards.
  13. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Some of the ensembles are insane again - the NH profile really is bizarre for the time of year and totally at odds with recent years. Clustering on the evening run trending closer to -5 by the end of the run...and very tightly packed given the distance. Don't quite know what that means but clearly they are latching onto a signal...
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