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ITSY

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  1. Both show possible snow events for the SE quarter - albeit March/April sun likely to mitigate impacts
  2. I've got a few things for you, all from 1 run on the GEFS - we haven't seen images like these for 2 months... Might lead to nothing but still shows a window of possibility for something that until hasn't existed since November.
  3. True but too soon for these to matter I think. The PV is not in a happy place, that’s the main thing- so long as it stays so. Here’s some of tonight’s more interesting options...
  4. Aye, at the risk of going down at tangent December 2009 delivered more snow to Cambridge than anything in January, November or December 2010. Peculiarities of local British weather... Back to the strat, the latest GFS Op run gets to -20 above the pole - first significant warming. Let's see if it continues...
  5. The Control aligns pretty perfectly at this point. Will be interesting to see where it sits within the ensembles, quite a few playing around with this following the ECM 00z Edit, ensembles are very interesting! Many play around with similar pressure rises and drops on the northern and western perimeter of the Atlantic
  6. Not quite sure where to put this so it's going here! But look at the bottom right hand corner - a "Medicane" with all the (eye wall!) features of a (admittedly weak) tropical cyclone off the coasts of Egypt, Gaza and Israel. Truly ridiculous - local forecasts suggesting almost 300mms+ of rain off the Haifa coast (Israel) by Saturday. Anyone in the region going desert hiking should be warned: flash flooding is almost a certainty if this comes off...
  7. Don’t know if it’s to do with the power cut but I was unfortunate enough to be caught in my work suit while biking home in Cambridge just now. Truly, I’ve never seen anything like it. Instantaneous surface water flooding, lightning overhead, was absolutely drenched - my shoes emptied like a bucket of water when I got home, had to ring out my socks 3 times. Insane weather! More on the way by the looks of things, must have been over 30mms or more in 15 minutes, wouldn’t be surprised if it was way higher
  8. That patch of sub zero temps in the south midlands/home counties/EA reflects a cover of 10-15cms so no surprises there. Just one of many options at the moment but possible only if the wrap around is fast enough and the low initially SWly enough...
  9. I'm sorry but a +28 isotherm should never be due north of a -6 one. There is something very wrong with this chart. ?
  10. Reloading pattern via sliders, a pattern we’ve become accustomed to in the last few days. Just a tad chilly!
  11. Holy moly! if anything like this or the prior GFS Op run comes off, it’ll be pandemonium. Let’s see where it sits in the GEFS and then await the 00Zs... just staggering charts really from GFS, you couldn’t draw them better edit: I mean, look at this. The mean flow in the northern hemisphere is the wrong way round for heaven sake!
  12. As far as the operationals go, it’s ECM/IKON/NAVGEM vs UKMO/GFS/FV3/JMA/GEM, Majority clusters so far only available for GEM and GEFS. For these it’s 60/40 in favour of cold for the GEM (albeit with milder clusters into low res) and 70/30 cold for GEFS. Let’s await the ENS next. We can and should be very excited if it’s cold you’re after - but with a dose of realism that it’s never a done deal on this island until we’re within T12, especially with Easterlies. Other options not to be discounted just yet...
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