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ITSY

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  1. Control picking up a similar signal re HLB post Xmas, coinciding with wave 1 strat warming
  2. From what I understand, tropospheric forcing on the PV (through HLBs, however small) maybe what is needed to push the displacement caused by the impending SSW into a split. So, however complicated it looks, the picture above is a good indication that the atmospheric conditions are conspiring to heighten the risk of a destroyed vortex going into January.
  3. Well well well The GEM and GFS appear to have tasted something interesting...a much more amplified pattern, starting at the onset of low res and resulting in a scandi HLB. Eyes down to see where that sits within the ensembles and whether ECMWF latches onto a similar pattern.
  4. Will be gd to see EC ens tonight if someone could post them. By my conservative reckoning, 11/12 12z GEFS runs showing some kind of amplitude or blocking over n Atlantic/Scandinavia/Greenland by day 14. If trends could talk this one would say: cold potential. (Which, incidentally, as almost exactly what the metoffice say in their long ranger).
  5. It would also align with prior indications we discussed several days ago about Exeter favouring a sceuro high outcome. Lets see where the next few hours lead
  6. That is an exceptional mean and better still that it represents a December pattern. You couldn't draw it better - just East enough to avoid Westerly based NAO and just North enough to avoid settled weather in the UK.
  7. This is the best run I have ever seen I think. Sorry for the one liner.
  8. Superb post from Catacol as usual. Sticking with the 10 day Blocking theme: how about these charts for means? Slowly generating consensus for Greenland height rises. As both C and Tamara allude, given that the intervening easterly burst is unlikely to provide serious snowfall (early season, relatively benign uppers etc), this is really the key thing to nail down if we are to attain some “proper” winter weather out of this. Very encouraging though and certainly, irrespective of wintery outcomes, a period to analyse carefully when it comes to attaining HLBs in the future Edit: just to reinforce my point, the lack of snowfall I was referring to wasn’t intended to dampen the excitement - as I said, the setup is heading towards an incredibly favourable one for snowfall. But this chart for E/SE england shows that despite the E’ly and the PPN next week, the snow row remains 0. The E’ly helps facilitate the westward advection of the high though so it is all part of the puzzle...
  9. Just the 1040mb over Greenland, as a mean. that's a huge anomaly.
  10. Three things to say: 1. You're right, amazing chart. 2. Tamara is one of our most well respected and knowledgeable posters, so I don't think we should take the p**s 3. Usually with UK weather, if something can go wrong it will go wrong, so, I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say, no jinxing is allowed here. EVER. Edit: 4. Flaming heck, what a run. Stunning
  11. A short term improvement on GFS 12z. Stronger heights over Greenland thanks to a stronger low in the Atlantic. I'll ask mr blobby whether that is ultimately good or bad news #notaclue
  12. Was just going to post that. The ensembles are phenomenal - whether the Canadian lows join, undercut or advert up the western coast of Greenland, almost all find a way to Icelandic/Greenland Blocking with the vortex displaced to the other side of the pole. That is so rare it really can’t be stated enough. Here’s the mean at 240 to prove the point. Nothing guarantees, the pub run and all, but excellent signs again. At this stage we’re trend hunting in the North Atlantic area so this, on that basis, is as good as it gets... Edit: case in point, check out the control. I mean...the western half the vortex is literally missing. As Ian brown might say...wtf
  13. N Norfolk coast. First signs of a proper flatline. The party pooper in me says: if it were January the line would be -12 not -5 but the model watcher in me says, given the background signals, this could just be the start.
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