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ITSY

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  1. That patch of sub zero temps in the south midlands/home counties/EA reflects a cover of 10-15cms so no surprises there. Just one of many options at the moment but possible only if the wrap around is fast enough and the low initially SWly enough...
  2. I'm sorry but a +28 isotherm should never be due north of a -6 one. There is something very wrong with this chart. 😅
  3. Reloading pattern via sliders, a pattern we’ve become accustomed to in the last few days. Just a tad chilly!
  4. Holy moly! if anything like this or the prior GFS Op run comes off, it’ll be pandemonium. Let’s see where it sits in the GEFS and then await the 00Zs... just staggering charts really from GFS, you couldn’t draw them better edit: I mean, look at this. The mean flow in the northern hemisphere is the wrong way round for heaven sake!
  5. As far as the operationals go, it’s ECM/IKON/NAVGEM vs UKMO/GFS/FV3/JMA/GEM, Majority clusters so far only available for GEM and GEFS. For these it’s 60/40 in favour of cold for the GEM (albeit with milder clusters into low res) and 70/30 cold for GEFS. Let’s await the ENS next. We can and should be very excited if it’s cold you’re after - but with a dose of realism that it’s never a done deal on this island until we’re within T12, especially with Easterlies. Other options not to be discounted just yet...
  6. GFSP/FV3 ups the ante. A slider into -12 uppers, carnage. Edit: how rude of me, -15 uppers:
  7. Yup, almost as if something strong is buckling the jet stream and preventing mean Westerlies! Literally rinse and repeat:
  8. Just a dose of something sour to ensure we all don't get carried away into a narnia-induced coma. Zonal wind speeds in the Strat due to pick up and become mean westerly again by the last third of the month. As we know though, downwelling can take its time and the SPV will still be significantly weaker than normal, but worth noting for caution while we look at charts showing amazing anomalies for months on end... Indeed, on the plus side, drawn from Marco Petangna's very interesting and insightful twitter feed, is that the SPV is currently at its weakest state on record for this time of year - which probably explains the ridiculous duration looming HLBs. Pick that one out!
  9. Word of caution is that the op and control are both in the mildest 5 runs. Fv3 is running behind but just worth noting for those keen on reverse psychology
  10. In simple terms for newbies watching, it’s the blob of high pressure over Canada around this period that is of interest. It will exit the American seaboard at some point and, we hope, eventually advect northeastward towards or into the Greenland area. Could take 48hrs from exit or a week, if at all. Other bites will come but this represents the first one with a ready made arctic high to “lock in” a decent cold spell. Whether it goes anywhere is another question, but a good demonstration of what I’m talking about is here. We want the positive Canadian anomaly to gravitate westward initially towards the North Atlantic, with the resident low pressure ejecting itself south westward towards the UK. At this point the space is vacated for high pressure to amplify - see initial positive anomaly developing over Eastern Greenland.
  11. Feb can you provide a link? I have this missing from my evening bookmarks!
  12. Aye I would agree here. Painful getting to this point but the right pieces are in the right places at last. A clearly split TPV certainly helps
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