Mike the Fish

I think the South West and South, especially close to the coast are really unlucky with this, we are always just on the wrong side of marginal and whilst everyone else south of the M4 is knee deep in snow, our lamp post watching is very much a cold rain affair lol. Can make a person bitter over the years lol.

Agreed, I was talking more generally about models handling breakdowns, of course location, elevation are key, but my point being is once you have the cold air in situ, its the position and track of the low pressure that will decide if you get rain, sleet or snow or nothing at all and some models particularly gfs, tend to over do the deepness of pressure, altering its track. Many a night I have watched a channel low primed to strike, only to veer off into northern France leaving us with a snizzle shower lol

Keep the faith guys, seeing lots of negativity here. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models other than the hi res ones, forecasting snow is difficult even for the most experienced meteorologist and is more of a now cast situation, so many factors involved. Little features will pop up at short notice and will surprise many. Remember, the warnings are only a guide and i think will change over the next few days. Once the cold is established across the uk its often difficult to budge and in my opinion the models dont handle the breakdowns well. Yes, coastal fringes are always going to struggle slightly because of the sea. As many have said the track of the low pressure system is key here and but i would bet money the position currently progged by the models at the moment will not be where it ends up.

Experience tells me that we won't have a clearer picture until about 24 hours before the event and even then over the years i've seen shifts of up to 50-100 miles, at very short notice. Forecasting snow, accumulations and locations is extremely difficult even for the most experienced meteorologists. I certainly wouldn't pay any attention to those accumulation charts, they are about as much use as a chocolate teapot. Have a feeling us South/South Westerners may be pleasantly surprised next week. Keep your nerve peeps!

Hey guys Big yawn, coming out of hibernation for the upcoming cold spell, hope everyone is well. So, having been watching the models over the last week, my take is that there is still a big amount of uncertainty regarding depth of cold, longevity, amounts of precipitation and type. Yes, the South East, East Anglia and Central England are better positioned with regards to prolonged snow from the east. The majority in the South West will probably struggle to see much other than maybe a fleeting shower, however as we go through the week our chances increase from slider lows, but as many have said position is key, too far north and we get rain and too far south we get nothing, hit the sweet spot and we get plastered. Hold your nerve guys and keep the faith, our chance will come!!

Thanks Singing in the Snow, someone said it was raining in Poole!

Thanks Matty, looks promising I heard someone say it was raining?

I'm at work guys (No Windows), can someone let me know what's happening in Poole/Bournemouth please, nowcast and forecast?

Guys who told you that? I'm an Insurance Broker and that is complete rubbish.

Bless you Jay, that is not a whiteout my friend, I think you may see one tomorrow if the winds continue as forecast. I think you are in a good spot

I have a feeling you may well be surprised. In my experience, these low pressure systems are very hard to predict in terms of where they track, intensity, but based on past experience I would not be surprised if this ends up tracking further east and south meaning more of the SW are affected and remaining on the right side of the snow/rain possibilities. No technical data to back up my theory only life experience. I think how the low pressure interacts with the intense cold air is unpredictable and this could well be a now cast situation with met warnings popping up a short notice.

Don't give up just yet, still 3 days to go and the models are still struggling to get a handle on the low pressure in terms of track, intensity, how far north it gets. I don't think the models do particularly well in dealing with the intense cold air that will be in situ. I have seen it before where the low has be progged to track up to the midlands and not even made it out of France. Some of the models have already shown the low stalling. I think its track will be much more important. Keep the faith, lots more twists and turns to come me thinks!!

Keep the faith for Sunday guys, in my experience over the years these low pressure systems are unpredictable even up to 6 -12 hours out and more often than not tend to track further south than modelled. Now, i'm not saying we are going to be knee deep in snow, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this tracking further south than progged and some us snow starved southerners seeing the white stuff. Anyone else follow my thoughts?

Well good morning fellow southerners and south westerners. It looks like I've managed to drag my sorry rear end out of summer hibernation just in time to see the latest possibilities of snow for us snow starved southerners stand on a knife edge. Track south Mr Low Pressure god damn it lol. Hope everyone is well.

Famous last words lol.............. A week in weather forecasting is a life time. 48hrs is about as far as I trust and even then snowcasting can come down to looking out the window. That said, that setup would be much more favourable for our neck of the woods so fingers crossed. Hop on the roller coaster but beware its gonna be a bumpy ride. Snizzle lol, I had a very light dusting of snizzle on the car this morning, tiny little ice crystals.