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  1. Game over on the ECM! Not that I thought we were in an actual game but there you go!
  2. You post GEM and ICON charts though Steve, the GFS certainly performs better than those. Also the ECM isn’t exactly a winter wonderland. I get the positive angle you come from but realistically we need to get extremely lucky for everything to fall into place for anything in the next 2 weeks, you’d expect to see at least some ensemble support growing by now if it were likely.
  3. Cold being to the east and north isn’t exactly abnormal winter weather is it? There’s not a single ensemble member below -5 until deep FI, the ECM and ensembles are poor even at 240. Struggling to see anything to get excited about but there you go. Normal winter fayre for the UK right now and for the foreseeable unfortunately IMO
  4. The day 6 UKMO upsets me to look at, that damn piece of vortex over Canada and elongating troughing is the absolute killer for us on this chart, aside from that you’d say this chart actually has a bit of interest. Shame.
  5. Poor outlook from the GFS, particularly when you look at the vortex and it’s not even very organised yet. Shows you just how many hurdles there is in the way of us getting any meaningful nationwide cold spells, so many pieces have to be just right.
  6. Vortex in pieces, a piece still remains in a rubbish position to remain spitting lows across the Atlantic.
  7. One thing that doesn’t change is that piece of energy Canada that will keep spewing energy towards us. It’s a messy outlook really.
  8. What a vile output for those of us in the south, the absolute worst kind of weather bitter cold feeling but deluges of rain. Seems we always manage to pull the worst possible result from any multitude of outcomes. At least pressure is trending upwards out in FI, that’s the only straw to clutch, hopefully some dry weather at least. Good for Scottish ski resorts I suppose and some transient snow in parts of the north. Moderators on here make me laugh, they just pick and choose which posts should be moved at absolute random, this post is moved but a post saying ‘look at the models next week it’s going to snow’ is left, remarkable.
  9. Differences at 168, pacific side of us quite a drastic one actually
  10. Shows just how much the models got it wrong in the key areas, Iberian heights and low pressure much stronger around Greenland. ECM much the same, yes it was 8 days out but a poor effort from the main models IMO
  11. Looks like the OP represents the biggest clusters quite well to be fair especially at such long range.
  12. Sounds like a big downgrade from yesterday to me. The downgrade since yesterday’s 12z are there for all to see, it’s an absolutely stark difference. 12z yesterday at day 8, 12z today now at day 7. Poor. To pretend anything else is simply bogus.
  13. Poor from the Icon, but I would guess day 8-10 might be good would depend on that energy to the west whether it wants to flatten the pattern or not.
  14. You realise this is a cold rain chart? Aside from high ground in the north. Oh and the GFS always overplays the cold coming from the NW it’s almost always modified more. To me given the way the Azores high is displaced out west I’m going to be very disappointed if we can’t at least get a half decent ridge up into Greenland at some point, as usual the energy around the eastern seaboard just will not play ball.
  15. Its a 24/36 hour transient period for favoured areas, IMO that’s pretty normal winter for the UK. Nothing sustained or cold enough for a snowy spell at low levels across most of the UK at this point, subject to change of course.
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