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  1. There’s still too much risidual is energy around Greenland, day 10 a coupe of days ago was showing a real waning of the energy in that area but now it’s still reigning supreme. This is a model discussion thread, so anyone being ‘negative’ is just reacting to what the models are showing right now, METO outlooks are all well and good but the models aren’t showing that at present and this is model output discussion. Patience required of course, as usual with these isles, the MET are very rarely as bullish as they have been BUT this is no guarantee, so on model output alone you can understand the doom and gloom.
  2. Weathizard

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    Calm down everyone, did you not know they let Steve murr write today’s update
  3. I’ll be taking P1 please sir. Ensembles are a real mixed bag to be honest, difficult to take any guidance at all at day 10, there’s a real lack of colder uppers floating about mind you.
  4. Something to keep an eye on... probably get flattened in GFS Fi though
  5. Agreed, I’m as sceptical as you but if there’s no hope then why are we all here? Got to find something to generate a modicum of interest
  6. Day 10 ECM, not without interest with a possible ridge building our west and heights building to the NE also. I think we need to extends our hopes past the day 10 period, which of course many already have. Dangerous game though, seen many winters washed away with the zonal train but I think this winter is different, I don’t see the zonal train lasting too long the vortex is in tatters already.
  7. Disgusting ECM, low after low spawning out of the remnants of vortex left across the Atlantic. Would love to have had some dry weather if we aren’t going to get snow, im refraining from throwing my toys out the pram about that though as every year Christmas seems to be dross weather.
  8. Respect Steve, but feel like the majority on here really aren’t interested in a bit of snow that either doesn’t lay or thaws within hours of falling. Perhaps I’m on my own here but I prefer no snow than snow not laying/thawing rapidly. I could be wrong though
  9. Think people need to give up on the currently easterly saga, the Atlantic is too powerful and is coming through sharpish. Mid term there is interest, although the Atlantic is very strong at the moment the over all hemispheric pattern is still looking good for us for more chances.
  10. GFS still consistent and insistent on bringing SW winds, I would go with the UKM and ECM in this situation as the GFS has a known Atlantic bias comparably to the others. Not a done deal by any means though.
  11. GEFS having none of it, a pretty hideous set of ensembles within a decent timeframe it must be said, although I would also say if the main GFS run is wrong then what chance do the ensembles have? Answers on a postcard please.
  12. Indeed, could be a real worry for some areas. The ground around here is saturated at the moment and with more rain forecast and these storms possibly to come we could have bigger concerns than a bit of snow!
  13. More trough disruption than the UKM but I’m afraid this definitely looks like a move towards the dreaded UKMO solution