No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posts posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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i think Oxfordshire will do well out of this. More snow Sunday night into Monday too?
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I have a good feeling I will get a good dumping of snow where I live :-)
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Currently a very chilly feeling 2.8c bbbrrrrrrr. Low of -5.7c overnight.
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blast my cover is blown! apologies for getting that storm forecast wrong back in the 80's!
Mr Fish you look like a 80's porn star
Best chance of seeing snow will be the further North and East you are in the region.
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Amazing outlook and I have admit to being surprised at the 16-30 day forecast.
Below average temps and above average rainfall in winter for S Brtitain can only mean one thing and that is N blocking with S,ly tracking LP systems. I very much doubt it refers to only convective E,lys because it would state precip above average only in extreme SE parts and even then I doubt rainfall would be above average.
I should have more faith in the Met O really because I remember back in Dec 2009 the very cold, snowy outlook was predicted even when it wasn't obvious in the model output.
Of course we should have more faith in them, they are the pros after all, and 99% of the time they are right.
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Hmm doesn't look too shabby does it?!
I am more than happy with that.
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Light snow flurry at Heathrow Airport :-)
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The SE looks like the best place to be next week as deep cold in nearby Europe touches us from time to time.
It's good to be touched by a cold European every now and then
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Some ice days and severe frosts would do me at this minute, snow cannot be rushed. :-)
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How to confuse people, me, in one easy step, will get back to the rain and mildness then! What a tease!
LOL well probably within the next couple of weeks the daily mail will use the same headline
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I did think that but saw the time coast posted it, just searched internet and daily express going for an arctic blast from Thursday?! -4c in London?........
I think the one coast posted is a headline from last december's snow.
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What paper was that headline from?
Looks like the evening standard to me
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UK Outlook for Sunday 29 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 7 Feb 2012:
Southeastern parts of the UK are likely to be largely dry on Sunday and into the start of next week, with clear and sunny spells, and a risk of overnight frost and fog. There is a risk of wintry showers developing near the North Sea and English Channel coasts. Northwestern areas are likely to be cloudier and windier with rain at times and perhaps some hill snow. Temperatures are likely to be average, locally mild in the northwest but colder in the southeast. The weather looks likely to become more settled during next week, although there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, with an almost equal probability of the unsettled conditions spreading back across the UK, or much colder conditions developing nationwide, with snow in places and widespread frosts.
Updated: 1148 on Tue 24 Jan 2012
Looks to me as thought the 6-15 dayer is siding with the easterly with the mentioning of wintry showers in the North sea an Englis Channel coasts.
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This is definately someone i'd like to put in my cupboard for use accordingly
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Thats him, what happened to Rob Mcelwee? does anybody know? probably put in a cupboard with all the others? have a challenge since 1980 name all the BBC Forecasters???
According to his wiki page he was moved to backroom forecasting duties as part of a cost cutting drive.
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That man is a legend !
Yeah proper legend, he could ramp with the best of them
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I did say earlier there is always a forecaster who always says something
forgotten who was one of the BBC forecasters who was taken off recently who loved the cold and snow that the BBC didnt like?? Must be fun in the Met Office at the moment, probably damned if we dont, damned if we do!! Rob McElwee?
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Note yesterday they said the milder option was slightly more likely. However today they suggest an equal opportunity!
Well they would be sued by the pc brigade otherwise for showing favouritism
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Just seen the ensembles and blimey is the first word that comes to mind. When I mentioned the uncertainity last night in the 18Z ensembles I have to be honest I thought I might be straw clutching. Now i've finally looked at the 06Z ensembles and the answer is no I wasn't.
What some of the ensembles do is similiar to the OP with the trough moving SE. However quiet a few other members keep this to the W and then we see trough disruption with the energy going SE and at the same time pressure building over Scandi.
The upper temp mean has taken quiet a drop around the 25th and thats a full 5C colder than the ensembles were suggesting yesterday.
And they could well be 5c warmer by the end of the 12z such is the chaos in the models at the moment. I am just being pessamistic hopefully lol. Probably the best thing to do is to take the mean of the mean ensembles over the course of a week lol.
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Such big differences on the 06z compared to the 00z at T96, yes T96!!!, 06z has us in much colder air for Monday than the 00z, if it can't get it right at T96 there is no hope in hell at getting it right for early Feb
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I'd be dubious of the output past 96hrs as the UKMO and GFS disagree, at 120hrs the UKMO promises much but doesn't deliver at 144hrs but I think we need to be looking to the ne.
That low is a nuisance to the west especially as the UKMO 120hrs could develop so much better with just a little trough disruption.
But surely the Russian high is not going to influence us while there is a big fat low in Scandinavia is it?, surely our cold prospects are more likely to come from this trough?
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IMO the UKMO T120 NH chart looks great for cold prospects
But then the ridge gets battered out of the way at T144, still that monster low at T144 looks like it could move SE to me if it were to verify, big big big if past T120
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IMO the GFS 06Z looks good up until T120. Heights are increasing with each run over Greenland, and generally each run is becoming colder. The low over Scandi at T120 seems to be heading more East, It would not take much from T120 onwards to give us a N/Easterly. As GP said yesterday expect the unexpected, and IMO don't look beyond T120.
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According to the 18z GFS early next week T120 to T168 (I dare not look any further, and anything past T120 is pushing it) looks very unsettled. It would feel very chilly in the wind almost winter like again lol. Still good heights over greenland. If only the lows would start moving SE we would be in business. Plenty of cold pooling over Northern Scandanavia on this run waiting to come our way hopefully.
forgotten who was one of the BBC forecasters who was taken off recently who loved the cold and snow that the BBC didnt like?? Must be fun in the Met Office at the moment, probably damned if we dont, damned if we do!! 
Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
Still plenty of time for change, I just have that feeling we will stay as snow throughout and the milder air wont get that far East. fingers crossed.