[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

This might get a few backs up, but it's not meant to and it is just my opinion, but I find the use of the De Bilt ensembles useless for predicting cold for the UK.

I have seen time and time again over the years the really cold air stopping at the start of the English Channel, and it can be below freezing in De Bilt, while it is can be +5c in the SE/East of the UK.  All the De Bilt ensembles tell me is that more than likely Northern Mainland Europe will be very cold, whilst in reality, the UK 8/9 times out of 10 is much warmer. 

I welcome comments on what value they can add when looking for UK specific cold.

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

You keep digging these maps out.  Looks like the week of the 21st   is were the fun lies   keep them coming 

They were also posted by a senior operational METO man on twitter. I guess they can post freely some ECM stuff sometimes!!

 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

This be Good 

 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Oh dear, Just as the models start to throw out BOOM runs. Think it might be a good idea to stop looking at the METO updates and focus on the models instead. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

SSW well under way, along with the lesser known atmospheric goings on including the OMG, OMFG, LOL,  and the FWIW all calminating in WTF moments. 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

If anyone is wondering what the Glosea machine looks like, here it is.

 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Glosea has churned out 2 weeks of below freezing daytime temperatures plus heavy snow every day. The forecaster is wondering whether Glosea has broken or is actually telling the truth. 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Summer sun doesn't want to post it as it shows cold and snow

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

8 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

..think you'e going to like the 06z GEFS !

Whilst the fixation with 10 hPa layer is understandable, analysis of 50 hPa layer proving to be most useful at this stage, particularly regarding ridge development.

Your not wrong GP.

Peturb 3 for example. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

It’s the same as yesterday. Wait for tomorrow’s as that is when the Ec46 updates.

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

I cannot believe that the word dreadful has been used to describe the latest update. The mention of Easterly winds and wintry weather is dreadful!, Really, I mean wtf, with all due respect.

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Oh lord, it's all kicking off. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

I wonder if this will be the "holding pattern" until the big push North in early Jan

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

17 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Where is Mr Murr ??? 

Hold on I’ve found him . 

He’s cutting and levelling the grass ready for the dumpings of snow in Jan ?

Thank god the "Murr sausage" is covered up 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

I think it might just be acceptable to start getting a wee bit excited. Even more so after GFS 06Z this morning.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

It just SCREAMS POTENTIAL and ALL THE BUILDING BLOCKS ARE IN PLACE but we might NEED ANOTHER BITE OF THE CHERRY because it is SQUEAKY BUM TIME for the MARGINAL UPPERS. Did I use enough NW cliches there?

Need more runs

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Ties with ECM monthly update. My favourite whether type after cold and snow is wet and windy, so all is not lost for me personally LOL. 

 

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Whilst the most of us wait for cold, at least the weather doesn't look boring, with frequent bouts of wind and rain crossing the country for the next week or so. Luvvly Jubbly.

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Is this even possible!!

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Love this time of year on the forum. The mod Thread really starts to get going again with all the craziness that I love so much. Looking forward to the many many laughs at the toy throwing incidents. 

The models are looking good for something cold at the end of the month. Cannot come soon enough, Hate this mild muck this time of year. 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018]