aien aristeuein

snowflakes in a wintry mix hitchin herts 90asl

Here in Hitchin, we always seem to take a long time for misty clag to clear. Finally did so around 11.00am. Must be a local climate feature of this area. Anyhow, the day now looks set fair.

conditions deteriorating here in Hitchin beginning to stick on main roads in last half hour

light snow in hitchin herts since 9.40 wasn't expecting anything but drizzle this morning upper air temps seem pretty cold mind you

Yes but if you went back just 24 hours on the 06gfs to 120 hrs I am not sure you could call it. From my untrained eye I would have said the situation from Tuesday to Friday is finely balanced and we could succomb to either continuing cold or a change to less cold and wet conditions. Who knows I think is the answer and that makes it all the more exciting for a newcomer - models are great but not the be all. AA

A question from a new forum members to a respected and often read old timer the precipitation on Thursday into Friday modelled on the GFS is coinciding with temperatures close to zero down the east of england. Is this clearly a wet weather event or perhaps a surprise snow event. I am unsure of what the predicted dewpoints are? As a three counties person I am intrigued at the modelling of the period Saturday into Sunday because at the moment is says very snowy. AA

If the GFS 6h verifies then sunday morning could be very snowy, the friday event looks plain wet and cold

Just wanted to add having seen the ECM output now Seems as though as much as there was stunning agreement from the GFS, UKMO and ECM las night on the freeze to end all freezes, this morning the is stunning agreement in the critical 120 to 180 timeframe from the same models to be very circumspect on cold from the east. Looks as though we will have to sit and see how things develop. I saw SM's overnight post which highlighted some difficulties out of the US in modelling the outcomes on our side of the pond. AA

I am new at this game so please put up with my novice talk. Well based on this mornings output prior to the ECM being posted I sense we may be in for a morning of nail biting as the GFS at 126 to 180 could go either way albeit it freezes the proverbials in la-la land. The UKMO is also set to raise the tension levels at 120 to 140. One reason I joined the forum was situations like the one ahead of us are so truely fascinating. Perhaps it will lead to epic cold, perhaps not but certainly makes for an exciting ride. AA

Thanks mrsf16 Lovely place Hitchin - but I would be biased!! On the weather out to the weekend, this mornings GFS seems to suggest rain thursday to friday, no doubt we will have wait and see what falls out of the sky. After that well you wouldn,t want to call it this morning. Looks it could go bitter cold or settled and not too cold depending on what the outcome in the 120 to 140 time frame is.

What I find fascinating is that only 48 hours ago we were talking about a NNw/N outbreak which effectively just flirted with the east of the UK for one or two days to something far more wintry and potentially long lasting. I would have thought if there is any substance to the growing cold threat that METO warnings would be posted by now

well the chatter tonight has got me off my backside and join the forum as a new member after a year of watching from the sidelines. hope I can make a useful contribution both with the imminent return of real cold and in the longer term. short term I am very curious to see how Thursday / Friday will pan out in terms of precipitation type and how much. after that the models seem to be pointing towards something verging on severe wintriness from the north, then north east then east. Aien, hitchin herts

just to introduce myself Based in Hitchin, Herts, I thought I would join the forum with potentially interesting weather developing over the next few days. It would be good to see three significant cold spells this winter, not that it has really ever warmed up since mid december. I hope I can be a useful contributor Aien