[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now was probably the most exciting weather we've had all winter - a 5 min hailstorm

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Thought we may have a decent cold  and snowy spell mid month onwards but please not a northerly - anything but that for down here.

Roll on spring

[Model banter and emotions]

On 31/1/24 we had this for next week

and today

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 raz.org.rain  it's later in Feb where the interest lies

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Shame, as rain b4 colder weather arrives and dry after in the south but early days yet

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Second half of Feb looks quite promising for some snow down here - far better than that over hyped non event in Jan 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Something of interest at last - one to keep an eye on

[Moans, ramps and banter]

14 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

Yes, remove the bins and booms, it does nothing for anyone and is just misleading, especially on numerous occasions where the very next post goes against what has just been said. 

It happens all the time, I might not post often but I've been reading for years. Again I'm not asking for an exact date, but I've seen numerous times where the original date given is just ignored when it has been pushed back like no one had even said anything. It's happened on this occasion when it was realised that the 7th of January was just UK high and the date moved to the 15 and it was always the 15th when the fun began. 

I won't change your mind, but am I not allowed to speak out? It's not like I'm naming anyone, making it personal.

Not sure why ‘misleading’ is a problem - it’s a forum not a forecasting site tho must admit years ago I did have the habit of telling friends etc that snow was on the way based on model observations and upbeat comments in the mod thread - luckily I learnt my lesson and keep quiet these days until 48 hrs ish !

[Moans, ramps and banter]

26 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Looks dry and cold for 5/6 days, how disappointing, the low to the south stays over France and no fun and games. What’s the point of extending the cold spell  but having no snow?  2 more Frosts before it warms up.  I’d rather it was mild throughout at least I won’t freeze my nuts off at work 

Yep bit like looking forward to seeing  a double act and only one shows up 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

42 minutes ago, saintkip said:

BBC next week for the big event 

always 2/3 degrees higher than  other forecasts 

I'd be more worried if it was forecasting heavy snow that far out - usually ends badly.  The bar is set low now so expect the worse and hope for better - you never know in this volatile set up

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 hour ago, snowblind said:

I'm not an expert but it would be a combination of 850s, dew points, wet bulb temperature, surface temperature and probably some other things. You would struggle to get snow falling with 850 temp above 0 but at or just below is possible usually with fronts moving into cold dense lower level air. The classic example would be fronts approaching from the south west with a south easterly wind ahead drawing cold air from the continent, assuming there is a cold enough supply of air there.

In the situation where you have 850s above zero but surface temperatures are at or below freezing you'd most likely get freezing rain where the rain freezes on contact with the still frozen ground.

But like I say there are lots of factors involved and it's not easy to work out. I'm sure there is a detailed explanation on here somewhere that explains the factors required for snow to fall.

Thanks for the explanation so probably why its so tricky to forecast (for next week) with a front moving in from the SW where it could snow even allowing for highish 850's

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Have a question around the 850 temps re the possible snow event next week. Checking the EC op for down here in Hants the 850's rise to +5 for a short period and this coincides with the forecast snowfall - the ground temp remains around freezing at the same time. Just wondering whether the 850's are the best indicator for these type of scenarios

[Moans, ramps and banter]

30 minutes ago, Buzz said:

It is possible, you just put 99% of the posters on ignore - all I mostly see now are posts from people who know what they are talking about and who post good, analytical content with no hype or hysteria (which is the way that the thread should be). I think I may have the largest ignore list on this forum ........

Yep - do use that but obviously not enough tho the problem is generally when an FI GFS precipitation chart appears showing a foot of snow for some part of the country only

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Imbyism is rife in the MOD thread - impossible now to get a quick overview of latest runs so having to do it the long way now ! 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

8 minutes ago, Notty said:

Long range upgrade

 

Actually that's probably the best long term update for quite a few years - for down here anyway

[Moans, ramps and banter]

10 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Come on, peeps, it's only the weather; and a couple of less-than-perfect model runs: 

Will be carnage when UKMO/ ECM starts backtracking

[Moans, ramps and banter]

32 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I don’t understand the technicalities to make an informed post on MOD thread but this I do know, until it’s down to T12/18 I don’t get excited and even then it can go toots up! I don’t get caught up in the hype anymore. Been led up that garden path far too often..

Yes seen it many times - usually the wobble starts with one model and gains traction with the others over the coming days. Still if it’s cool and dry rather than cold and dry then I’d be happy with that 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Odd - Looks like the OP decided it's had enough of the cold weather and fancied a short break

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

forthcoming weather way over hyped in the mod thread and with barely a snowflake incoming

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Welcome to the 1st working day of 2024.  Can't wait for the dog walk later in horizontal rain,  fields resembling the Somme and a muddy dog

One crumb is that after today it does look drier

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

44 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Whilst it looks like we are moving to a colder weather pattern, and MIGHT even see some January snow (something of a rarity, these days) the hysteria in the MAD thread seems somewhat over the top. But, hey, the weather will do what the weather will do. . . 

Yes - have seen it many times over may years. Admittedly EC looks pretty for cold lovers but it's 7+days away and guarantee toys will be thrown tomorrow when the backtrack starts

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

So as expected just a dry, coolish outlook for now - boring but welcome

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

The golden rule of commenting on model runs - below is a 'trend setter', if op was at top of the pack its 'for the bin'

 

 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Can see nothing much of interest in the models currently for down here in the semi reliable  - a chilly daytime max of around 4c and dry for period 7th - 14th Jan. Hopefully late Jan may bring something less dull

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Until i see some -10 850's appearing i have zero interest though we do have one ECM member hitting this for London on the 29th - the chase is on