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cobbett

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Everything posted by cobbett

  1. cobbett
    Just now was probably the most exciting weather we've had all winter - a 5 min hailstorm
  2. cobbett
    Thought we may have a decent cold and snowy spell mid month onwards but please not a northerly - anything but that for down here. Roll on spring
  3. cobbett
    On 31/1/24 we had this for next week and today
  4. cobbett
    raz.org.rain it's later in Feb where the interest lies
  5. cobbett
    Shame, as rain b4 colder weather arrives and dry after in the south but early days yet
  6. cobbett
    Second half of Feb looks quite promising for some snow down here - far better than that over hyped non event in Jan
  7. cobbett
    Something of interest at last - one to keep an eye on
  8. cobbett
    Not sure why ‘misleading’ is a problem - it’s a forum not a forecasting site tho must admit years ago I did have the habit of telling friends etc that snow was on the way based on model observations and upbeat comments in the mod thread - luckily I learnt my lesson and keep quiet these days until 48 hrs ish !
  9. cobbett
    Yep bit like looking forward to seeing a double act and only one shows up
  10. cobbett
    I'd be more worried if it was forecasting heavy snow that far out - usually ends badly. The bar is set low now so expect the worse and hope for better - you never know in this volatile set up
  11. cobbett
    Thanks for the explanation so probably why its so tricky to forecast (for next week) with a front moving in from the SW where it could snow even allowing for highish 850's
  12. cobbett
    Have a question around the 850 temps re the possible snow event next week. Checking the EC op for down here in Hants the 850's rise to +5 for a short period and this coincides with the forecast snowfall - the ground temp remains around freezing at the same time. Just wondering whether the 850's are the best indicator for these type of scenarios
  13. cobbett
    Yep - do use that but obviously not enough tho the problem is generally when an FI GFS precipitation chart appears showing a foot of snow for some part of the country only
  14. cobbett
    Imbyism is rife in the MOD thread - impossible now to get a quick overview of latest runs so having to do it the long way now !
  15. cobbett
    Actually that's probably the best long term update for quite a few years - for down here anyway
  16. cobbett
    Will be carnage when UKMO/ ECM starts backtracking
  17. cobbett
    Yes seen it many times - usually the wobble starts with one model and gains traction with the others over the coming days. Still if it’s cool and dry rather than cold and dry then I’d be happy with that
  18. cobbett
    Odd - Looks like the OP decided it's had enough of the cold weather and fancied a short break
  19. cobbett
    forthcoming weather way over hyped in the mod thread and with barely a snowflake incoming
  20. cobbett
    Welcome to the 1st working day of 2024. Can't wait for the dog walk later in horizontal rain, fields resembling the Somme and a muddy dog One crumb is that after today it does look drier
  21. cobbett
    Yes - have seen it many times over may years. Admittedly EC looks pretty for cold lovers but it's 7+days away and guarantee toys will be thrown tomorrow when the backtrack starts
  22. cobbett
    So as expected just a dry, coolish outlook for now - boring but welcome
  23. cobbett
    The golden rule of commenting on model runs - below is a 'trend setter', if op was at top of the pack its 'for the bin'
  24. cobbett
    Can see nothing much of interest in the models currently for down here in the semi reliable - a chilly daytime max of around 4c and dry for period 7th - 14th Jan. Hopefully late Jan may bring something less dull
  25. cobbett
    Until i see some -10 850's appearing i have zero interest though we do have one ECM member hitting this for London on the 29th - the chase is on
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