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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch good had enough of this dreadful wet winter -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nice to see most of the models giving us a glimmer of hope before the end of this winter, but we have been here quite a few times this winter for it all to either water down or completely disappear, let’s hope it actually happens but let’s be honest we are talking 10 days away as usual so I wouldn’t get any hopes up -
You know the first thing we are all going to do when we open them eyes is think is it white or wet? Open the curtains to be treated to….. that horrible walk with the kids to school, wet paths and cold sleety rain slapping us in the face. bring on the warm summer and a good old humdinger of a storm that’s what I say
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Whilst it’s starting to look like large areas of the midlands could be in with a shout it’s still Tuesday and so that’s plenty of time for change when it involves snow. Is this time tomorrow it’s looking similar then yes there’s a decent chance but even then Iv seen it all go pear shaped. Yes it’s exciting but we really need to remember how things go wrong when snow is involved
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quite often you see let’s say a slider coming in only for it to all of a sudden become a big round thing going north and then few days later the models then latch back onto the slider solution. I’m not saying that’s going to happen but I really wouldn’t be surprised. no model has won or lost and they never will, they are purely computers giving a prediction of which in the end they will pretty much meet in the middle give or take a little. lets see what the morning brings but I can pretty much say confidently that this low is not handled correctly just yet -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Although a different set up to the January one where a disruptive band was supposed to cross central areas and ended up in France where we just got the cold dry rubbish. I can’t see the same thing happening here but it’s still a concern after this strange winter we have had so far. id take a snow day even if it turns milder after as I’m sure many in here would too. lets see how this plays out over the next day or 2 -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
sheikhy how can you say ecm will not be correct? It’s days away, there will be plenty more twists. Nothing at this stage is correct for later in the week -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Personally I’d be happy with a good dump even if it was gone the next day, just getting snow around here seems impossible these days. Can’t handle another dry cold spell. things certainly starting to look interesting again at last but as we all know it could all be gone come tomorrow so let’s not get carried away just yet -
Driving through redditch an hour ago and a massive tree has fallen down in front of oncoming cars on a duel carriageway causing chaos, just hope nobody was injured, was stuck awhile and then managed to go over the central reservation and on my way
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