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Everything posted by ZONE 51

  1. More flood risk today for SW and areas of Scotland, keep check of the forecasts.

  2. Forecast for next week |||_----||||----||||----|||---||_|---_|-||---|-------------_||-|||-------|-----------_|--|--_|_-_ Thats the dna of next weeks weather
  3. Becoming more likely to occur unfortunately and that these occurrences like what happened on Friday could happen again and especially next week, as blocking to the east and slow down of the weather pattern continues to affect, the fronts/troughs though have a chance of weakening to as they get here.
  4. Probably SM... but Fergie I think could have the record. Heres an example image I took other day of a post with high votes that add up the points quickly.. SM:
  5. I think JH has a fair point, and after all he did highlight the word POTENTIAL with big letters, which is very much what it is... CFS continues to indicate some efforts towards a pattern change in February but very much biting the nails with it..
  6. CFS looking interesting, quite frustrating seeing what could be but isn't, not yet anyway... going to post a few what I call "best of the CFS" occasionally on here (for cold fans) The cold all Bottled up situation: this is @ +720 I know further than the GFS FI but if you don't look you won't know what could happen later... .................................I'm lookin through begging to find a better cold chart to cheer you all up +816... nope that's the wrong direction... +840..looks good but would look better over this way more.. +1008.. ermmmmm Not this times ppl but
  7. Further heavy rainfall through today, heaviest looking likely to continue to affect the SW and Wales. Really am wondering when are get to make a forecast for some proper low level snow!

  8. Saturday 18 January (today) Latest radar: There is heavy rain now continuing to affect the SW and Wales with some very heavy downpours mixed in. Rain is now heading up from the s/sw towards the SE arriving in a few hours I expect, some heavy. A shower/streamer has formed over the Irish Sea, this could affect the Isle of Man and the east side of Northern Ireland soon. Todays rain: Heavy rain is likely to intensify over the SW and Wales through today with 30-50mm possible although 25-35mm more likely, flooding becoming a problem and expected disruption could be quite severe with the flo
  9. Have seen many pics of the floods on the Internet from the Surrey areas from Friday flooding, the Cobham area has now flood warnings by the EA, that's where I was stranded on the 24th! all the water coming down from the swollen rivers through Gatwick and leatherhead areas, the Mole runs from those areas towards Cobham and Hersham, the next in line down stream gets this water soon.... the rivers respond so fast in these conditions and rise very quickly. (also noticed a photo of Cob river Friday very very orangey brown and muddy, not seen this in previous pics, possibly a lot of banks are erod
  10. Friday 17 January (Today) Recent radar images show heavy showers with some very heavy downpours over southern and western England and south Wales, some of these also clipping the north Wales coast, heavy showers over the eastern side of Northern Ireland, some also affecting the Isle of man too. Some Heavy rain could affect eastern parts of Scotland and also Shetland today. For the rest of tonight and through Friday continuing with much the same conditions and affecting the same areas as mentioned above. Can't rule out heavy showers in other places but the areas mentioned is where I
  11. Yeah but a trough say predicted for 1300hrs is more likely to turn up than a bus at a shown time on the table.....
  12. Likely to be there until at least March.. plenty of opportunities for the very cold. Potentially CFS is on to something for a very cold spell early Feb from the northeast (well the one I use anyway indicates this!) but unfortunately could keep the drift of wet weather as it is now, but with the quite boring type of cold too!! even could end up quite settled cold/dry damp/fog with a high in wrong place for real cold.
  13. See on the 72 HR FAX the front just of the east coast/north sea, this front being blocked and sitting there, got a screen grab of this from the other way of looking at the surface pressures and fronts, don't see this type of front that often: This is what I'm talking about on the image above: Should post this link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/symbols#pressure
  14. Heavy downpours on and off here (more so than what hit during afternoon) could see some heavy rain more prolonged tomorrow which would enhance the flood problems. Also watching the Sat risk looks as though the worst rain over central south into southwest at this stage-where this occurs well over an inch (25mm+)
  15. The iceberg keeps tryin to get in but keeps getting melted by the blowtorch. The Scandi high is in development, although it is quite possible to remain in this pattern of mild/wet Atlantic flows but with few cold periods thrown in, am seeing signs of a slow change, more and more occluded fronts, less wind, a slow down, changes to the jetstream.. I would expect that once developments to the n/e take hold and move in then there stick for a few weeks I expect...(very cold)
  16. Today heavy rain showers for many some prolonged downpours perhaps hail and lightning n thunder.. this pretty much the set-up overnight and into Friday. Flood risk once again increasing. Further rain fall at the weekend and even a watch for Mon the SE more rain (hints of a change to more wintry weather on the way though! even this wkend)

  17. Bb, certainly looking like so, expecting some heavy rain showers some downpours sweeping through the region..some thundery I think, hard to say exactly who gets what where but unstable air into the SW heading this way going by GFS!
  18. What model was showing 2 months of Atlantic storms the odd snow flake and a great flood??
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