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ZONE 51

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Everything posted by ZONE 51

  1. ZONE 51
    Likely to be there until at least March.. plenty of opportunities for the very cold. Potentially CFS is on to something for a very cold spell early Feb from the northeast (well the one I use anyway indicates this!) but unfortunately could keep the drift of wet weather as it is now, but with the quite boring type of cold too!! even could end up quite settled cold/dry damp/fog with a high in wrong place for real cold.
  2. ZONE 51
  3. ZONE 51
    See on the 72 HR FAX the front just of the east coast/north sea, this front being blocked and sitting there, got a screen grab of this from the other way of looking at the surface pressures and fronts, don't see this type of front that often: This is what I'm talking about on the image above: Should post this link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/symbols#pressure
  4. ZONE 51
    More worried about the toxic pollution
  5. ZONE 51
    WOW!!! thanks Jason amazing pics on there! (see link posted above)
  6. ZONE 51
    Heavy downpours on and off here (more so than what hit during afternoon) could see some heavy rain more prolonged tomorrow which would enhance the flood problems. Also watching the Sat risk looks as though the worst rain over central south into southwest at this stage-where this occurs well over an inch (25mm+)
  7. ZONE 51
    Fire smoke seen from space: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-25767218
  8. ZONE 51
    The iceberg keeps tryin to get in but keeps getting melted by the blowtorch. The Scandi high is in development, although it is quite possible to remain in this pattern of mild/wet Atlantic flows but with few cold periods thrown in, am seeing signs of a slow change, more and more occluded fronts, less wind, a slow down, changes to the jetstream.. I would expect that once developments to the n/e take hold and move in then there stick for a few weeks I expect...(very cold)
  9. ZONE 51
    Bb, certainly looking like so, expecting some heavy rain showers some downpours sweeping through the region..some thundery I think, hard to say exactly who gets what where but unstable air into the SW heading this way going by GFS!
  10. ZONE 51
    What model was showing 2 months of Atlantic storms the odd snow flake and a great flood??
  11. ZONE 51
    Have done an alert rain map for Thursday (today) Heavy downpours at times some may be thundery, the heavy rain over eastern England should move away later then moving up into eastern Scotland (have highlighted the heavy rain now affecting the Humber area) Other areas heavy downpours some lines of these coming through, have highlighted the yellow as areas most at risk of the worst downpours to day and flooding risk. Northern Ireland have highlighted the high risk of prolonged rain 'rain chain' these heavy rainfalls of continued showers affecting here into Friday piling into the same areas mostly the eastern side, so quite a risk of flooding here. In the conditions of floods I use my yellow tone for 12mm+ and orange for 20-30mm or more.
  12. ZONE 51
    Some heavy showers now heading into the region (looking at latest radar) Edit.. have now arrived here
  13. ZONE 51
    Looking though CFS could not say less than a good chance of cold and wintry February, many Polar and Arctic blasts being indicated by the model, also one or two Siberian beasts. I would imagine so close to the month now that the model is very much on to something...
  14. ZONE 51
    CFS - 1 Feb Something to keep lookin out for on the GFS!
  15. ZONE 51
    Can get a bit techy in there SB, another language at times especially when the cold lets people down that want it! MUDDLED? new language. "if you want to learn the language called muddled please visit....
  16. ZONE 51
    John heres the GFS for the 20 Jan: Note the blue blob of ppn over the SE corner here ^^ still low pressure but wide isobars as per the light wind flow on the esembles you just posted.
  17. ZONE 51
    Not bothered not doing anything wrong but it's just the point isn't it, of not feeling that you are being spied on left right and center... Another thing different subject how long until pavement tax! or £1 per km to use the side walk!
  18. ZONE 51
    Now they sold me a computer with a chip in it that knows what I'm doing OFFLINE as well as online... well knew it would get to this point...errr just that they done it for years...(apparently) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25743074
  19. ZONE 51
    Just read what weather said. So going to post some charts up for readers on this. some charts here compare for Thursday and today (so you can see the bigger difference in upper temperatures to today) NAE chart 1=Height 500hpa 2=Height 850hpa 1- 2- Troughs showery but thundery and can see the unstable airflow on the GFS LI here: This is early but moves north and east.
  20. ZONE 51
    Exactly my thoughts. Expecting a return to the thundery summers of the 90s. My theory(I had said this 1-2 years ago) is that increase in snowfall especially the southeast during winter+very cold, decrease in thundery plumes from south, a connection is there I think. (look at the 90s with mild winters and thundery summers (winters more out of the 10 were mild than cold)) This winter and summer might just confirm my thoughts (not good for snow fans) Affected mainly the north we didn't have to many of those bad summers here, especially 2010
  21. ZONE 51
    Could this one be closed Thank you!
  22. ZONE 51
    Recent radar image (approx 1 hour ago) Band of rain some heavy from Scotland down to SW England. Zooming in to the south: A pulse of heavy rain heading towards the SE/EA for this evening/night. A cold front is moving from the west to the east through this evening and overnight followed by troughs of heavy showers. GFS 12z Thickness 500/1000hpa (darker greens to the west are cooler air following CF) 12z NAE 1800-0000hrs ppn: 12z NAE(up to 3am) Shows a heavy area of rain developing over Central northern England (Midlands up to Yorkshire) this is shown to affect through the night, so some heavy rainfall here I expect overnight 12z NAE 0000-0600hrs ppn: Need to look out for heavy showers around for Thursday for many places. Heavy rain could affect the east of Scotland and then the north of Scotland though Thursday. 12z NAE 0900-1500hrs ppn: Thursday daytime NAE indicates a shower line (rain streamer?) up the Irish sea, now this clipping into the east side of Northern Ireland and could affect for a long period of time. 12z NAE 1200-1800hrs ppn: The model indicates showers lines affecting southern and western coast through Thursday some getting inland I would expect. 6z EURO4 1200-1800hrs ppn: EURO4 indicates the inland showers more clearly, see the heavy deep blue are on the tip of N-Ireland, these moving inland and there are MO warnings out for the downpours to affect Northern Ireland on Thrs/Fri. 12z EURO4 ppn acc up to midnight Friday (Thrs night) Highest amounts: 30mm being indicated for the east side of N-Ireland. 10-12mm SE/EA. 20 perhaps isolated pockets of 30mm for Central south-this could hit the SE. 10-20mm the SW. up to 20mm Wales. possible 20mm for Central northern England overnight. This is one models precipitation accumulations this evening, through Thrs and up to Midnight 17/1. (not inclu Fri) other models show similar but different slightly varied areas. So some places seeing extra surface flooding and the watch is on for rain affecting Northern Ireland Thur/Fri. Are update were and when possible is any changes. 12z NAE 2100hr - surface pressure (low pressure on the scene) GFS -Surface Pressure Tendency for Thursday (tmw)1500hrs: Low pressure bringing bands/showers of heavy and thundery rain but not all areas would get them to severe. The outlook is for more of the same. (don't have time now to do any rain maps but are take a look later if I can to do a map for Thursday)
  23. ZONE 51
    Going to be doing a gallery on here soon of some incredible images have collected from around the web, "The Worlds most dramatic weather images" or something titled like that.. Also possibly a topic on climate and increased frequency of severe weather events. I share with you a tastier of the Worlds wildest weather-maybe this title! (here are 10 of the collection of weather photos on my computer that are for the coming gallery each one placed into a same sized background to enable easier viewing)
  24. ZONE 51
    Models signally potentially large totals of rain up to Thursday afternoon 20-30mm+ for Wales, Northwest England, Southern and Western Scotland, a cold front moves east Wednesday (today), Rainfall amounts up to 10-15mm for south inclu SE possible late today into night (inclu the heavy shws Thrs) NAVGEM: NAE acc ppn on the 18z: NAE ppn on the 00z (recent) Things change with the amounts of rain the models indicate until on the day, would know later more detail so something to keep watch on today.
  25. ZONE 51
    Not any severe weather in the way of rainfall just yet but do keep check on the forecasts as this may change within a short space of time. For now though I can keep you updated on the rain for tonight. Warm front crossing the south tonight and eventually the north. NAE-Thickness 500/1000hpa at midnight: The rain falling now continuing to move east this evening and overnight with heavy bursts in there. 12z NAE ppn data, 2100-0300hrs: 00z EURO4 (for the same hrs) 12z GFS 0000-0300hrs: 12z GFS 0300-0600hrs: All 3 models indicating some heavy bursts of rain on the fronts this eve/night. EURO4 rainfall is more patchy for the south, the GFS and NAE more heavier bursts here with up to 10mm over 6hr period. Looking at this data and latest radar image would suggest the front continuing eastwards bringing mild air with a band of rain some heavy this evening and tonight. 00z NAVGEM: Indicates several mm of rainfall for many places tonight/by morning. 12z UKMO: Possibly weakening towards the east tonight, as I said not any severe weather at the moment but the cold front and troughs are on the way and these could produce more heavy downpours this week...
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