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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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Tuesday 21 January (Today)
Band of heavy frontal rain moving from west to east through today slowly and not expected to get to the east side of UK until evening, possibly the night for far eastern areas,
00z NAE 1500-2100hrs:
Some of the rain becoming heavy and prolonged, west/east and central Scotland most likely seeing the highest totals with some very large rainfall possible here, rain/ppn today and tonight (snow for some) becoming persistent. The southwest of Scotland, and also Cumbria possibly seeing some quite heavy rain totals.
Other areas the rain moderate to heavy, 12-15mm generally I expect possibly a 20mm locally, I have highlighted these spots on my alert map, it looks as though the SE and EA should have quite low totals-at first but need to keep watch for mid-late week more prolonged rain possible.
(are keep watch as the rain front moves in this evening)
NAE 0000-0600hrs the fronts progression eastwards:
Expected rain/ppn total in MM:
East, west and central Scotland 40-50mmSouthwest Scotland up to 30mmCumbria up to 30mmA few areas possibly the Central England area a signal of 20mm, the far south/central and parts of Wales a few signals of 20mm, but generally 12-15mm more likely. Have highlighted these zones as a rainwatch on the alert map.Acummulated precipitation data -00z NAE +30:00z EURO4 +30:00z GFS +30:00z NAVGEM +30:00z CMC +30:00z UKMO precipitation -1200-1800hrs:1800-0000hrs:0000-0600hrs:00z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency (blue falling pressure, red rising pressure)
1500hrs:
0300hrs:
My rain alert map for today:
(new info added to the color code/key to map bar. The %percentage is risk of event occurring. For example - I have given the level 1 watch areas 25% risk of the 20mm, the 80% risk is for Scotland with H=High risk of disruption and here there is level 3 on my alert map for 30-60mm)
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@192/GFS 00z:
***snowrisk***
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0z almost identical to the 18z in the hi-res.
And what was the18z like to be "almost" identical to the 00z? some viewers might have missed outputs.
Certainly interesting is the BIG word today.
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Just looking at the ECM @192hrs (next Tue) low sitting over N.Sea with associated cold pool:
SP
Height 500hpa can see the cold pool 528dm.
SP+850s ( -5 )
Interesting times ahead!
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Not going to mention east UK blizzards yet...
Just a thought. What we are heading into is unusual territory, strikes me that all possibilities are open to what could happen. my take on this is a battleground snowfall more over this side, but word of caution only a potential scenario and this is not a ramp. I'm serious thinking here.
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"unusually cold for the direction...So the westerly flow would be picking up a colder than normal [airmass]in it's circulation then would usually be the case, bringing a higher risk of rain turning to snow.
Interesting post makes for a more exciting model watch having some unusual elements added into the mix.
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View from bedroom window. Visibly down to about 5 metres. Barely make out the car in the drive directly below the window. There is another car in the street and a house directly opposite.
Can't see anything in the pic! your reply likely to be "exactly"
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Not too surprised that Chris Fawkes is fairly bullish that this is just a cold blip (as he calls it) before there is a return to mild conditions but it was his statement on strat warming ..
"I'm afraid it's wishful thinking there are no signs of sudden stratospheric warming between now and February"
Odd, I thought the signs were certainly there, or is he technically correct and that any warming is later in Feb ?
Probably meant between now and up to February otherwise would have said up to March would have thought
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Couldn't find cold ramp so are stick it in here if ok.
Did a quick paint job!
Noting to do with any online paper was an ideal title for fantasy though.
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Not a great ECM - we are left in no man's land again with poorer heights to the north and the azores high collapsing over us.Hopefully just a poor run and not a new trend. Everyday is different on the models at the moment, some consistency would be most welcome!
Just hope models aren't going to be playing games with us for the next 2 months!!!
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Cold fans 'best' of the CFS:
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Not looking at the latest models, sharp temperature gradients over the N Atlantic fuelling strong depressions meaning further very unsettled weather with flooding issues & potential disruption due to wind.
Yes worrying that floods could continue, things have slowed down(weather systems/fronts) not good for the flooding situation but at least the stormy winds are eliminated from the pattern at the moment it's the last thing people need enough problems trying to free up the rivers of blockages from the trees holding back waters.
Jet winds now:
Jet at +144
Very much striking up power again, but a large high developing mid/east Atlantic (Azores)
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Just read this, new out from Weatheronline it is interesting:
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&DAY=20140117
(link should be long range forecast)
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Briefly snowy spell on the UKMO as Steve has already mentioned, before the Atlantic powers up and brings in a SWly air flow again, ECM heading the same way but with less cold uppers. Still looking quite stormy for a time as well.
UW144-21.gif ECM1-120.gifECM0-120t.gifStrong westerly flow by 144hrs on the ECM brining colder uppers across the Atlantic.
Storm winding up @ 168, the GFS has had this idea on quite a few runs now.
Thought that the storms were off now? the Jet playing one more fling then..
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Very interesting. Such a subject as this is very much something I have been interested in since childhood. As someone that has been in the close vicinity of such phenomenon (near to other people seeing the BL at the time) I would like answers to how they form. It seems that the 1980s had quite an occurrence of these ball lightnings especially around my home county of Surrey, many reports back then but not at all now, even with the Internet age not heard of any ball lightning locally not really anywhere else either(UK)
My thinking of a possible reason is the type of thunderstorms that occurred back then, day-time went almost dark, and my theory is cloud height, if the storm cloud does not reach such a height on a hot summers day (for example) then it would not go to dark, another theory being lightning type. I don't know just a thought.
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Sunday 19 January (Today)Latest radar analysis 0445:Latest radar suggests a line of rain from Kent (east) up through EA, stretching up the East coast to around the Humber area, heavy area of rain over northwest England, some rain over N.Wales, heavy rain affecting moslty NE/SE/S Scotland, all other areas patchy rain/showers around.Today:Rain affecting the east moving away and becoming confined to Scotland, this becoming heavy and prolonged some very heavy downpours over some eastern areas of Scotland, also some signals of heavy downpours affecting some other areas of Scotland, the Western Isles in particular(see alert map)Heavy showers/downpours developing over SW UK, and could become persistent later (see alert map) Note: have put level 1 alert (L1) on the warning map up to 20mm , this may need to be upgraded later for the 20-30mm depending on developments.Very wet over Shetland and Northern Isles(see alert map for Shetland)Heavy showers/downpours could affect the West of Ireland.Can't rule out some scattered heavy showers elsewhere through today and tonight.Latest data -General precipitation 1200-1800hrs -EURO4:NAE:Model data info from several ppn models -Highest rainfall values accm expected today up to early Mon:Eastern areas of Scotland (NE) 20-40MM risk of 60mm+ this most likely over higher areas.West of Scotland and the Western Isles 20-50mm in places possible.Shetland 20-30mm.SW UK 20-30mmAccumulated rainfall/ppn data:EURO4 18z +33:(The rain through central areas now mostly cleared)NAE 00z +30:GFS 00z +27:NAVGEM 12z +42:My rain warning map:(note the maps are still under experimentation with the color code key/ref to map)
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Just messin around soz!
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Forecast for next week
|||_----||||----||||----|||---||_|---_|-||---|-------------_||-|||-------|-----------_|--|--_|_-_
Thats the dna of next weeks weather
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I just hope this trough doesn't get stuck over the SE like the last one.
Becoming more likely to occur unfortunately and that these occurrences like what happened on Friday could happen again and especially next week, as blocking to the east and slow down of the weather pattern continues to affect, the fronts/troughs though have a chance of weakening to as they get here.
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I think JH has a fair point, and after all he did highlight the word POTENTIAL with big letters, which is very much what it is...
CFS continues to indicate some efforts towards a pattern change in February but very much biting the nails with it..
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CFS looking interesting, quite frustrating seeing what could be but isn't, not yet anyway... going to post a few what I call "best of the CFS" occasionally on here (for cold fans)
The cold all Bottled up situation:
this is @ +720 I know further than the GFS FI but if you don't look you won't know what could happen later...
.................................I'm lookin through begging to find a better cold chart to cheer you all up
+816... nope that's the wrong direction...
+840..looks good but would look better over this way more..
+1008.. ermmmmm
Not this times ppl but close! time for a coffeee and a snowpill?
Only playing to cheer you up after recent posts "I will provide more informative and interesting posts in the future" repeat x 100...
I think what it is we actually can't believe theres no real cold and snow on offer after what was the new ICE AGE that had set in since something like 2007...
(could this post be moved to the other model thread sorry should be there I think)
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Enjoyed that read!
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Saturday 18 January (today)
Latest radar: There is heavy rain now continuing to affect the SW and Wales with some very heavy downpours mixed in. Rain is now heading up from the s/sw towards the SE arriving in a few hours I expect, some heavy. A shower/streamer has formed over the Irish Sea, this could affect the Isle of Man and the east side of Northern Ireland soon.
Todays rain: Heavy rain is likely to intensify over the SW and Wales through today with 30-50mm possible although 25-35mm more likely, flooding becoming a problem and expected disruption could be quite severe with the flood situation, the areas where the heaviest rainfalls are likely is not certain at this stage. Heavy rain should move further north through Saturday affecting most western areas and up into Northern England, heavy rain probably affecting parts of Scotland, this most likely over the south, west and the east side of Scotland. Some signals for heavy rain to affect Shetland today.
Other areas of southern England (away from the SW), the SE and EA, some heavy showers and rain expected here but I don't see large ppn totals not above 20mm, but 10-15mm possible and a risk of 20mm but a low risk.
Accumulated rainfall data:
00z NAE +30hr:
(up to Sun 0600hrs)
18z EURO4 +33hr:
(up to Sun 0300hrs)
00z GFS +27hr:
(up to Sun 0300hrs)
12z NAVGEM +42hr:
(up to Sun 0600hrs)
12z CMC +39hr:
(up to Sun 0300hrs)
00z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency:
(0600hrs this morning)
Midnight:
My rain warning alert map:
(new on the map, accumulated ppn/rain in mm guide and color key to map alerts)
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Have seen many pics of the floods on the Internet from the Surrey areas from Friday flooding, the Cobham area has now flood warnings by the EA, that's where I was stranded on the 24th! all the water coming down from the swollen rivers through Gatwick and leatherhead areas, the Mole runs from those areas towards Cobham and Hersham, the next in line down stream gets this water soon.... the rivers respond so fast in these conditions and rise very quickly.
(also noticed a photo of Cob river Friday very very orangey brown and muddy, not seen this in previous pics, possibly a lot of banks are eroding?? I think much concern with this idea what could happen if it just keeps raining!)
More rain fell than expected Thrs night into Friday morning, then what was seen on the night I think. These things happen and are hard to predict. I was watching the radar last night, and saw the shower train sitting there, and this merged and sat around for hours hitting the same areas, and here I also got a lot of those downpours. A watch is on for our region for more heavy showers/rain (going to post in the heavy rain watch thread now, should be available to read in about an hour)
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/14
in Regional
Posted
Just updated the rain watch thread (link in my sig bottom of post)
Yes heavy fog here at Stanwell, next to Heathrow ap. lightens the plain noise a little too I think.