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ZONE 51

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Everything posted by ZONE 51

  1. ZONE 51
    @192/GFS 00z: ***snowrisk***
  2. ZONE 51
    And what was the18z like to be "almost" identical to the 00z? some viewers might have missed outputs. Certainly interesting is the BIG word today.
  3. ZONE 51
    Just looking at the ECM @192hrs (next Tue) low sitting over N.Sea with associated cold pool: SP Height 500hpa can see the cold pool 528dm. SP+850s ( -5 ) Interesting times ahead!
  4. ZONE 51
    Not going to mention east UK blizzards yet... Just a thought. What we are heading into is unusual territory, strikes me that all possibilities are open to what could happen. my take on this is a battleground snowfall more over this side, but word of caution only a potential scenario and this is not a ramp. I'm serious thinking here.
  5. ZONE 51
    So the westerly flow would be picking up a colder than normal [airmass]in it's circulation then would usually be the case, bringing a higher risk of rain turning to snow. Interesting post makes for a more exciting model watch having some unusual elements added into the mix.
  6. ZONE 51
    Can't see anything in the pic! your reply likely to be "exactly"
  7. ZONE 51
    Probably meant between now and up to February otherwise would have said up to March would have thought
  8. ZONE 51
    Couldn't find cold ramp so are stick it in here if ok. Did a quick paint job! Noting to do with any online paper was an ideal title for fantasy though.
  9. ZONE 51
    Just hope models aren't going to be playing games with us for the next 2 months!!!
  10. ZONE 51
    Cold fans 'best' of the CFS:
  11. ZONE 51
    Yes worrying that floods could continue, things have slowed down(weather systems/fronts) not good for the flooding situation but at least the stormy winds are eliminated from the pattern at the moment it's the last thing people need enough problems trying to free up the rivers of blockages from the trees holding back waters. Jet winds now: Jet at +144 Very much striking up power again, but a large high developing mid/east Atlantic (Azores)
  12. ZONE 51
    Just read this, new out from Weatheronline it is interesting: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&DAY=20140117 (link should be long range forecast)
  13. ZONE 51
    Thought that the storms were off now? the Jet playing one more fling then..
  14. ZONE 51
    Very interesting. Such a subject as this is very much something I have been interested in since childhood. As someone that has been in the close vicinity of such phenomenon (near to other people seeing the BL at the time) I would like answers to how they form. It seems that the 1980s had quite an occurrence of these ball lightnings especially around my home county of Surrey, many reports back then but not at all now, even with the Internet age not heard of any ball lightning locally not really anywhere else either(UK) My thinking of a possible reason is the type of thunderstorms that occurred back then, day-time went almost dark, and my theory is cloud height, if the storm cloud does not reach such a height on a hot summers day (for example) then it would not go to dark, another theory being lightning type. I don't know just a thought.
  15. ZONE 51
    Sunday 19 January (Today) Latest radar analysis 0445: Latest radar suggests a line of rain from Kent (east) up through EA, stretching up the East coast to around the Humber area, heavy area of rain over northwest England, some rain over N.Wales, heavy rain affecting moslty NE/SE/S Scotland, all other areas patchy rain/showers around. Today: Rain affecting the east moving away and becoming confined to Scotland, this becoming heavy and prolonged some very heavy downpours over some eastern areas of Scotland, also some signals of heavy downpours affecting some other areas of Scotland, the Western Isles in particular(see alert map) Heavy showers/downpours developing over SW UK, and could become persistent later (see alert map) Note: have put level 1 alert (L1) on the warning map up to 20mm , this may need to be upgraded later for the 20-30mm depending on developments. Very wet over Shetland and Northern Isles(see alert map for Shetland) Heavy showers/downpours could affect the West of Ireland. Can't rule out some scattered heavy showers elsewhere through today and tonight. Latest data - General precipitation 1200-1800hrs - EURO4: NAE: Model data info from several ppn models - Highest rainfall values accm expected today up to early Mon: Eastern areas of Scotland (NE) 20-40MM risk of 60mm+ this most likely over higher areas. West of Scotland and the Western Isles 20-50mm in places possible. Shetland 20-30mm. SW UK 20-30mm Accumulated rainfall/ppn data: EURO4 18z +33: (The rain through central areas now mostly cleared) NAE 00z +30: GFS 00z +27: NAVGEM 12z +42: My rain warning map: (note the maps are still under experimentation with the color code key/ref to map)
  16. ZONE 51
    Just messin around soz!
  17. ZONE 51
    Forecast for next week |||_----||||----||||----|||---||_|---_|-||---|-------------_||-|||-------|-----------_|--|--_|_-_ Thats the dna of next weeks weather
  18. ZONE 51
    Becoming more likely to occur unfortunately and that these occurrences like what happened on Friday could happen again and especially next week, as blocking to the east and slow down of the weather pattern continues to affect, the fronts/troughs though have a chance of weakening to as they get here.
  19. ZONE 51
    I think JH has a fair point, and after all he did highlight the word POTENTIAL with big letters, which is very much what it is... CFS continues to indicate some efforts towards a pattern change in February but very much biting the nails with it..
  20. ZONE 51
    CFS looking interesting, quite frustrating seeing what could be but isn't, not yet anyway... going to post a few what I call "best of the CFS" occasionally on here (for cold fans) The cold all Bottled up situation: this is @ +720 I know further than the GFS FI but if you don't look you won't know what could happen later... .................................I'm lookin through begging to find a better cold chart to cheer you all up +816... nope that's the wrong direction... +840..looks good but would look better over this way more.. +1008.. ermmmmm Not this times ppl but close! time for a coffeee and a snowpill? Only playing to cheer you up after recent posts "I will provide more informative and interesting posts in the future" repeat x 100... I think what it is we actually can't believe theres no real cold and snow on offer after what was the new ICE AGE that had set in since something like 2007... (could this post be moved to the other model thread sorry should be there I think)
  21. ZONE 51
    Enjoyed that read!
  22. ZONE 51
    Saturday 18 January (today) Latest radar: There is heavy rain now continuing to affect the SW and Wales with some very heavy downpours mixed in. Rain is now heading up from the s/sw towards the SE arriving in a few hours I expect, some heavy. A shower/streamer has formed over the Irish Sea, this could affect the Isle of Man and the east side of Northern Ireland soon. Todays rain: Heavy rain is likely to intensify over the SW and Wales through today with 30-50mm possible although 25-35mm more likely, flooding becoming a problem and expected disruption could be quite severe with the flood situation, the areas where the heaviest rainfalls are likely is not certain at this stage. Heavy rain should move further north through Saturday affecting most western areas and up into Northern England, heavy rain probably affecting parts of Scotland, this most likely over the south, west and the east side of Scotland. Some signals for heavy rain to affect Shetland today. Other areas of southern England (away from the SW), the SE and EA, some heavy showers and rain expected here but I don't see large ppn totals not above 20mm, but 10-15mm possible and a risk of 20mm but a low risk. Accumulated rainfall data: 00z NAE +30hr: (up to Sun 0600hrs) 18z EURO4 +33hr: (up to Sun 0300hrs) 00z GFS +27hr: (up to Sun 0300hrs) 12z NAVGEM +42hr: (up to Sun 0600hrs) 12z CMC +39hr: (up to Sun 0300hrs) 00z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency: (0600hrs this morning) Midnight: My rain warning alert map: (new on the map, accumulated ppn/rain in mm guide and color key to map alerts)
  23. ZONE 51
    Have seen many pics of the floods on the Internet from the Surrey areas from Friday flooding, the Cobham area has now flood warnings by the EA, that's where I was stranded on the 24th! all the water coming down from the swollen rivers through Gatwick and leatherhead areas, the Mole runs from those areas towards Cobham and Hersham, the next in line down stream gets this water soon.... the rivers respond so fast in these conditions and rise very quickly. (also noticed a photo of Cob river Friday very very orangey brown and muddy, not seen this in previous pics, possibly a lot of banks are eroding?? I think much concern with this idea what could happen if it just keeps raining!) More rain fell than expected Thrs night into Friday morning, then what was seen on the night I think. These things happen and are hard to predict. I was watching the radar last night, and saw the shower train sitting there, and this merged and sat around for hours hitting the same areas, and here I also got a lot of those downpours. A watch is on for our region for more heavy showers/rain (going to post in the heavy rain watch thread now, should be available to read in about an hour)
  24. ZONE 51
    Friday 17 January (Today) Recent radar images show heavy showers with some very heavy downpours over southern and western England and south Wales, some of these also clipping the north Wales coast, heavy showers over the eastern side of Northern Ireland, some also affecting the Isle of man too. Some Heavy rain could affect eastern parts of Scotland and also Shetland today. For the rest of tonight and through Friday continuing with much the same conditions and affecting the same areas as mentioned above. Can't rule out heavy showers in other places but the areas mentioned is where I expect the heaviest and largest rainfall totals on Friday. Precipitation max accumulation data (up to 0000hrs today) 12z EURO4: 18z NAE: 12z NAVGEM: 12z CMC: 18z GFS: 18z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency 1500hrs: Indicates steady to slightly rising pressure generally, falling pressure far north. 1800hrs: Indicates steady/rising pressure generally. Rain warning map for today: Have done an alert map to highlight the heavy rain and surface flooding risk areas for today. Flooding continues and likely increasing that risk for some areas today with the heavy downpours. UPDATE 4AM BASED ON LATEST RADAR expected heaviest rain downpours are moving a little further north, prolonged downpours merging now across the SE as per forecast. Map update to include areas more north of London area, and areas northeast of Bristol channel (Worcester) Risk of gusty winds, lightning and Thunder also some hail.
  25. ZONE 51
    Yeah but a trough say predicted for 1300hrs is more likely to turn up than a bus at a shown time on the table.....
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