ZONE 51

(charts are GFS 18z-latest update-show possible snow Sunday 2nd Dec or next wkend)

Latest Radar 2015hrs: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess= Radar shows a heavy band of rain moving across England and Wales through this evening, some very heavy downpours in there. Heavy downpours following into SW UK.

Very rough out there in north Surrey, deep long rumbling gusts building up in fury, very noisy, getting worse then the severe squall the other night which produced a howling gale with some severe potent gusts.

St Catherine's Pt Local Time 02:00 GMT = 02:00 Speed Peak Bearing mph Bft mph degree 2012-11-25 02:00 47 9 69 260° W west wind 2012-11-25 01:00 53 9 65 250° W west wind Note how the gusts increased as the wind went round from the southeast to the west 2012-11-25 00:00 22 5 35 220° SW south west wind 2012-11-24 22:00 19 5 31 150° SE southeast wind http://www.weatheron...kuk&SORT=3&UD=0

It's very rough here in north Surrey and far more further south. This is just the start of the wind storm, over the hours increasingly violent gusts of winds are likely.

The Met Office wind warnings have expanded recently

Essex could see some of the strongest gusts, if there's going to be a sting in it's tail then the East coast is where it would proberly be..

Below is my post from last night(page15) thought it would be best to re-post this now. ---- The Storm is developing and heading towards our shores, through today the winds are going to start hitting the South and West coasts, these winds increasing through the day and becoming very strong with Gale force gusts, the first swath of severe winds first battering SW UK into the evening/night and eventually all of Southern UK being battered by Gales, the most severe of these winds affecting SE UK and up the Eastern side of UK through Saturday night and Sunday morning with the coastal areas being the hardest hit with 70-80mph damaging gusts, inland Southern UK widespread gusts of 50-60mph with a risk of 70mph gusts, these to damaging in some areas. Northern regions could see Gales to, more particularly across from North Wales to the Wash area south seeing a risk of Gales. The areas hardest hit from the winds from this storm are likely to be(at this stage)areas of SE England - Kent, Sussex, areas of East Anglia - Suffolk, Norfolk. Essex, The East coast up into Lincolnshire and the Humber, SW England - Devon and Cornwall. South/SW coastal areas. Heavy and torrential rain is likely to affect many areas in the wind warning zones, this adding to the flooding problems, some areas seeing significant floods. This rainfall could move into areas not in the wind warning zones on my map, it is a complex situation and did not cover flood risk on the same map as this could complicate things. SE/ EA/ East coast, the strongests winds likely Saturday night into the early hours/morning Sunday. Below is a map i have drawn up to indicate where i expect the winds to affect using model data.(Fri-18z) ESS

Copying my post here from the storm thread in severe weather dicussion area. -- The Storm is developing and heading towards our shores, through today the winds are going to start hitting the South and West coasts, these winds increasing through the day and becoming very strong with Gale force gusts, the first swath of severe winds first battering SW UK into the evening/night and eventually all of Southern UK being battered by Gales, the most severe of these winds affecting SE UK and up the Eastern side of UK through Saturday night and Sunday morning with the coastal areas being the hardest hit with 70-80mph damaging gusts, inland Southern UK widespread gusts of 50-60mph with a risk of 70mph gusts, these to damaging in some areas. Northern regions could see Gales to, more particularly across from North Wales to the Wash area south seeing a risk of Gales. The areas hardest hit from the winds from this storm are likely to be(at this stage)areas of SE England - Kent, Sussex, areas of East Anglia - Suffolk, Norfolk. Essex, The East coast up into Lincolnshire and the Humber, SW England - Devon and Cornwall. South/SW coastal areas. Heavy and torrential rain is likely to affect many areas in the wind warning zones, this adding to the flooding problems, some areas seeing significant floods. This rainfall could move into areas not in the wind warning zones on my map, it is a complex situation and did not cover flood risk on the same map as this could complicate things. SE/ EA/ East coast, the strongests winds likely Saturday night into the early hours/morning Sunday. Below is a map i have drawn up to indicate where i expect the winds to affect using model data. ESS

The Storm is developing and heading towards our shores, through today the winds are going to start hitting the South and West coasts, these winds increasing through the day and becoming very strong with Gale force gusts, the first swath of severe winds first battering SW UK into the evening/night and eventually all of Southern UK being battered by Gales, the most severe of these winds affecting SE UK and up the Eastern side of UK through Saturday night and Sunday morning with the coastal areas being the hardest hit with 70-80mph damaging gusts, inland Southern UK widespread gusts of 50-60mph with a risk of 70mph gusts, these to damaging in some areas. Northern regions could see Gales to, more particularly across from North Wales to the Wash area south seeing a risk of Gales. The areas hardest hit from the winds from this storm are likely to be(at this stage)areas of SE England - Kent, Sussex, areas of East Anglia - Suffolk, Norfolk. Essex, The East coast up into Lincolnshire and the Humber, SW England - Devon and Cornwall. South/SW coastal areas. Heavy and torrential rain is likely to affect many areas in the wind warning zones, this adding to the flooding problems, some areas seeing significant floods. This rainfall could move into areas not in the wind warning zones on my map, it is a complex situation and did not cover flood risk on the same map as this could complicate things. SE/ EA/ East coast, the strongests winds likely Saturday night into the early hours/morning Sunday. Below is a map i have drawn up to indicate where i expect the winds to affect using model data. ESS

Excellent work GP i enjoyed it, read through the whole slide show, very technical stuff, thanks!

My winter forecast has now been completed, i have included a pdf file. -- ESS's - Winter forecast 2012/13 - December, January, February. Main Factors: La-Nina and El-Nino. Sea surface temperatures. Hurricane season. Solar activity. Long range forecast models. Forecast for December - (updated from my Autumn and early winter forecast, the change to a more colder month) Polar/Arctic air at times. Highest rainfall - Western and Northern areas - Atlantic weather systems most likely to affect here. Driest - Southern and Eastern areas - high pressure most likely. Temperatures - below average - Track of weather systems/Jet Stream/Atlantic High placement. Rainfall - slightly above average - Low pressure more frequent then high pressure until late month. Snowfall - above average - I expect snow to fall more likely than rain. A Cold month, strong Greenland high developing, North-sea/Scandinavian low pressure/Atlantic High placement. As we enter this month i expect the Jet stream to be hanging around and not really moving to far south at this stage, i expect the JS to be across the Southern Coast UK or North France, the Jet Stream quite weak at times. Low pressure systems affecting all areas, a few of these Lows deep, some very wet and very windy weather around as these systems sweep through, mild air at times within the systems and cold air sweeping down on the back edges of some of the Low pressures, and with some cold days and nights i expect some sleet and snow in the North and East to low levels and the cold air at times pulled into Western and southern UK then snowfall here to-even to low levels. There is likely to be ridges of high pressure inbetween the weather systems especially in South UK with frost and fog, some severe frost is likely for most places under the clear spells, the severe frost most likely late month where i expect stronger high pressure across the UK. Strong High pressure moving in to affect most areas from around mid-month, i'm expecting the Atlantic to slowly settle down with far less activity reaching our shores, the Low pressure systems being blocked, although some fronts affecting the far North and West at times late month but even here things becoming more settled, the High pressure bringing with it much calmer and much colder conditions, i expect sunny cold days and frosts for most, it is possible that severe cold develops towards the end of the month eventually bringing in a northeasterly flow with snow showers. Forecast for January - A very cold month, strong Scandinavian High. Arctic air/Elements of a Siberian winter. Highest rainfall - West UK - I expect rainfall more likely in the far west. Driest - SE UK (low confidence) - Most precipitation to fall in West and North. Temperatures - Well below average - Scandinavian high/Atlantic block/Northern blocking. Rainfall - below average, low rainfall amounts as snow is most likely. Snowfall - Well above average - more likely heavy snowfalls than rainfall, most of the precipitation falling as snow. A very cold and snowy month. This month starting off with high pressure, severe frost and fog, very cold with snow showers especially for the east side of UK, becoming progressively colder from the NE, significant falls of snow are likely across many places, most likely in areas exposed in a north-easterly flow, the severity of this cold cannot be answered at this stage, but i must emphasise that such charactistics of such an expected synoptic setup do usually lead to severe cold weather. At times in between the cold spells there is likely to be less cold conditions, but still cold and mostly dry, this where the high pressure cells move placements. As we go through the month a second severe cold spell developing possibly a strong but more easterly flow is expected, this would bring severe cold and snow, with Eastern Europe expected to be in a freeze it is likely to be severely cold-even colder than the north-easterly early month across the UK. A cold blocked month with frequent snowy spells from the n/ne/e, much of the snow falling from bands and showers of snow. Jet Stream south of UK, possibly over Spain. Forecast for February - A cold possibly very cold month, Scandinavian High, Atlantic block until late month. Temperatures - Below average possibly well below. Rainfall - below average - low frequency of Atlantic weather systems affecting the UK, cold enough for snow most of the month. Snowfall - Above average - much of the precipitation falling as snow, some significant snowfalls widely. Low confidence at this stage, i am expecting continued blocking of the Atlantic for most of the month, high pressure, cold or very cold. Snowfall from the n/ne/e, and some widespread severe frosts, the snow affecting many areas from the North and East, i expect the Atlantic to fire up late month with the Jet Stream moving back north, weather fronts hitting West UK causing snow to fall along the fronts as they move East, with milder air flows eventually gaining influence at the end of the month. Winter 2012/2013 - becoming progressively colder and drier through December after Atlantic low pressures with heavy rainfall, gales, and some snowfall, mid-late December frosts and snow showers, leading into a severe cold January with frosts and snow, February continuing with quite the same situation as January, with the Atlantic doors opening late February with battleground snowfall events as the mild air pushes up against the gained cold block of late Dec/Jan. below is my forecast in PDF ess - winter forecast 2012-2013 - pdf document.pdf ESS.

I heard a bolt not sure if it was the same one but i was in Walton-on-Thames and the thunder crack was mega, around 850am. And alot of early rainfall.

Link to the a new thread on this weather system/potent low. http://forum.netweat...weather-system/

Radar/Dew points/surface temperature watching today, be best if your on a hill as that's where we could see some sleet or even wet snow.

The weather system is developing and starting to move into SW UK as i type with heavy rainfall setting in now, this system developing into a small but potentially potent low pressure is going to move quickly across Southern England through the early hours of Sunday and throughout Sunday. NAE and GFS bring a large area of heavy rainfall across Southern areas, some of this rainfall causing flooding, the air is cold at the surface and upper temperatures are reasonable for wet hill snow, and even a risk sleet at lower levels in places, although that risk is low. Another element of this system is the winds, there is likely to be strong gusts as the low moves across, with the south coast and some areas just inland from here through Sussex and Kent we could see gusts 50-70mph, the strongest along Southeast coasts i expect, and 35-50mph gusts across inland SE England and possibly other parts of the S/SW. Recent radar: Recent radar shows heavy rain moving into the SW now The NAE accumulated precipitation up to midnight tonight indicates 15-20mm quite widely and as much as 20-45mm across parts of Central Southern and SE England: GFS accumulated precipitation up to midnight shows 15-17mm widely: The surface pressure at 0900am on NAE shows the small-scale in size but potent low: There are two low pressures systems on the above chart of interest, the one we are focusing on at this stage is shown over Southeast England here at 9am or where NAE expects it to be placed at that time. NAE ppn at 0300hrs-0900hrs this morning, some very heavy downpours can be expected through Sunday and with these a higher chance of the rain turning to wet snow over the hills, or sleet at lower levels, but i must say that it's a low risk of anything at low level. (keep watch on Dew points/Surface temps) A move south of the low and we could see a higher sleet/snow risk and a move north i would expect the stronger winds on the South coast to be further inland. We could also see hail, the GFS 500hpa shows very cold temperatures at that level, chart is for 1200hrs: There is a risk of thunderstorms please see the convective thread for the information. Last of all below is a warning map i have created to show where i expect the most severe weather to be from the data i have looked at, a few of those charts are posted above. ESS

50knots or just under 60mph through the Channel on NAE Sunday morning/afternoon.

OK, so both lows go anti-clockwise... now thats gonna cause some interesting radar returns..

What does GFS think about this then..

It looks that way, there is the potential for this to develop into a significant system.

The potential for a potent small low if it develops further

NAE 18Z shows the potential rain storm weather system at +30hrs(3/11 - 1800-0000hrs) moving to 36hrs next(4/11 - 0000-0600hrs) then 39hrs(4/11 - 0300-0900hrs)

I'm interested in the developing system for Sunday, take a look at the (36hr)FAX chart with this link: http://www.weatherch...PVG89.gif?31415 (note this link could update auto) It shows the system in development just of the SW coast

The chart above that i posted has changed from what it was when i posted it, didn't know posted images update like that?

Hi Paul, i had just made a topic that took a long time to do in the severe weather area on the Channel convection, i had launched it but it didn't work, i had saved it but the paste didn't work either, if it could be recovered that would be great! there is quite a few images with it from the models/radar it wouldn't allow me to use an image so maybe that was why. If it can't be recovered then maybe i will try again at some point. Topic title was "Channel Convection" asking about tonight's thundery activity in the Channel. Thanks. ESS