ZONE 51

There is the risk of some snow in the following areas giving a dusting or light covering, nothing significant is expected but 1-2 cm's possible, this most likely in the northern boxed zones. Slight dusting for parts of the South with isolated snow, although a slight covering is possible. Risk is for Wednesday 12th December(today) Using latest model data and radar images - Parts of southern England - Cumbria - Scotland - Strathclyde, Dumfries & Galloway, Lothian and borders, Grampian and possibly Tayside, also some snow showers into the far north of Scotland and Islands/Shetland - Map below: ESS

Is that snow cover under that cloud i can see on the horizon?

10m streamlines: look at the flow towards the southcoast at 0600hrs tomorow, next the precipiation for 0000hrs-0600hrs: The ppn shown along the s-coast would filter inland during the early hours, the conditions are perfect for snow to fall inland, need to check the updates later but i would expect there will be light snow for some across the SE early Wednesday. Charts NAE12z below is ppn for Thursday 0600-1200hrs: More later on the potential snow events this week.

Mark N, excellent forecast, quite a long read and i can see you put alot of work onto that!

Yes Atlantic low pressure systems.

At +180 just wanted to show the block of cold/Russian High to the east on gfs 850s Deep lows won't be going though the hard cold block, that is staying put.

I have seen this, and another affect is when it's snowing steady then if looking straight up then it looks much heavier, and that is why the hills get the largest falls of snow.

Part of my forecast i posted mid November

I've experienced situations where it's snowing heavy wet snow then becomes light with drizzle, and sometimes when it's trying to snow it changes from snow to rain and so on. To find out if rain is turning to sleet i have used black cloth, or even a coat sleeve to determine whether or not it is sleet, i find this very useful, looking at car roofs i would see there is ice in the rain, another is of course lamp post watching at night, for this it's always best to shield the main light, for example if there is a lamp post light the other side of a telegraph pole alligned then this would show up the rain/snow very well. During daytime i look at a dark area of shrub/bush or fence to show up any sleet/snow in the rain. If i could i would invent some device for the outside that collects the precipitation on a dark surface and have a microscopic macro camera setup sending images or video to my computer.

It's likely to become increasingly cold through next week, and for some very cold night and daytime temperatures to, i have done a map on where i expect any snow to be on Monday and Tuesday, wintry showers down the East coast with sleet and snow at times over the period Mon-Tue, areas of East Anglia and Kent nearer to the coast could get some more heavier snow showers, with Suffolk, Norfolk, Essex, Kent, and possibly eastern side of East Sussex late Monday and into Tuesday seeing a risk of a snow streamers or persistant sleet/snow showers, the snow showers blown in on a north to northeasterly flow, models are indicating a potential line of snow showers that could push into Southeastern coasts Monday night and early Tuesday. There is the risk of snow cover although at this stage it would be difficult to say but i do expect 1-2cm from any snow showers more particularly across the above said areas, also into some eastern coastal areas maybe further inland to. For example if the expected snow streamer did set up from the North sea and headed into Kent then we could be looking at several cm's. Snow Map below: ESS

Very tired but still i could not miss the 00z upgrade to cold on GFS, the 528dam line for 0300hrs thursday is not in the north sea as on 18z but halfway across Britain! that is some distance and makes a huge difference to the outcome. and the cold if quite a lot further west from the east, the Atlantic system is more west to, quite some battle being indicated on GFS, we could be holding onto deeper cold well into next weekend, this very cold airmass ariving Monday after a milder Sunday. ESS

GFS - 00z Thickness 500-1000hpa There has been an upgrade on the colder side for next week, the 528dam is quite significantly further west, the deep north Atlantic system is shifted west 18z - 00z - All charts are 0300hrs next Thurs(+99hrs) -- The 850s upper temps below - 18z - 00z - GFS 00z - Atlantic weather holding back towards the end of next week, the cold/very cold further west through next week.

On the Thursday FAX chart the warm sector is over France so that's a start for snow fans, with an occluded front on the FAX Thursday coming up against the cold block, i would think at least some snowfall for a few hours but i expect the possiblity of a slowing or stalling occluded front, this could weaken and we keep the cold. I can understand the frustration in the model thread of cold fans, how far the cold can get to the west side, but i must say one thing.. nothing is set in stone just yet, and nothing is certain. ESS

EA/SE - next week becoming very cold with an increasing chance of snow showers for some, the most likely areas nearest to the coast getting the most persistant snow showers, but i expect much more potential is there, the cold is likely to hold on firm as the Atlantic weather systems battle in..or try to..(or in our case potential snow systems..) the best bet is to not expect snowfall but wait until nearer the time and then surprises might just arrive. I would be happy to have just light snow blowing in the icy breeze! ESS

UKMO shows -9/-10 upper 850s temps EA/SE Tue

JP thanks for your input as always! i really think the frontal situation on Thursday is very interesting, even though interest before that of course, but i expect the cold to hang on and stall the front with snowfall here.(trying a new font)

Norfolk/Suffolk/Essex/Kent/East Sussex These are the areas most likely to get snow showers on Monday night and Tuesday at this stage after looking through the models, streamers could set up down into Kent for example, these would be snow showers that are persistant, the cold air over warmer seas would create convection. I might just over-ride this and say troughs in the flow bringing heavy bands of snow as far west as........better not!! lets just see how it goes, things of surprises can develop when we have the sea there! and looking ahead late week we could get some frontal snow events. ESS

Just to say that nothing is certain just yet on whether we get snow, i expect some snow showers will develop even streamers next week, a very cold pool of air is likely next week, what we are not sure about at this stage is the snow amounts and where, i will post up in the snow watch thread late weekend if i can and give my thoughts on the snow risk.

GFS 00z - Freezing, the deeper cold does make it across, the deep low north Atlantic is closer early in the week, to me the model appears to show a delay, a battle, maybe not as deep cold widespread as the 18z(early)look at Thursday chart 850/1000hpa above(00+168hrs), now that is very cold air mass over us, and look to the east the big freeze. All i can see is a very cold spell developing next week, we are at Friday and a few adjustments to be made yet for this, it's going to be a bouncy ride this weekend, but please do relax!!

There will be a significant drop in temperatures and dew points by morning, and where the precipitation is the heaviest then that is where snow could settle and cover.

A boot of colder air would change the rain to wet snow more likely over the hills but i think low ground is at risk of snow.

There is quite likely to be snowfall over the SE/EA through towards morning, the hard part is who gets the settling snow and how much, there is a risk of a snow event. Next weeks very interesting to!

Check on the snow watch thread i have made a post in there with a snow risk map. An upgrade on the models this morning indicating a higher risk of snow for EA/SE. We could see sleet or wet snow over the hills possibly lower levels as the fronts come up against the cold air later today, but most likely sleet, but then we could get some back edge snowfall tonight/early Friday. ESS

Warnings are out as a new weather system moves in from the northwest, this bringing heavy snowfall to Scotland through the early hours of this morning and into the afternoon and through the evening, hills getting significant accumulations, low level snowfall is likely to, this snow pusing into Northern England through the day giving some large accumulation over the hills with a risk of low level snow. For the Midlands, East Anglia and the Southeast there could be some sleet or snow, this most likely to be the back edge snowfall during the early hours of Friday i expect. There is the risk of North Wales seeing hill/mountain snowfall. Taken off map i posted a few hours ago and replaced with the updated one, i have added dotted lines to the upgraded areas for snow risk, the colour code of the dotted lines are the same as the lined colours. Upgrade to snow risk using latest model data - the changes are now an increased risk of hill snow with a risk of low level snowfall across East Anglia, London and the South-east, for early hours Friday with a risk of some sleet/snow before that on the front edge of the fronts, the snow risk for Wales upgraded to affect more areas of Wales, this snowfall most likely over the high ground. The edited snow warning map is below: (Note Zone 2 warning area now includes all of the South-east) ESS

My post from the Snow Watch thread Wednesday 5th December Across England we have a developing potential snow event, this arriving into Southeast England through this morning, heavy snow showers are over Scotland, and sleet or snow showers down the East coast heading into Northeast England, i have drawn up a snow map on where i expect the snow to fall, Scotland, the Midlands, East Anglia, London and the Southeast at highest risk of heavy snow through this morning, and also near east coastal areas seeing potential snow showers, these are already into Scotland and running down the East coast now, with an area of moderate/heavy wintry sleet and snow across central UK(Midlands..)heading south. Some areas could see a covering of snow or adding to snow cover. Moderate Risk of the SE snow event - For London and the SE i expect 1-2cm widespread with as much as 5cm on the hilly areas, there is the risk of more maybe up to 10cm in some local spots-if this does occur then i expect this to affect the areas north/west/south of London over the higher routes.There have been upgrades to this snow event since tuesday evening, with an increasing risk of this event producing a covering of snow for many Southeast areas this morning. ESS