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ZONE 51

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  1. ZONE 51
    GFS 18z all so de-warms the uppers.. we are being upgraded on snow potential for more of the region for Sun/Mon, this is a very interesting situation!
  2. ZONE 51
    Image below compares the Thickness 850-1000hpa upper temps on the NAE 12z/18z at 1200hrs Sunday We draw in colder air from the continent increasing the risk of snowfall as surface temperatures/dew points are lower across more parts of the SE then was indicated earlier Friday.
  3. ZONE 51
    Looks as though we could be drawing up some even colder air from the continent on Sunday then was shown on the models earlier today, effectively we should be looking at an increased risk of snow for the SE (slight upgrade) more in a bit on this..
  4. ZONE 51
    Welcome to the forum.Chart for 48hrs NAE 18z does show snow developing over SE/EA away from the south coast 1200hrs-1800hrs. But what will it show after 48! i think once snow sets in then it's on!(rather then turning back to rain)
  5. ZONE 51
    Would like to provide this website link if anyone is looking for weather graphics/animation. http://www.mikeaffor...r-graphics.html ----- Could be some snow around Saturday. Reason to not worry about Sundays/Monday snow risk, we have 36-48hrs until the event and a lot can change, several model runs to go on some, It's happened in the past where heavy rain/sleet chilled the air turning rain to wet snow which settled, and last of all no one said it won't actually snow!
  6. ZONE 51
    11/2 @ 0000hrs Mon Fine line for areas just south of London(heavy sleet/wet snow) i still expect a south movement of the snow areas by Sat night to affect... won't say now though! chart GFS 18z
  7. ZONE 51
    Yes i think the occluded front weakens across the south tomorow, giving rain/sleet/snow patches across the SE, and as it heads into EA especially then the front increasing in intensity with sleet/snow i would think.
  8. ZONE 51
    Done an animation of the GFS 18z Thickness 850-1000 hpa charts Sunday 1800hrs-Monday 1800hrs, shows the system pulling down the colder air as it tracks east/southeast. (animation at end of post) Looking through the models it's a potential widespread snow event for our region, depending on track, further south/southeast this then pulling in colder air-mass, i expect the low to track a little more south as it moves across England than what is indicated at present, on Sunday/Monday i see the potential for convective thundery elements to be involved in this strong weather system, for our region i expect it to be a very wet period of weather with rain(FIRST) this through Sunday turning to snow into Monday, IF it does what i think then we can be looking at large snowfalls widespread. Possibly more snowfall Monday night into Tuesday. Exciting and very interesting set up, one not seen that often, and uncertainty makes it more exciting! ESS
  9. ZONE 51
    I always stick with the models that indicate snow 0;
  10. ZONE 51
    Not my road this morning... Looking interesting late weekend/early next week we could get the right set-up for significant snowfall across our region, the timing cannot be pinpointed yet and the amounts of snow can be estimated to a certain extent using the models, but really we can only say a risk of significant snowfall.
  11. ZONE 51
    Short while ago the squall line went through Esher area(near Kingston)heading south/se , was very heavy rain, quite powerful gusts. quite an exciting!, must have been the trough feature(The thick black line on FAX)All calmed down now. Over the next few hours surface/air temperatures+upper temps(850s...)dew points will fall, the air conditions becoming right for snow to fall, what we can expect is sleet and snow showers to move down from the northwest, heavy snow most likely to settle on low ground then lighter snow if ground is wet(heavy snow over powers wet ground). accumulations most likely over higher ground(Chiltens/Downs..) the deep North sea low moves into the south North sea later Tuesday/today, this pulling down some snow, so needs watching as we get into Wednesday, i expect the METO yellow warning of snow on Wednesday to extend further south to Kent and maybe further west, Risk that a warning could affect the SE today for snow.
  12. ZONE 51
    Some useful information here.. Aberdeen/Dyce (69 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorBelfast/Aldergrove AP (68 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorBenbecula (6 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorBenson (57 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorBirmingham (99 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorBournemouth (10 m)6.0 °CRainBrize Norton (81 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorCardiff Airport (67 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorDishforth (33 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorDoncaster Airport (12 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorEdinburgh Airport (41 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorGatwick Airport (62 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorGlasgow Airport (8 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorInverness/Dalcross (9 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorIslay/Port Ellen (17 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorKinloss (5 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorKirkwall Airport (21 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorLakenheath (10 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorLeuchars (10 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorLiverpool AP (26 m)4.0 °Csleet showersLondon City Airport (5 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorLondon Heathrow Airport (25 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorLondon Stansted Airport (106 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorLossiemouth (6 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorLuton Airport (160 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorManchester (69 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorNewcastle Airport (81 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorNortholt (39 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorNorwich Weather Centre (37 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorPembrey Burrows (6 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorPrestwick (27 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorRNAS Culdrose (84 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorScatsa/Shetland Island (22 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorSouthend-on-Sea AP (15 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorSt Athan (49 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorStornoway (15 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorSumburgh Cape (5 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorValley (10 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorWattisham (89 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorWick (36 m)0.0 °CReport ErrorWittering (73 m)0.0 °CReport Error !!! http://www.weatheron...t&DATE=--&CEL=C Most stations showing error not sure what's happened!
  13. ZONE 51
    Here is an interesting chart GFS 18z surface pressure+850s for Tuesday 1800hrs The chart indicates freezing conditions across all areas deep north north sea low pressure pulling in freezing winds+snow dew points below freezing and surface temps very cold with very strong winds surface winds 10m Where gets this combination of low dew points/surface temps/very strong winds/snow is likely to get blizzard conditions A wintry week next week.
  14. ZONE 51
    Hi all GFS 18z fires off our cold wintry blast from Tuesday morning, 500/1000 hpa Thickness 0600hrs Tuesday Zooming into the same chart as above: 528 dam line clears south coast by early Tuesday morning Wintry week coming up next week! we get several chances where we could see sleet/snow, a lot will change with the snow areas/amounts, and i expect an upgrade to the cold/snow situation next week, i also expect early warnings to be issued on Sunday by the METO, for UK snow, and to include parts of our region.
  15. ZONE 51
    NAE 12z 0000hrs-0600hrs Think are be sticking with this one.. although i am a little worried in these situations, but i do have confidence that something is to surprise us on this one, quite sure some areas north and east of London are going to get snowpounded.. BUT i do also expect snowfall across much of inland SE, i would imagine the yellow METO warning to extend south into west sussex later. Looking through the data/models and the current situation i think that snow is likely for most of our region.
  16. ZONE 51
    Temps and dew points dropping overnight. GFS shows the snow expanding into Kent for example, but west of our region in the main risk zone of large falls. If snow is light/moderate if persistant can top up quite well, still have quite a covering from fri/sun events here, been exciting reading the mod thread especially although i hardly post as so busy. After the coming mild/stormy spell its quite possible were be back to the freezing cold and snow!
  17. ZONE 51
    Snowing in Walton-On-Thames light-increasing steady. The snow is widespread and appears to be expanding into Kent, it is likely to hang around overnight. Heres a radar screen snap at 545pm
  18. ZONE 51
    Hi all, it looks like we should see some persistant snow forming tonight/snow showers, just been looking through the charts, NAE and GFS both indicate snow across our region into the early hours of Tuesday, this time round it going to all be snow Thickness 850/1000 hpa the North Sea helping to brew up convective clouds enhancing heavy snowfall near the east coasts with some snow moving right across towards London for example. Surface winds-GFS Surface winds Nae Surface winds-NAE I expect Kent to be in the firing line overnight for the heavy snowfall and up into Suffolk/Norfolk/Essex, although some less significant snow could affect further west into areas as far as the far West Sussex/London west. Staying cold with snow showers and some snow events at times in the days ahead ESS
  19. ZONE 51
    Forecast for Friday 14th and Saturday 15th December 2012 Stormy far north, snow over Scotland and Shetland Risk of early snow over parts of Scotland Friday. Heavy rain moves into Scotland through the afternoon and evening this could turn to snow, Saturday night Scotland and the Northern Isles/Shetland could see heavy snow in places, more likely over Shetland where storm force winds are likely to develop late Friday and early Saturday creating blizzards, These storm force winds affecting Shetland/Northern Isles, with the far north of Scotland at risk to of stormy winds Friday evening and Saturday. Snow should turn to rain through Saturday afternoon over scotland, the Isles, and Shetland, although snow could still fall in places. To view warning map see link below: Posted in Atlantic storm thread a warning map, i have edited the text for here to show just the snow info, please see my full post on the link here - http://forum.netweat...00#entry2446927 not posted map here as covers other weather types. ESS
  20. ZONE 51
    Forecast for Friday 14th and Saturday 15th December 2012 Heavy rain and flooding, gales, stormy far north, snow over Scotland and Shetland Risk of early snow over parts of Scotland Friday. Heavy prolonged rain crossing England, Wales, Ireland though Friday morning and early afternoon, moving up across Northern England by afternoon, with gale force winds for most places, especially along coasts and hills, as the heavy rain moves into Scotland through the afternoon and evening this could turn to snow, heavy downpours following the rainfall across England, Wales and Ireland into Saturday night. On Saturday night Scotland and the Northern Isles/Shetland could see heavy snow in places, more likely over Shetland where storm force winds are likely to develop late Friday and early Saturday creating blizzards, These storm force winds affecting Shetland/Northern Isles, with the far north of Scotland at risk to of stormy winds Friday evening/night, and on Saturday. Snow should turn to rain through Saturday afternoon over Scotland, the Isles, and Shetland, although snow could still fall in places. All other areas at risk of heavy downpours through saturday with Southern England most likely to see these on Saturday. My warning map is below: Please keep check on warnings and updates on stormy weather developing today and tomorow especially over the far north/Shetland later this evening and into Saturday where damaging winds are likely (update-risk of severe gales developing today across Southern England, most likely SE) (precipitation could turn wintry over northern England for a while early today) ESS
  21. ZONE 51
    Snow risk for Thursday over much of Scotland Weather front moving through bringing snow, some significant falls in places. Heaviest snow expected over southwest Scotland first then this moving into other western, northern and central areas of Scotland and a risk of this snow moving east though Thursday. Map below shows where i expect the snow to be using latest model data. ESS
  22. ZONE 51
    Just trying out the Christmas skin, i like it! really cool!! and the snowmen are great, and the large 3d netweather.tv text is great, nice design, this years one is fine for me as last years was a little dizzy and had to change it, but this is ok. Wondering about any snow Thursday, it keeps changes so never know what it might do, can't imagine anything but either snow or rain freezing solid on everything.
  23. ZONE 51
    The Atlantic has been held back or squeezed for quite sometime, this has enabled a lot of energy to build up which is going to get released as a stormy spell. I expect things to settle down towards late Dec and very cold to widely return.
  24. ZONE 51
    Certainly the coldest since last winter, ice day of shade frost on grass/roofs.. evening dense fog formed fast everything icy, late evening paths/roads white with frost and freezing fog, tonight the freeze is really quite extreme. All we need now is a snow shower!
  25. ZONE 51
    It is frustrating, not sure how the forecasters keep up with the model output changes! It's interesting when we are at these situations that no certainty in the outcome is yet set, who knows, there could be a snow event for some as the systems move in this week. Below is an image i quickly put together showing the advancing mild air as an oven and an ice block on the cold blocking high to the east. The ice block v the oven:
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