ZONE 51

The extremely violent squall not long ago went through my area Stanwell (next to Heathrow AP) planes were grounded during this didn't notice any taking off. This was so violent and torrential one of the most severe have experienced, the winds estimated 50-70mph gusts and appeared to have had damaging potential, were very noisy on roof, and trees were violently moving Also lightning several flashes, and on the back edge, sounded like thunder heard as distance rumbles. Lots of surface flooding right now. This potentially damaging squall line heading through the Southeast now, arriving into Sussex and Kent.

Couldn't update the today would have spread the L1 into the central south and southeast (map has a watch!) The extremely violent squall not long ago went through my area Stanwell (next to Heathrow AP) planes were grounded during this didn't notice any taking off. This was so violent and torrential one of the most severe have experienced. The wind estimated 50-70mph gusts and appeared to have damaging potential. Also lightning several flashes, sounded like thunder heard. Lots of surface flooding right now. This potentially damaging squall line heading through the Southeast now, arriving into Sussex and Kent.

To those that don't know what the data/info means I would advise that when viewing the model thread to ask questions, theres always posters happy to answer, or you could just look words up on the Internet, there's also a learning area on the forum and this is for advanced users too and has some very technical threads. But most ppl probably just want a simple explanation of the charts without any techy bits, I understand that!

Yes we need to arrive at Sunday night first, then the models/data would likely have a better idea of next week. My personal view point on this is only mild flirts, I cannot imagine the Scandi high losing grip not the characteristic of such a situation that we have now. From experience with set ups unfolding like the oncoming there is great uncertainty, therefore no one I expect can say for certain what the late next week would bring...

This is how it probably goes, could see some squally showers later today>>>>>>turning much more cold this eve/tonight>>>>>bit milder as storm system moves in tmw (this is a cold storm not double figures u would expect usually) heavy rainfall and gales here>>>>>turning cold with wintry sleet or wet snowy showers Mon>>>>>>from then on wintry cold weather setting in for possibly one week>>>>>>>Model thread decoded=====cold spell yes length of wintry blast unsure........................................................

Just a quick post here. Cold front/trough moving south/southeast bringing band of heavy rain and showers some very squally, thundery with hail thunder, possible sleet or snow most likely hills north. Done an alert map based on this situation, after checking recent accumulated ppn data and ppn hourly runs, and latest radar. Bit different from usual maps I do as is for the progress of the front and the risk of heavy sudden downpours on it's journey S/SE. Have put a L1 watch for the far south. Are do an update later if the front affects here more than the data is suggesting at the moment. But for northern and western area could catch 10-20mm from this I expect and western Scotland possible 20-30mm upto midnight accm.

I see there is a convective outlook on UKWW for Saturday. Mention of possible low level snow moving south on this feature to affect the south by evening time (think read this bit on NW forecast) so an interesting day for hail,sleet and even snow falling, maybe thunder to MO mention this.

Must be snow in the forecast... noticed just how busy NW gets when the cold and snow is on the horizon!! Image to show what the bottom of main page looks like right now! over 1200 online now!! (purposely blurred as images can get spread about, only fair to do this)

Can I just show this after reading some posts about the MetO forecasts, this updated earlier.. Expect from looking at the increasingly exciting (cold) FAX charts that an upgrade (if you like) coming soon. See no reason that this cold and snowy snap or spell.. is going to not be anything but just that! The signs been building over the last say 2 wks or so with more occluded fronts on the FAX's and the building Scandi high. Seeing such a deep low BLOCKED from entering the Northeastern territory they usually head up too then that is really quite something!

does it really say 2010 on this image?

Exciting times ahead for cold fans! those "sliding lows" are gonna drop se like a bobsleigh down an ice track!

Interesting CK are read later ^^ Just before I go this proves everything and is real, don't even ask the file number in the heavy rain and flood alert map folder!!!!!!!!!!! Exactly says it all. saying that some years late snow can come and be deep and a wintry time to come next week, so time to dust down the sledges .. well ... at least know where they are to buy!

Friday 24 January (today) Current radar image 415am: Persistent heavy rain now affecting Ireland, SW England and into South Wales, edge of this rain is as far as east Wiltshire and west Hampshire, stretching up over western areas into the west of Scotland. Scattered Temperature reports at about 440am: Aberdeen -2C, Shap(north) 1C , Belfast 5C, Mumbles Head(southwest) 7C, Plymouth 8C, London Heathrow AP 3C, Norwich -1C, East Midlands 2C, Thorney Island(south coast) 4C. Milder air moving into the SW, colder air hangs on over the east side UK. Thickness 850/1000hpa 1800hrs: Clearly indicated is the warm sector arriving in the SW (yellow) alot of rainfall expected here. Cold air still over to the east (darker greens) Rain forecast for today: The area of persistent and prolonged rainfall now affecting the SW/W moves slowly east through today with the heaviest rain over the SW and Wales and western Scotland. The rain moving east to affect all areas by late in the day and night I expect. GFS indicated this rain on it's latest model run and is as seen on the recent radar image: Radar: 00z GFS precipitation 0300-0600hrs: 00z GFS indicates rain over the south to ease and then develop further over west of Scotland - 1200-1500hrs: But then re-develops the rain further south through the afternoon and evening: 18z EURO4 - 0600-0900hrs: Very heavy rainfall indicated over SW England this morning. Accumulated Rainfall Data: 00z EURO4 +30: 00z GFS +30: 12z CMC +42: 12z NAVGEM +42: Expected ppn accm up to 0600hrs Saturday: Heaviest rainfalls: West of Scotland and the western Isles of Scotland, SW England 25-40mm Western, Northern and Central Scotland 20mm-25mm. Generally moderate to heavy rain areas: SW England and Wales, perhaps parts of central southern England 20-25mm. Scotland, England-SW,South,SE and EA,North,Northwest, and Wales generally seeing 10-20mm. (It's not expected that all the noted areas above receive these stated amounts of rain) Flooding is likely and possibly noticeably disruptive flooding for some areas. My rain alert map for today: Big screen map: =================== Smaller(same)map lower file size below should work better on the phones: 00z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency- 0900hrs: 2100hrs: ========================================================== A look ahead to Sunday: Looking very much a concern after all the rain that could fall today, this is a deep Atlantic storm to affect on Sunday and possibly Monday too, bringing very much more rainfall and damaging winds for some areas, potentially disruptive flooding with likely increasing or continued river/stream floods. So were take a look at the ppn/rain side of this storm now. Precipitation Data from 00z GFS: 0300hrs Sunday: 0300-0600hrs: 0600-0900hrs: Going to leave it here, are try and do a post nearer to the day on this with near time frame of event data. -- Quick explanation of the alert maps: L=level of alert. L+W=Watch. LOW/MED/HIGH=risk of potential disruption, the %+25/50/80=how likely the event to occur. The blue oval disks at top of side bar indicate the size of rainfall in MM, the more rain accumulations=L/M/H ,H=largest expected ppn accm, for example if you see a HIGH RSK the (H)IGH is for size of expected rainfall and is shown on the blue oval as H. working on the side bar info in relation to the map, but I think so far it works well. the maps are generally based on accumulated ppn data, and I try and use as close to the event data as is available. E.

Thursday 23 January (today) Latest radar: Line of heavy rain showers some downpours, possibly wintry, containing sleet or snow over the hills in north moving east. Areas affected at the moment are south/central Wales and down into the SW (north coast moslty) the west side of northern England and the NW, Scotland, showers over Ireland and N.Ireland. Rain forecast today: band of heavy showers with some wintry especially on the hills in the north (snow to lower ground possible over west/northwest of Scotland) showers/rain moving to east side of UK clearing to scattered showers apart from Scotland where heavy ppn continuing today. 00z EURO4 ppn - 0600-1200hrs: 1200-1800hrs: 1800-0000hrs: Next band of heavy rain into Ireland this evening, this prolonged, clear gap further east. Going to keep it short today but are try do a bigger more in-depth post on the events Friday/wkend. 00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Tendency - 0900hrs: 0000hrs (midnight tonight) That's Fridays weather event moving into the west tonight (blue=falling pressure) PPN ACCM: UP TO EARLY HRS FRIDAY: WEST OF SCOTLAND/WESTERN ISLES - 20-30MM SHETLAND 20-25MM WEST OF AND THE WEST COAST OF IRELAND - 20-30MM IN EVENT OF SNOWFALL OVER SCOTLAND THESE TOTALS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 30CM OF SNOW. 1MM-1CM APPROX. My Rain Alert Map (incl snow risk as *symbols)

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=168&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

It might be to cold out there soon for a Feast ice lolly... lol!! But maybe could have a FEASTERLY feasterly's are very tasty they come from the east and taste of snow plenty available soon... So a tasty snowy feasterl'y could arrive soon.... (image edit took a while lol had to copy edit bits of text!)

Some not much talked about very convective based action on the way, starting this morning I found out! Bet this thread be rolling when it arrives later! Before that though take a look at these incredible photos of storms...also interesting article. http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140122-storms-as-never-seen-before

Yes very much a concern and a fear is that the rain storms (and windstorm) ahead are likely to result in a flash flood very quickly, I think the possibility of as bad if not worse for some areas than the late Dec floods is there, unfortunately.

Interesting how it appeared there, I think the wheel flip theory is the only explanation for this that makes sense. A rock from space would create a hole. Not sure the height or angle of the lay of land on that bit but they would off said if it could of rolled down a slope I'd expect. Still think there's things living under the ground there, sounds a bit sci fi but has any robot found a hole or tunnel/cave? they have not covered the whole planet? [robots] so all possibility's are there that the life forms stay underground due to the conditions above ground...

Done a quick animation based on recent charts...

Thanks John. Good to mix in some colorful charts especially when there's nice deep blues on them!!

At least widespread 10-15mm expected over the region up to this morning from the front moving east.

Just updated the rain watch thread (link in my sig bottom of post) Yes heavy fog here at Stanwell, next to Heathrow ap. lightens the plain noise a little too I think.

Tuesday 21 January (Today) Band of heavy frontal rain moving from west to east through today slowly and not expected to get to the east side of UK until evening, possibly the night for far eastern areas, 00z NAE 1500-2100hrs: Some of the rain becoming heavy and prolonged, west/east and central Scotland most likely seeing the highest totals with some very large rainfall possible here, rain/ppn today and tonight (snow for some) becoming persistent. The southwest of Scotland, and also Cumbria possibly seeing some quite heavy rain totals. Other areas the rain moderate to heavy, 12-15mm generally I expect possibly a 20mm locally, I have highlighted these spots on my alert map, it looks as though the SE and EA should have quite low totals-at first but need to keep watch for mid-late week more prolonged rain possible. (are keep watch as the rain front moves in this evening) NAE 0000-0600hrs the fronts progression eastwards: Expected rain/ppn total in MM: East, west and central Scotland 40-50mm Southwest Scotland up to 30mm Cumbria up to 30mm A few areas possibly the Central England area a signal of 20mm, the far south/central and parts of Wales a few signals of 20mm, but generally 12-15mm more likely. Have highlighted these zones as a rainwatch on the alert map. Acummulated precipitation data - 00z NAE +30: 00z EURO4 +30: 00z GFS +30: 00z NAVGEM +30: 00z CMC +30: 00z UKMO precipitation - 1200-1800hrs: 1800-0000hrs: 0000-0600hrs: 00z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency (blue falling pressure, red rising pressure) 1500hrs: 0300hrs: My rain alert map for today: (new info added to the color code/key to map bar. The %percentage is risk of event occurring. For example - I have given the level 1 watch areas 25% risk of the 20mm, the 80% risk is for Scotland with H=High risk of disruption and here there is level 3 on my alert map for 30-60mm)