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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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Apologies for the lack of updates in this thread most of the chat/posts has been in the local threads and Atlantic storm threads and I was to unwell to post, to do the alert maps and forecasts.
Recent rain/wind events have very much been a lot to keep up with with everyone involved in the crisis, it must have been very hard work too for the forecasters, I had not seen so many warnings out so frequently.
At this stage I'm not going to input to much and not the alert maps as before, although I might get back to doing them it may only be alert maps for southern counties due to not having time, it is a lot of work going through the model data and making forecasts when there is a lot of weather happening or is going to occur.
2215 Radar image.
A band of rain is moving east through the country along an occluded front with some heavy bursts, some gusty gales too.
This affects overnight and then tomorrow need to watch out for heavy downpours, EURO4 indicates some particularly heavy potent showers across the S-UK Tuesday.
0000-0300hrs.
0600-0900hrs
Accumulated ppn data up to 0000hrs (Tue night) from 3 models -
EURO4:
GFS:
NAVGEM:
Possibly we could have increasing flood problems for some areas over the next 24-36hrs, the ground is very sensitive to rainfall, the ground is so saturated for many areas and the ground water so high surface flooding is likely to happen quickly and don't need a lot of rain to do this.
The water entering rivers very fast. Saturated ground is like when there is solid frozen ground or even hard dry ground nothing can absorb easily.
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On my visits to Staines-Upon-Thames in Surrey over the last few weeks it was difficult to avoid the flood waters, it was really serious in places. And it wasn't only the rivers that flooded roads and housing estates, it was ground water, and the drains were spewing out water it had no where to go but to the surface, nothing really could be done to stop this coming out, such a great pressure forcing the water anywhere it go release.
On my journeys I took some photos so here is a selection all taken at Staines town and the boarders surrounding the main town. All photos are my own.
(have uploaded some impressive clouds too)
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Quick post just adding an alert map here, based on accumulated ppn up to Saturday midnight:
Smaller image size:
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Apologies for not being able to update the thread, usually I do the rain maps with interest and have had to miss doing so due to throat infection, just to tired and weak to do a forecast. But if I did you could probably imagine a lot of yellow even orange/amber on the map!
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Not been on to post updates or in heavy rain watch thread due to the throat infection, feel awful!!!
Got some pics of the recent flooding these photos are (London rd) Staines-Upon-Thames.
The digger here last week now there are (or at least was) on Saturday two digger/jcb's on top of the reservoir pulling up something from the water perhaps highering the banks I don't know just a guess! they were working down towards the Stanwell area, massive reservoir's, someway o looking over the top but not at the moment!
Some time last wk when were affected by one of the downpours was a heavy rain day a drain was leaking here is a pic...
A field that is now far worse than in these pics with the flood water was caused by only the rainfall not by river or lake:
Have some clearer higher quality pictures with the digital of the new lake on the field there..
Amazing yet more storms on the way and the big wild storm starts tonight, looking like a very disruptive wind event including these regions, worst of the winds tomorrow for here it looks like, some torrential downpours too. When I looked at the MO site warnings I was like WOW!!! I see Netweather and UKWW have severe weather warnings out.
Can say exciting but just as much very concerned about the weather. very interesting too!
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Certainly a great concern and also must not forget any snow goes melted into the rivers and streams!
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Just a quick post not time now but lots going on over the next few days. For today widespread spells of showery rain and some prolonged/persistent rain at times, some of the rain heavy. The heaviest rain looks likely over the east of Scotland and probably central Scotland too with some large ppn totals here. Some persistent rain for the SE and it's over Kent that some of the highest falls of rain are indicated but also a pulse of large accumulations over the southeast Dorset area from a line of heavy persistent showers. So most places seeing some rain or showers some heavy downpours.
Sleet and snow likely in places especially the north, but also the south could get some sleet/wet snow mostly the higher ground though (at first...)
Flood risk likely increasing in the worst affected zones due to the saturated ground it doesn't need much too increase the flooding. Generally rain/snow surface water a problem anywhere due to saturated ground especially the south which is most likely to have flooding more easily for this reason or increased flooding, but also the east of Scotland. Rivers and streams likely rising faster with smaller amounts of rain or snow than would normally be the case, and great concern for the days ahead with the threat of wind and rain storms but also intense shower type downpours.
My Alert map to highlight the accumulated ppn/rain up to 6am Thursday.
I have also stated on the map that some sleet and snow could fall within the alert/watch areas, but please note as this is a ppn accm map that is based on the blue charts not snow charts snow could fall out of the alert areas where lighter accumulated ppn is indicated but not enough for rain alert!
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Clouds going up round this way and just noticed a strike just South of London.
Yeah just got a nice snap of an Huge icy anvil and fluffy topped too! (over Heathrow ap way north sky) right now very convective skies building up.. the flow is setting up for some interesting weather I think!
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Looking like a day of widespread chained heavy showers, these lasting into and overnight tonight, some large totals are possible some showers prolonged with a risk of flooding or increased flood problems.
Some areas missing the worst not everyone getting the downpours or at least not to many.
The orange zones (on my alert map) are the high risk areas for the largest accm rain, but not all of the covered zones expected to get the heavy rain totals, within the orange zones some areas seeing up to 20mm, but possibly more and up to 30-40mm perhaps a few spots up to 60mm, this most likely over east of Scotland but perhaps the west of Wales to.
My alert map is based on the accumulated model data but also the areas wheres most persistent showers are indicated. Have done an orange in areas possibly affected by 30-60mm of rain, the lower end of this amount more likely than the higher end.
Areas that could see the heaviest rainfall and accumulated ppn:
Parts of Central Southern, the SE, SW, Wales, the East of Scotland, these zones could see the highest totals up to 6am Wednesday of 20-30mm possibly 30mm+ and up to 60mm (the higher amounts are local totals not widespread)
Have also highlighted other areas with a Watch for up to 20mm but mostly10-15mm more likely though, rain/ppn areas most at risk from this are covering most of England and Wales, other areas of Scotland and Shetland.
Some thundery, possibly sleet, hail. some snow for Scotland.
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Yes the Lifted index just in the Thunderstorm level for the SW today (yellow) wouldn't be surprised to see a right old mix of elements today, low pressure, cold air up there and down here so who know more wild downpours! (in intensity and prolonged nature) did someone mention sleet and hail?....
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The summer 2013 was quite thundery at times here and more night storms than have been over the years, so I think was much better than recent years, possibly a sign things are getting back to 'normal' thundery plumes possibly returning properly, they need to change track more north sending some MCS's right up north too. It's the deep south plumes we haven't been getting.
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Reckon we are in for a good year this year. Already beaten 2013 in some respects!! With SST's above the norm, that should increase the odds of storm potential. In my view, that is the reason along with low pressure that so many storms have occurred so far this winter.
I remember 90's winters being similar to this, and look what summer storms happened back then. They had me running into my parents room they were that scary! That used to happen to me most summers too back in the days!
Difference is were having big thunderstorms during the winter time!!!!
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Was in south Wales this morning and saw a dusting of snow atop of the mountains, hope that's not the only snow I'll see this winter!Precip Weds night clearing south with low moving down to France may have some wintriness. Otherwise, chance of some snow flurries Thursday, blowing off the N Sea, mainly Essex, E London, N/E Kent. Dewpoints progged below freezing by then, so supportive of snow, but flow predominantly dry bar shallow layer above N Sea.
OnThurs at least what does fall would be real snow so I expect some easy dustings from the light stuff at least. if only some stronger instability more moisture/temps, saying that some years things have changed on the day/night with at least some light snow streamers forming!
Interesting week.
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Hi all been to busy to post going to take a look at the rainfall situation, I see there are warnings out for the downpours, hope to do a post on the rain in rainwatch later..
Many photos from the Saturday storm squall and I found one of a said large hail stone. Made an animation/effects image from the hail stone as looked very spooky sitting there on the table! and they didn't say the storms/m-tornadoes/clouds looked like they were something from a Spielberg movie for nothing! ..
(was only a quick effects/frames job if spent more time would have aliens popping out and stuff!!)
Close Encounters Of The Third Kind?
The image here is (not) a cctv video of a (not) strange happening from a large hail stone..
X-file25012014:
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Had a play with one of those dodgy red malicious site warning pages, that came on.....
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What is on the way is **coldmild** yep joined these together, (arrrr be friends!) what I really meant is Atlantic storms usually bring double figures temps(at least at first)... well no not this one and to splash purple all over these regions tonight as soon as the back arrrsss of the rain pulls away (mean back arrrrs in a respectful way with the rain coz we want some snow so shift on plzzzz..) just sayin the cold back edge and air following is very different to what we would normally get....
Really we are looking at potentially heavy snow showers tonight!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Purple/pink=snow maps
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Only have time now to do a post to put on a map. So much going on with the weather got everything possible over the next 24-36hrs at least.
Atlantic storm today bringing widespread heavy rainfall to affect all areas, snow over the north and the wintry risk moves south with the even colder air this evening arriving in the south too.
Gales to severe gale winds south, severe to storm force north-see Atlantic thread.
My alert map here:
Note: my alert map is for rain/ppn and the associated flooding, map based on mostly ppn accm model data up to early hours Mon.
The threads around the forum would keep you updated with the winds and snow with this storm, this is for the rain but have put a few extras on the alert map!
Must put the latest radar from the Met office:
Heavy and prolonged rain/ppn now affecting all of the west and up into the north this moving towards the east through today.
Met office weather warnings:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map
(I'm off now but are be reading the threads on/off, a lot to keep up with today for forecasters!)
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My phone is a few years old! I use the Internet on computers, the mobile used some times when out for reading the forums.
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Have great concerns with the flood situation is set to worsen as more rain on the way.
Something that struck me is the new Environmental Agencies new flood risk map of the reservoirs - http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/default.aspx
New and updated flood maps are now available. The maps show areas at risk from river, sea, reservoir and surface water flooding. Check them out to see if you live or work in an area at risk from floodingI know that if waters breached the banks over the top or even worse...that flooding would obviously happen around and locally, but alarming looking at the map and how wide this can stretch, almost to the outskirts of Heathrow AP from the north side of Staines-Upon-Thames Reservoir if it flooded. Also have they issued these maps because of the current flood situation or were they going to do this anyway? I think as other new options are available they were in the process of doing the new maps, and would take quite some time to do. But has certainly been launched at the right time!
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Can't remember seeing something this active/widespread in January before, at least not recently. Been a thundery winter though, had 4 days of thunder or (distant) lightning this year and could have been 5 if I hadn't gone back to uni, also had thunder days up here before I returned.
Biggest storm in Europe by far.. Savour that for the summer months when all the MCS systems may be just across the water haha
I was just thinking about how much lighting there was and how it kept going for so long and heading southeast!! the tstorms during the Spring/Summer season head up from France and towards the southeast and veer off to the right usually clipping Kent... yet it is January and tstorms head into the SE from the northwest!!!
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The extremely violent squall not long ago went through my area Stanwell (next to Heathrow AP) planes were grounded during this didn't notice any taking off. This was so violent and torrential one of the most severe have experienced, the winds estimated 50-70mph gusts and appeared to have had damaging potential, were very noisy on roof, and trees were violently moving
Also lightning several flashes, and on the back edge, sounded like thunder heard as distance rumbles.
Lots of surface flooding right now.
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Just to add to this I reported in local thread Saturday eve.
Reports of several large trees and many large branches down from the storm squall over the Hersham, Esher areas and up through Byfleet and Weybridge.
Large marble size hail was seen at Hersham/Esher area, was said to have been from fingernail size up to thumbnail, which is pretty rare around Surrey!
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Considering some of the reports coming in of severe damage over huge swathes of the UK, why is the media more concerned with Francoise Hollande's girlfriend?I would have thought this would be big news.
I totally agree with you. As I walk along the road avoiding the sad ranks of people staring at their phones, I despair. I guess the human race are like rats. They'll keep breeding until the food runs out and then they'll turn completely on each other. The Atlantic fronts will survive though!
The weather overpowers everything, nothing can stop what nature throws at us. I do worry what happens if the flood waters (incl ground water) continues to rise. Someone said not long a go what if it was all snow.. well makes us think the thinking behind those movie ideas like day after tmw....
(ppl on mobiles quite normal CB! we all do that and some walking while texting not looking!)
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I took it to mean, the temp difference caused the front to bomb. Probably wrong though lol.
Correct to some degree! imagine the Atlantic Jet, cold north, warm south, middle=heavy weight power storms>>>>driven at 200mph to our shores.... imagine the feature today cold/trough front cold air rushing behind it, milder air ahead clash bang====violent atmospheric disturbances>>>>winds mixed change direction... boom explosive energized squall line......
That was very much more widespread and explosive than expected... the speed of this feature meant rain totals would not expectedly meet warning criteria, for the winds? 60-70mph reported on the data around our regions (others too) maybe these were not expected to be so violent.
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Damage from the severe squall.Reported to me from a very reliable witness to the weather.
Esher/Hersham area (Surrey)
They were driving at the time, violent rain, damaging gusts and streak lightning (as most of us experienced) but marble size hail the larger marble size (estimated)
Several trees down, one on west end lane, another on the Esher hill at Portsmouth rd was explained as exploded like damage, inside of trees scattered around the road. Reported trees down at other locations on their journey, the Byfleet area think said Byfleet rd trees down. Traffic was solid.
Said of my experience and ppl's reports on the forums with the storms, I was indoors, but for those out driving in it must have been scary!! (as mentioned too!!)
Ive not been out today are let you know if find any damage tmw, although the severe gales risk could cause problems tmw anyway...
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Heavy Rainfall and Flood Watch February 2014
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Tobor
There's a band of rain continuing crossing the country tonight some heavy with very gusty conditions or gales so some added local surface water could be an issue in places.
Keeping watch for some heavy showers Thursday but main concern is a potent small feature moving across the south Thursday night/Friday:
The problem from this low for south UK is rainfall (affecting England and Wales) sleet and snow is possible with the system and it is all precipitation falling onto saturated and flooded ground, if the snow does settle if it happens then so something rather different for the south, but also flood problems too, we could be looking at the SE flood zones being hit with quite a bit of precipitation through Friday and possibly Saturday but also other southern areas at risk:
The low could be pulling in more ppn over the SE and EA Friday night:
Early hours of Friday rainfall/snowfall could be affecting in this position from SE to Wales as shown by GFS here:
This is an upcoming cold spell so the rain will be cold the cold could turn that rain to sleet or snow with accm this most likely the hills, but even low levels could see some sleet/snow at least falling.
Thursday eve:
Early hrs Friday:
Friday Afternoon/eve:
The rainfall/ppn is a concern over the next few days, here is Euro4's accumulated ppn data up to Friday eve (18z +48)
Up to 32mm being indicated by the model for parts of S-UK up to Friday evening . The track of the low not set in stone so expect amounts to change and locations affected. Stay tuned to the TV/Radio /web chat.
Flood risk probably increasing for some areas over the next few days, ground water and river flooding ,unfortunately. But the long term outlook using probability is that warmer more settled weather could arrive, the lovely blossom trees are out round here not that this is going to change the weather mind but at least to lets us know Spring is on the way and this can of course bring high pressure..
Tobor.
(if you don't know, I was ElectricSnowStorm)