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ZONE 51

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ZONE 51 last won the day on September 22 2011

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About ZONE 51

  • Rank
    sky watcher

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Interests
    Weather watching and forecasting.
    Music production.
    Art and crafts / painting landscapes/seascapes/clouds.
    Photography/video production and editing, image design.
    Photo editing and digital/image design art. Webdesign.
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost

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  1. NW/BBC/MO have mentioned the risk of thunder in the south UK, anytime is interesting for convective but it's January and is not really chatted about as much as when it's the usual convective seasonal months. Usually it's only a few rumbles anyway but there can be thunderstorms any month. Looking at the GFS I see the lifted index is negative or yellow indicating an unstable air-mass after the rain fronts move through today, bringing heavy downpours of a convective nature later today, overnight and Monday particularly over the SW and South coast possibly moving inland at times. Low pressure is in charge today. My barometer has dropped at least 5 mb since a few hours, it's heading left of the centre as the low heads up. Just had a look around UKWW has chat on the potential. Estofex have some lightning risk SW UK.
  2. Arrived here in Stanwell (next to Heathrow AP south side) .. rain becoming very heavy some very strong winds be getting up soon
  3. Radar map 1530hrs: On this active front some outbreaks of lightning/thunder, very heavy rain, hail, sleet and snowfall risk, gusty 40-50mph gust of wind (on and also around the front), also some active showers after the front too, as seen also on the radar here. Turning cold even very cold feeling. (Image 2 parts joined) (front moving from the west to the east) Radar image used: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  4. BBC, just watched incredible night tornado lit up by lightning!

  5. I think we need to form a new defence system, the usual flood defences can and do work but water is channelled faster and deeper if it's blocked from spreading out, naturally the water wants to spread out as it does over farm fields, or flood plains, where it's blocked is where it affects someone else further down river. There's not much one can do to stop all floods the power of water is incredible and new ideas on how to block the rivers waters from getting into towns and cities are always welcome. Concerning images of that huge 'dartboard' storm developing for mid week this week (or before can change time scale)
  6. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/ - can load on your computers if main site (lappys / deskies version ..) slow to load

    1. ZONE 51

      ZONE 51

      can also load on computers

  7. Merry Christmas! have a good day everyone

  8. Alot to read on NW but I must recommend the Blog on El-Nino., very Interesting! this event could continue to bring some interesting weather. I expect that some arctic cold spells often some severe inbetween Altantic lows/storms, Dec cold spell possible, then late winter easterly/ne flows..

    1. karyo

      karyo

      Which blog is that?

  9. Some fairly new data: enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
  10. I feel that this late autumn/ winters one of the the most interesting to study, more likely then not i feel also one of the top 10 most interesting winters to come
  11. COLD WIND but Not quite a FREEZTERLY! but we may get one eventually

    1. William Grimsley

      William Grimsley

      Those swans give me hope. The earliest arrival for over 30 years!

  12. Have been looking at the data and am thinking about doing a LRF. It's looking very interesting, the developing super strong El-Nino has added to the interest and mainly but not only this has got me to take a closer look at data to write a winter forecast. Very briefly my early thoughts: Before Nov are input some data and info, but early indications are of a very cold spell possibly a big freeze by December and throughout the month. November could be cold and snowy - widespread. On the FAX charts / BBC weather I look out for increasing number of occluded fronts and cold fronts. Indicating more cold air, rather then mild sectors. Flocks of birds (seagull type shape wide wing span slow wing thrusting) in theirs masses have been flying from the northeast over inland south east Eng (seen over my area) recently. I and sure many others noticed this during Oct 2010, before the big freeze of late Nov/Dec. They could be migrating/moving from the cold or developing cold / or sea temps, over Scandinavia. Watching for blocking of Atlantic lows, this create more warmer air if they arrive to many early winter. Looking out for strong high pressure over Scandinavia (scandi high) (both already starting) Sea/ocean temperatures around the south seas of Greenland (north Atl) (the low maker) Sea/ocean temperatures in the Northsea of coast from Britain. (the snow maker) North / East Europe snow cover, heavy snow is due to affect there this week, the more snow there the more the cold here. snow cover build up creates more cold pools making any easterly colder over Britain, the colder air and warmer north seas creates more snow, the snow cover also reflects sunlight. Very few Atlantic lows (less warmth) plus above average east europe snow cover creates alot of cold air.
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