BristolBaggie
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Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
BristolBaggie replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well that's it then! -
Ian F just posted this on the SW thread. Looking good for the Midlands. Wish I was back in the Midlands for Monday! Key uncertainties begin from T+84. It's impossible to gauge outcome on regional level. MOGREPS has snow risk Taunton eastwards for SW/W Country by Monday; WBFL modelling by then considered highly unreliable as for now are UKMO Best Data Tmin/Max as shown via BBC graphics. A concerted W'ly push across all the south Sun night-Mon night only rated 30% prob at present. Rebuild of cold block W'wards into Tues complicates matters enormously. Some folk on forums are doubtless slavishly following/making rash pronouncements based on modelled 850hPa temps as the singular 'snow line' delineation but it's not: the higher Theta-W's will *override* cold boundary layer, offering a very difficult forecast mix ranging from rain-sleet-snow and, moreover, profiles suggestive of freezing rain in places, too. PPN phase algorithms (eg snow charts from EC, GFS, ARPEGE etc) won't synthesise these nuances at all well - yet - due to their granularity and the ongoing output uncertainty at that range. However, currently a fair signal for fronts generally weakening as they run east, and only a minority of ENS presently offer *significant* snow amounts (these in central-E UK where cold air may linger much of the week, whilst W/SW back earlier to average/above average temps). So, fun and games looking likely for my forecast colleagues Sun eve on into Mon, but thankfully I'm not having to deal with this headache until back on shift later Monday!!
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South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat
BristolBaggie replied to Nick L's topic in Regional
Very confusing situation this morning. Can anybody shed some light on the fronts which were going to give snow to western parts Mon/Tuesday. Some posts saying things have changed and no snow expected? -
South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat
BristolBaggie replied to Nick L's topic in Regional
Poor Ian earlier tried to tell us the weather but was let down with his graphics.. Thought he coped with it really well. Live TV can be a risky business!, -
South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat
BristolBaggie replied to Nick L's topic in Regional
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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards
BristolBaggie replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think Fergie's post about snow Midlands north next week has dampened southerners spirits aswell -
Sledges at the ready folks. Please for the 1st time this winter be right.. From Ian F taken from MOD thread Re Monday - yes, Dep Chief confirming likely easterly movement of wintry ppn into some southern-central areas with time (not expected disruptive for those districts at present), but current E4 PPN discrimination highlights Bristol-M4 corridor; parts of Devon etc at greatest risk of what could be disruptive snow/hail/ice issues (because potentially phasing with AM rush hr). I'm not allowed to copy the high-res charts; sorry... but it's an interesting signal. Edited by fergieweather, 2 minutes ago.
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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
BristolBaggie replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think Ian F must have had a quick peek at the ECM before going live on air. He just mentioned the chopping and changing of the models and next week could be either cold or mild -
Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3
BristolBaggie replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
No downgrades at all. From FergieIan Fergusson â€@fergieweather6mW COUNTRY UPDATE 1630GMT Rain turning heavy this eve into tonight. Winds pick-up especially into early hours. Between 3-6am gusts 50-70mph..Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 3mW COUNTRY CONTD... with potential for short phase 80+ mph especially #Somerset from #Burnham up into #Bristol, N Somerset, #Mendips, #B&NESEdited by lfcdude, 12 minutes ago. -
Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3
BristolBaggie replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
It's getting really silly in here mods and very confusing for new members. Some people are writing this storm off based on a couple of runs. Until the met office downgrade this storm on their website we should all take notice of the warnings issued.