BristolBaggie

Any update on potential snow Friday? probably gone down to 5% now lol

Well that's it then!

Damp and mild here in Bristol. When is this cold spell supposed to start? As Jim Royale would say "Cold spell my a@rse"

Ian F just posted this on the SW thread. Looking good for the Midlands. Wish I was back in the Midlands for Monday! Key uncertainties begin from T+84. It's impossible to gauge outcome on regional level. MOGREPS has snow risk Taunton eastwards for SW/W Country by Monday; WBFL modelling by then considered highly unreliable as for now are UKMO Best Data Tmin/Max as shown via BBC graphics. A concerted W'ly push across all the south Sun night-Mon night only rated 30% prob at present. Rebuild of cold block W'wards into Tues complicates matters enormously. Some folk on forums are doubtless slavishly following/making rash pronouncements based on modelled 850hPa temps as the singular 'snow line' delineation but it's not: the higher Theta-W's will *override* cold boundary layer, offering a very difficult forecast mix ranging from rain-sleet-snow and, moreover, profiles suggestive of freezing rain in places, too. PPN phase algorithms (eg snow charts from EC, GFS, ARPEGE etc) won't synthesise these nuances at all well - yet - due to their granularity and the ongoing output uncertainty at that range. However, currently a fair signal for fronts generally weakening as they run east, and only a minority of ENS presently offer *significant* snow amounts (these in central-E UK where cold air may linger much of the week, whilst W/SW back earlier to average/above average temps). So, fun and games looking likely for my forecast colleagues Sun eve on into Mon, but thankfully I'm not having to deal with this headache until back on shift later Monday!!

The MODs need to completely re-think the Model Discussion thread I can see why Fergie has stopped posting in there. There are too many novices in there misinterpreting each model run. It's best to ignore them and follow the experienced posters

Very confusing situation this morning. Can anybody shed some light on the fronts which were going to give snow to western parts Mon/Tuesday. Some posts saying things have changed and no snow expected?

Poor Ian earlier tried to tell us the weather but was let down with his graphics.. Thought he coped with it really well. Live TV can be a risky business!,

Steve Murr's snow chart now looks like this

Has Mr Murr gone into hiding.? He took on the met office and lost this round.

What a depressing BBC 1 forecast at 13:15.;Fairly dry week with odd bits of sleet and snow tues,wed but nothing of any interest or troublesome. What happened to the sliders which were going to produce good falls of snow to some parts?

I think Fergie's post about snow Midlands north next week has dampened southerners spirits aswell

Snowing n St George Bristol!,

Here's Fergie take on the weekend. Looks like the front turning to snow in Belgium, Netherlands and France. Rain for the UK.

[ UKMETO 120hrs . Surely snow for some lucky people in Southern England?

Great runs this morning. Both GFS and ECM show hardly any warm sectors on the front coming in for the weekend. Track of the low still not certain.

Lol Boing Boinging back to the Championship on current form. Dreading Chelsea match Tues night. 150 mile round trip in this weather.

Poor forecast for southern cold lovers. As things stand no SNOW this week apart from hills in the north. 60mm of rain from now until weekend, Roll on spring now.

Sledges at the ready folks. Please for the 1st time this winter be right.. From Ian F taken from MOD thread Re Monday - yes, Dep Chief confirming likely easterly movement of wintry ppn into some southern-central areas with time (not expected disruptive for those districts at present), but current E4 PPN discrimination highlights Bristol-M4 corridor; parts of Devon etc at greatest risk of what could be disruptive snow/hail/ice issues (because potentially phasing with AM rush hr). I'm not allowed to copy the high-res charts; sorry... but it's an interesting signal. Edited by fergieweather, 2 minutes ago.

I think Ian F must have had a quick peek at the ECM before going live on air. He just mentioned the chopping and changing of the models and next week could be either cold or mild

Well said my fellow Baggie. I'm staying in this thread now as the main storm thread is being overrun with stupid posts

No downgrades at all. From FergieIan Fergusson â€@fergieweather6mW COUNTRY UPDATE 1630GMT Rain turning heavy this eve into tonight. Winds pick-up especially into early hours. Between 3-6am gusts 50-70mph..Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 3mW COUNTRY CONTD... with potential for short phase 80+ mph especially #Somerset from #Burnham up into #Bristol, N Somerset, #Mendips, #B&NESEdited by lfcdude, 12 minutes ago.

It's getting really silly in here mods and very confusing for new members. Some people are writing this storm off based on a couple of runs. Until the met office downgrade this storm on their website we should all take notice of the warnings issued.

Huge storm with sheet lighting in Bristol now