Stevetynant
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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Stevetynant replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
and it could be a truly historic event so perhaps a little latitude on this one occasion perhaps -
Newquay, Ceredigion -
All looks pretty positive to me- lets not forget where we've just come from in Spring 2019
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Yup everything washed away but it was nice while it lasted after all the stress when it took so long to arrive last Thursday Nothing in the foreseeable but its still early Feb we've got a good 6 weeks I would guess at the moment
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just started at home- good timing I'm just leaving work
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Nothing at home yet and of Course Newport nothing either - I'm only a few Miles from Andy so hopefully its travelling East and will be here soon enough - is that why Tredegar is struggling at the moment aswel - its obviously not the elevation
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0.3C at home- still plenty cold enough but not a flake yet - John I'm holding you to 15.00 which should tie in with MO :0))
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Tricky one for Parents who are not able to leave work on the threat of snow though - most of us that would be I'm guessing
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Schools are closing in Pontllanfraith - busses coming at 1.30pm apparantly
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Still the right side of freezing at home -0.5C
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Confidence Restored
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Still -2.1C at home - grey sky so no real signs of a significant warm up as yet
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But the BBC site looks like it was updated recently as it was broadly similar to the Meto last night whilst the Met's hasn't changed at all in the last 24hrs - who do we have most faith in? - Actually thinking on it I have more trust in Andy than either of them
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depends who you believe John I think, what it does do is question my confidence in any of the models where things can change so much within 12 hours - Mod thread are seeing a tentative sign of extreme cold from about the 9/10 Feb - so perhaps winter won't end this weekend after all if you have any faith in them that is lol
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BBC Changed from Heavy snow all afternoon to light snow - but on the bright side still hopeful my Amazon Packages will still get through
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I'm still hopeful
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I never knew what they meant by the Carmarthen snow shield until witnessing it myself when travelling home to the Valleys from Newquay in Ceredigion last year. We left Newquay in horizontal blizzard conditions during Beast Mark 2 last year - eventually got to Carmarthen and it was a lovely day - no hint of what was happening everywhere else in Wales- by the time we got to Swansea it was full on Snow Fest again and a go slow on the M4 - Fingers crossed for our snow deprived friends in the West this time :0)
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Now or never I recon for this year John -you'll have a few cm's more than me no doubt but I've booked Friday off to wander about taking photos so fingers crossed
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Met Office are showing Light Snow from Mid day - Heavy snow from 3pm through to Mid night then light snow thereafter - temperature never gets above 1C for the whole period Best chance yet for the Valleys South of the Heads of the Valleys I would think
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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Stevetynant replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thats a pretty bold statement, which I hope is correct - whats the evidence though? -
Model output discussion 14/04/18
Stevetynant replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But some words would be much appreciated by those of us still trying our best to understand - thanks :0) -
Direct sun temperature was +42 degrees in my garden yesterday at 5pm - the evenings are gorgeous and there's no breakdown in sight - 2018 is going to go down as a classic year from a weather perspective I'm sure
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Looking good for the end of this week now and possibly set for a protracted dry spell in the early 20's - what a great year its been
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Has everyone gone into shock in the Wales Group - two weeks of lovely weather?
