johncoolj
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Posts posted by johncoolj
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Thanks for the update. I put a post on the Scottish thread saying that I thought you got the end of November spot on(encouraging us to start earlier than usual and to complete winter ploughing 2 days before thre snow arrived) and I felt that on the farm we had experienced a cooling trend in the last 3 winters and that it would probably carry on this winter. We have had three days now with a maximum temperature of -3c and lows of -10c with about 50 cm of snow on the ground unheard of at the end of November.
hey how do you think this winter will be for east ireland dublin
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http://www.cpc.ncep....OND_NH_2010.gif
Interesting patch of yellow has just popped up - the same thing happened this time last year in fact
http://www.cpc.ncep....OND_NH_2009.gif
Now compare this to what happened at this time during the last proper la nina event
Hey what could that patch of yellow mean ?
more cold here in uk ireland
sorry i dont know much about this
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hey have a look this is a lot diff to joe bs forecast
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This La-Nina might become as strong as it was in 1955-56, this actually lowered the global temperature by 1 degree f. During september this year the S0I (southern ocillation index) reached a high of (+25). this is the highest september index since 1917 when it hit (+29.7)! That period of strong la-nina global temps dropped by 1.2degrees f ,between 1915-1917,
good posts
hope your correct
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have a look at this very cool indeed
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Don't think the UK has ever seen an Arctic blast bringing -25c, when temps like that are recorded they are in Scotland and usually under clear skies and snow fields in an Easterly blast. Definitely a bit of lieing through teeth going on there.
they should have said -2
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Looks the same to me not much difference from what I can see, unless I am missing something?? Slight improvement over the North coast of scotland at t144hrs but probably just down to surface winds from low pressure
Yep no diff at all still no flow to uk or ireland
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Maybe a while away, but looking a tad nippy in the Highlands!
i doubt it will be that cold
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Netweather was wrong with last years forcast as most people where so id take this one with a pinch of salt does not take much skill to predict a drier then normal winter it been dry here in Ireland Dublin for past year has been 80 percent less rain
also what netweather is saying is way diffrent to joes b winter update
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I have read links that imply that the jet interacts and meanders with the stream (I can post them if you like) therefore it should follow that in the event of a weakened current the jet would go south. It seems to tie in with the tendency this year of a southerly tracking jet.
yes plz post the links
thanks blitzen
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wow looks like next week will have some nice cold in uk and ireland maybe even snow
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We saw fanastic aurora on Monday night, got great pictures.... remember where we live, there is no other human light all the way to the north pole.. Just darkness.
lucky you id love to see them
can you post the pics
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If the N A C is weak do you think it could mean less weather from the atlantic.
I wonder if it been weaker means the jet will go more to the south and the polar jet will be over uk a lot more then normal
seems to look more like that now and the polar jet is the strongest jet there is and it gains more power in winter
Just seems odd the weather here in Dublin Ireland seems more like late nov then oct to me
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[interesting from the Japanese...
DJF
Precip
Reduced: 61% of original size [ 660 x 450 ] - Click to view full imageTemp
Reduced: 61% of original size [ 660 x 450 ] - Click to view full image -
Joe was spot on. He said most of the UK and Ireland would be cold but not AS cold as mainland Europe and that's exactly what happened.
no he dident he has normal amounts of snow for ireland which was wrong Joe laminate floori's snowfall amount model:
Reduced: 74% of original size [ 549 x 435 ] - Click to view full image look ireland and norway he has as normal Europe.<P itxtvisited="1">
look above he was wrong here too normal temps for uk and ireland wrong looking above you can see joe b was not correct at all
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I don't think that we'll be having a 'blowtorch' winter this time...
I think joe could be wrong on this years winter
uk and ireland will get a winter like last year
even if you look at his forcast for last year he said most of Ireland and Uk wouldent be that cold and he said normal amounts of snow so he was wrong with last years one too BUGS ME WHY PEOPLE SAY HE WAS SPOT ON LAST YEAR WHEN HE WAS NOT AT ALL
THE ONLY PERSON I KNOW WHO GOT THE I WINTER CORRECT LAST YEAR WAS pyrotech
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Is joes forecast up yet?
If you mean joe basterdi he will have his winter euro out on oct the 20th
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The link below will take you to the Laymans Sunspot Count which tries to mimic the methods of old to give atruer comparison which definetly shows a similarity to cycle 5 which was dalton
Cheers jonboy thats a great website
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Is it really a massive difference though? The north Atlantic Current has and always will fluctuate, it is perfectly normal for long periods of time to see high or low levels. Has this been happening for decades? No. Until we see a very long period of time (and I mean 30-50+ years) can we then start questioning.
I have read that sunspots or lack of can effect it and they effect the jetstream too it happend in the last mini ice again
i think more like 1 -2 3 years 30 years seems a bit long
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http://i82.photobuck...urr20090820.png
A reminder of what things look like last year from a post earlier in the thread. There is clearly a massive difference.
In comparison to now
Yep big diff there
yet people on this website are saying its bullonions
how can they say what you have just posted is bull
it clearly is a massive difference
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Blitzen, fantastic chart of atlantic flow rates.... or lack of BTW
We could have a game of spot the gulfstream and none of us would win!
Rapid onset of significant cooler periods is possible given the evidence that exsists if you are able to trawl through it. If you take a look at pollen and sediment anaylsis it can point to quite significant rates of cooling.... and at the end warming again.
However we have a whole forum to discuss stuff to do with the past ice ages.
Think of ot this wat if ENSO events can have a massive impact on the planets climate, why cant a breakdown of the gulfstream cause a cooling? If it isnt there, it cant keep us warm... SST around the north west coast of Scotland are down on what happened last summer.
What is pending is a definite slow down of the gulfstream, you cannot deny it, as it is plain to see from Blitzens post.
The question that we should all be discussing is why the slowdown?
I think the lack of sunpots maybe part of the cause of the slowdown in gulfstream
what id like to know is if it has slowed which i think it has how will i effect the uk and ireland or will it at all could last winter be a sign of things to come
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So what happen after 2005 , its started upagain ?
Nope dont think it did it has been getting weaker since the 90s in 2005 was weak then too just seems to be even worse now since around last dec
i think it has to do with sunspots.
I would say it will stay weak till the sunspots come back again strong
around the year 2030
mind you thats only what i think im no expert and im sure many here will not agree with what iv just said
I bought this book you should buy it its good
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Frozen-Britain-Gavin-Cooke/dp/1844549895
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I have always wondered if in the mini ice age there telescopes would maybe not see the tiny sunspots we see so if that is the case maybe we are in a dalton minimum or even a Maunder now .
Am i correct in thinking this or am i totally wrong its just could are telescope technology be picking up sunspots they couldent esp in the 1700s when there where none for a few years i just dont understand how they can compare todays sunspots to mini ice ages when there telescopes could not be very good .
ive read some people say some of the sunspots they count should not even be counted cause there too small is this true
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Great catch CH. For a minuite there I was really worried.
Gratefully yours,
Paul
theres no doubt its not reaching the uk like it was this time last year
Reduced: 61% of original size [ 660 x 450 ] - Click to view full image
look ireland and norway he has as normal Europe.
look above he was wrong here too normal temps for uk and ireland wrong 
Winter 2010/2011 Part 3
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
from the models i see it looks like a reload of cold air over uk and ireland but it seems to miss west ireland
am i reading them wrong any views from the experts on here
sum show -8 over uk yet +4c on we of ireland