Jason T

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About Jason T

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    Grey hair and Wrinkles is not age,Its the bloody kids
  • Birthday 18/12/70

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Interests
    Footy,Darts,Cooking, Landscaping. Love cold snowy winters, and hot summers with cracking storms.
  • Weather Preferences
    WINTER 2013/2014, Will be HOT topic (MAYBE)

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  1. Well I can honestly say I am more than happy with ecm continued trend and it's persistents. What ever happens a good wintry spell is due to start. I am confident plenty more eye opener output in a short space of time to come. Compared to the last two to three previous winters it's looking pretty darn good. Ecm could even be more jaw dropping tomorrow morning.
  2. Here you go JeffC. Hopefully this will explain the answer you need.
  3. I think it has to be said that finally a well deserved pattern change is here. So far for this winter period the models have just shown what's been quite extraordinary in the way of Temps but the Bi has had its more than fare share of Atlantic onslaughts. Any model output showing Winter for us is always a nail biter. I think that maybe even model forecasting has had to have short sharp shock to its systems in the way that winter is actually going to take place. We could be in for a shocker.
  4. Hi All, Well Well..The excitement really begins. For those that like to go compare so to speak. Excellent link to diff model postage stamp time frames, Also 3d jet stream/Wind map global. Winter is about to embrace us all. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=1&ech=54&size=1 http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=1.73,49.05,562
  5. While since I posted in here, Question is why is it so hard for us here in the UK, To achieve a Cold flowing Winter compared to either sides of the Pond, East and West. Apologises if this is a thicket request, I am just very curious as to why. Obviously the PV is a big player, But it is very frustrating when at times we seem to be so near yet so far in all output and data. Many Thanks.
  6. El Niño monitoring system in failure mode.News Release Jan 2014. Please follow link to read full article.Interesting read. http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-monitoring-system-in-failure-mode-1.14582
  7. Crazy Weather Forecasters to Be Fined for Inaccuracies? 16th July 2012 Dutch councillors want to fine their weather forecasters for false predictions because they say tourism is being negatively affected. Dutch councillors want to fine weather forecasters for false predictions. ''Last week it was really good weather over most of the country but the weather forecasts were full of heavy rain and thunderstorms, so people stayed home.'' The local government officials believe their weather forecasters have recently been inaccurately predicting poor weather, including heavy rain and thunderstorms, on too many occasions and it is impacting negatively on seaside resorts. Joep Thonissen, head of Recron, the Dutch tourist attraction association, is frustrated that the reports are badly affecting tourism in the country. He said: ''Last week it was really good weather over most of the country but the weather forecasts were full of heavy rain and thunderstorms, so people stayed home.'' 0
  8. big pattern change for the USA. There date is the same target as ours 15/01/12 Historic Pattern Change to Usher in Cold Arctic Air & Storm Potential in 8-10 Days It has been nearly one month since meteorological winter has began, but we have seen little cold, and a snow drought for most areas. Portions of the Great Lakes cities are down nearly 10inches. That is soon to change as one shot of air is expected to come in Wednesday-Thursday and the next but much stronger punch of arctic air is set to arrive next weekend. Either or, these snow drought totals may be erased due to this pattern change… Storm Central is predicting 2-3 Major Storms (Not necessarily winter storms) to affect the United States by the end of January. Back in December, we explained in great detail the affects of a AO and NAO on the United States. Surprisingly, neither one of those patterns are set to make a strong negative affect on portions of the United States. A negative EPO or Eastern Pacific Oscillation is due to turn negative after being positive for the past month. In combination with a Negative AO, or Arcitic Osocilation, you could say that the majority of the United States is in for a cold car ride for the remainder of January, no pun intended. As forecast by Storm Central’s Staff just over a month ago, we stated that the major pattern change would change in Mid to Late January and it is sure too do that. A Negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) turns negative when a strong High Pressure is set to build over Southwest Alaska. That turns the Jet Stream winds up and over the Alaskan High and surges the cold air south. The Negative AO, or Arctic Osculation is going to re enforce the cold air south from Canada. Due to the fact you have a Negative EPO and AO at the same time, you will have the following affecting some regions of the United States: -Below Average Temperatures some 10 to 20 degrees. -Numerous (every 2-3 days) Alberta Clippers -Cut off Low Pressures to turn into a storm potential. -Mountain Snow -Severe Storm Potential With this active pattern, their is virtually no areas that can be dry. Currently, we are in a nearly east to west Northerly Jet Stream. We have not seen a major storm to affect the United States in just over a week. In 7-9 Days, this pattern is set to flip dramatically which has historical characteristics. Most areas have not seen High’s in the teens or 20′s so it is going to be a wake up call for many locations. <<< Current Jet Stream Pattern Mid January Jet Stream Pattern>>> So, Breaking it down, here is what to expect. The Jet Stream pattern is the divergence between cold and warm temperatures but note that is the peak of the dip and not an everyday at every minute shape. With the Jet Stream pattern dipping so far south in the west, that is due to keep the majority of the Cold air in the West and Central locations. One wild card which keeps noting in the ever changing NAO Index’s is that if the NAO Index were to go negative. If that were to occur, nearly the whole United States would see below average temperatures for quite some period. -Most locations above that blue line will see temperatures 5-20 degrees below normal. -In the South east, if a strong storm were to ride up the northeast, enough warm air would be in place to cause Severe Weather. -South western locations are going to wet with seasonable temperatures. -East Coast will see temperatures just at average or just below.-Western States will see average to just below average temperatures. -Core of Cold will be situated in the North central and north west where Alberta clippers are a likely hood. Another big issue that I am going to touch on that is with pattern change, odd things happen. Storm Central’s very own has noted a January Ice Storm for since early December and with pattern changes, that can occur. Also, with this type a pattern, northern locations will see more Alberta Clippers than usual that will place down 2-5 inch snow amounts. The East Coast from Chicago to New York has to be on Storm Watch heading into the end of the month as once again, 2-3 major storms are a potential to affect these locations.
  9. THEN THERE IS THE CLOSING CHAPTER FROM MR MADDEN. Hmmmmm...? 5th January 2012 http://www.guardian....e-change-denial The article above immediately starts out in defence of the Met Office and the hostility they received for their incorrect 2009 summer forecast. The coming summer is 'odds on for a barbecue summer' http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/summer2009 The author then chooses to cleverly emphasise on quotes and newspaper headlines to make people question my credibility. However in a way I can understand this in regards to the newspaper headlines, and this is when I should be 100% clear about what actually happened with all them newspapers. The truth is that I did not write or have any influence on any of those newspaper headlines, I did not even speak to one newspaper editor or journalist, the quotes was simply taken from 'updates' on Exacta Weather, yet they appeared in almost every British national newspaper. Seem strange to anyone else? Imagine how I felt. Now at first I was overwhelmed and ecstatic at the national coverage and thought people would recite the quotations from within the article from myself and not the headlines that was used to sell the newspapers. So as you can see, I did not seek no publicity whatsoever as the author suggests. I also never made any financial gains from any of those newspaper headlines, although I am pretty certain that the newspapers did. So let's review one of those articles from the Daily Mail on the 20th September 2011 (Britain to be hit by SNOW in October... Forecasters warn early winter is on way) http://www.dailymail...ly-October.html It begins with James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said: ‘I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. OK, so this was part of my autumn update and once again this was taken from the Exacta Weather website, I did not speak to any newspaper editor or journalist. We did also see some moderate to heavy snowfalls in CERTAIN parts of the UK during October and November, and this is why included this within my autumn update. The Daily Mail article then continues with 'I expect December, January and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfall occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK. In all fairness and as an honest forecaster, my forecast has been well off the mark to date, and there has since been some revisions to my forecast for the remainder of winter and November. This is a little unusual for myself, as this is the first time I have ever had to seriously amend any of my forecasts. In my 8th November 2011 update I promptly explained that there had been a delay in some of these pattern changes, and although the latter part of November and into early December turned out roughly as expected, December as a whole was inaccurate. The Daily Mail article then continues with ‘Huge swirly low-pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air.’ He added that Scotland and the North would face the worst weather, including possible ‘blizzard-like conditions’. Now although we have seen frequent low pressure systems, we have not seen the teleconnections enter a dominantly negative phase, as I expected. The NAO and AO were both dominantly negative during the summer months of 2011, and as I have stated before, this had an important bearing on my winter forecast. We have however seen the 'potentially damaging gale force winds' which I forecast before any other forecaster or weather organisation, and I firmly believe that this is due to some major 'long term' changes, in the major natural factors that I consider within my forecasts, and how they influence the 'long term' pattern of storm tracks. I also stated in the same update in which all the newspapers extracted them quotes from that “The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winterâ€yet not one of them decided to use this. Had I of had any influence on them newspaper articles, then I can guarantee that I would have included this part of my forecast too. The Daily Mail article then continues with a number of incorrect quotes from other forecasters, including the Met Office, and not one of them mentions anything about strong winds in winter: Netweather forecaster Paul Michaelwaite has also predicted ‘widespread’snowfall as early as November. He told the Daily Express: ‘Over the past four years November snow has not been rare at all, and with temperatures below the average there is the chance of some widespread falls.’ Meanwhile, The Met Office has said that below average temperatures in October mean there is a chance of upcoming overnight frosts, which would be seen predominantly in the Midlands and south-east. And Weather Services International agreed that October, November and December would be hit with temperatures approximately two degrees lower than the average.WSI’s chief meteorologist, Dr Todd Crawford, told the Express: ‘We currently expect the coldest temperatures to be confined to western Europe.’ OK, so let's head back to the recent Guardian article. Now I don't mind taking some flak for getting a forecast incorrect, in fact I would probably say this is all part and parcel of weather forecasting. I however won't be made a scapegoat for the ineptness of the professional forecasters. I will also not be used as some pawn in a political and agenda driven article from a loyal warmist, because I dare to question the authors beliefs on man-made climate change. There is a lot that the author also conveniently fails to mention in the article. For example, he chooses to emphasise only on the 2009 BBQ summer that the Met Office forecast incorrectly, yet conveniently forgets to mention that this was a long line of recent blunders from them and their supercomputers in terms of long range forecasting. He also conveniently forgets to mention what I forecast when these mistakes was made. Let's take last winter for example when the £33 million supercomputer foresaw a mild winter, yet we experienced the coldest December in 100 years with widespread heavy snowfall as forecast by myself. I even contacted the professionals and told them to issue a severe weather warning, yet no forthcoming warning was issued. Check out my previous forecasts and the tweet on my twitter page from the 31st August 2010 here. http://www.telegraph...-last-year.html http://www.telegraph...-forecasts.html Then there is the winter of 2009/10 when the professionals once again foresaw a mild winter, yet we experienced widespread heavy snowfall throughout December, January, and February. The UK winter mean temperature came in at -2.0C below-average and once again as forecast by myself. I wonder why the author chose not to mention any of this? http://www.telegraph...Met-Office.html Another example that he uses to discredit another forecaster within the article is an incorrect 2011 summer forecast, yet he fails to mention that the professionals issued nothing, or that I forecast this period with 100% accuracy and before any other forecaster. As it stands I did actually respond to the author of the article before it was submitted online, for which I have still not received a response either. Now this is actually starting to get a bit personal, but I was back home for the festive period, and although I made time for the usual updates and weather warnings, it was impossible to work my way through the 700+ emails that I had received in this time period until recently. I may well be an undergraduate with a computer, but my computer or my methods never cost £33 million of the tax-payers money, and it has proved far more accurate too. In regards to the comment about an independent audit from the author of the article, well this is starting to get serious when a national newspaper is asking me questions like this. Anyone is free to view any of my past forecasts and pass their own judgement on what I have forecast, when the professionals and computer models have been consistently wrong. Please note that none of my posts are ever deleted and remain intact on my blog and youtube channel. I really can't help it, if I have only had positives to highlight upon in my lifespan as an amateur forecaster, and even before the recent article was published, I did actually state in an update on Christmas Day, that my recent forecast errors would also be highlighted on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. The fact that my forecast has turned out wrong to date, proves to me that my methods of analysis are not foolproof, and the long term aim is to refine my methods to become even more accurate in the future. In fact, an article from early 2010 and from the same author titled Britain's cold snap does not prove climate science wrongalso states that: “This is called weather, believe it or not, it is not always predictable and it changes quite oftenâ€Hickman and Monbiot (2010) http://www.guardian....P=ILCNETTXT3487 It is also a major relief to know that no-one has had to really suffer this winter so far, unlike last year when there was many unnecessary deaths, as many was unprepared for what happened. Surely it is better that we are over-prepared for harsher winters, especially as I firmly believe that they will become more commonplace in our near future. Now the author of the article has made a lot of incorrect assumptions in regards to myself, and maybe he has made these same assumptions in regards to future climate change too. I am not dependant on false science as an income stream, and I don't have a warmist driven agenda, which I actually happened to believe myself at one stage in my life. I am simply telling the truth and will continue to do so, it is up to yourself as to whether you choose to follow or believe what I have to say. One thing is certain though, I certainly won't try and make your mind up for you, unlike others. Certain people are trying to use one incorrect forecast of mine to justify their own mistakes, and after reading that recent article and all the confusion of the last few months, I am really starting to wonder how long it will be before the Met Office becomes privatised and I become a direct competitor. Why? Because I issue long range forecasts and they don't, and the plan will be to justify this once the transition has taken place. How ironic and fitting too, a Guardian article below from 2009 before the Conservatives come to power titled “Conservatives may privatise Met Officeâ€. http://www.guardian....vatives-defence ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1st January 2012 Wintry& colder feel to the start of the new year The start of 2012 will see some wintry showers falling as snow across parts of northern Scotland during new years day. This wintry theme will continue as we head into Monday, with further wintry showers across Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northwestern parts of the UK. Some of these wintry showers will also fall as snow across higher and lower ground in these parts, leading to some accumulations of snow in places. There may even be the risk of some snow showers across higher ground in some areas further south. Tuesday will see yet another area of low pressure arrive, bringing with it some strong winds and wet weather across many parts of the UK. Some of these showers will initially remain wintry across Scotland and some northern regions of the UK during Tuesday, before a brief return to milder conditions across many parts of the UK. I stated on the 2ndSeptember 2011 that we could expect: “a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and WINTER.†Ialso stated in my last update on the 25th December 2011 that: “January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.†“February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.†This is currently still how I see things developing throughout January and into February at present. Although the worst of the strong winds, cold, and snow for January, is more likely to occur from around mid-month onwards. There will also be some interspersions of milder weather at times throughout January, and areas further South are the most likely to see the best of these conditions. I am currently expecting the mean Central England Temperature (CET) to come in at near or below-average for January. Any further updates will be posted accordingly.
  10. Sunday 25th December 2011 The mild weather that the models predicted for Christmas Day won over in the end, dashing any hopes of a white Christmas across many parts of the UK. I generally don't tend to pay much attention to what the models are saying when I issue my forecasts, which has proven successful for me within my past forecasts to date, when the models and others organisations have proved inaccurate. (See Accuracy Page Here) However, my chosen methods of analysis have proven to be unsuccessful on this occasion. This forecasting error will also be reflected upon in the final winter outcome and placed on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. I will however continue to use the same methodology that has served me pretty well to date. I will also incorporate any new aspects of relevance from my future research into my forecasts, of which I will always offer as a FREE long range weather forecast/forecast to the general public. I have had a large quantity of emails asking me if the last two winters were simply one-offs, due to the milder conditions that we have been experiencing so far this winter? Unfortunately the last two winters were not just one-off situations. Now although this statement will take some time to come to realisation for the warmists of this world, whilst they revel in their milder Christmas conditions. The next two to three decades will see the UK experience much more frequent and harsher winters. This is also one particular area that I have strongly emphasised on since 2009, and that I will also continue to emphasise on more in any of my future updates and findings. As I have stated many times before, I never expected December to be the worst month of this winter in meteorological terms. I have also stated that I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February. January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south. February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland. As I also stated in my 2nd September 2011 update that we could expect “a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and WINTER.†I also stated on the same date that “Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South.†Although confidence is medium range with the factors in Italics at present, these could also prove to be a frequent feature at times within the remainder of winter, and this is why I included this within my update on the 2nd September 2011 (before any other forecaster or weather organisation). The winners of the white Christmas 2011 competition, will shortly be publicly announced on Exacta Weather and contacted accordingly. There was over 5000 entries in total! James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster) ExactaWeather.com Published: 25th December 2011 (22:18) GMT
  11. ANOTHER UPDATE FROM MR MADDEN....He is not giving up. Sunday 18th December 2011 White Christmas 2011 and Widespread Snow After the first significant falls of snow across many parts of the UK this week as forecast (including the south), I am expecting these conditions to become more prominent as we head into next week, and in the run up to and during the festive period. Over the next 10 days, widespread snowfall will start to become a prominent feature across many parts of the UK including the south. The snow will be particularly heavy at times and lead to lasting accumulations at many lower levels too, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, northern England, and eastern England. As I stated in my 4th December update I am expecting things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder weather with widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the latter part of next week and in the run up to and during the festive period. The temperatures in Scotland and many Northern regions are likely to dip below negative double figures at times within this period in the evenings. A white Christmas is also looking increasingly possible across many parts of the UK, especially more so in the regions of Scotland and Northern England in terms of any possible accumulations on the actual day. The following MSN article from the 25th Novemberalso stated What is The Big Question? Christmas lights have been switched on all over the country; mince pies are now part of a staple diet, so the annual obsession of foraging for clues to predict the weather intensifies as people inevitably want to know will we have a white Christmas? Madden predicts we will, although heavier snowfall and low temperatures will stun the country throughout January and February. I also made a definition of what a white Christmas officially consists of, as snow showers could literally be possible anywhere within the UK, although I have emphasised that the regions of Scotland and Northern England are the most likely to see any notable accumulations on the actual day. All of the following statements still stand and were made before any other professional meteorologists or weather organisations, who are still being noncommittal on the outcome at this late stage, and as they will continue to do so, until a few days before. May I take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and thank you all for reading my forecasts and your continued support. Don't forget to enter our free white Christmas competition to win yourself a free scientific weather station/junior weather station kit.
  12. Oh well thats it, winter is cancelled...... Gritters ready for winter Comments | Thousands of tons of salt have been stockpiled to keep traffic moving on Kent's roads this winter. Staff at depots on the Henwood Industrial Estate, Ashford, and at Stanford, near Hythe, are ready to swing into action when icy conditons strike. Kent County Council has more than 20,000 tonnes of salt at eight depots and a fleet of more than 60 salting lorries. Cllr Bryan Sweetland, cabinet member for highways, said: "The past two years have seen some of the harshest winter weather for three decades and we are well prepared for similar weather this year." KCC salts about a third of the county's A and B roads and around 15% of other important parts of the network. It treats about half of the entire 5,000 mile road network. Smaller vehicles can help clear roads not on main salting routes when an area is particularly badly hit. Spencer Palmer, KCC's head of highway operations, said in addition to the salting lorries, 180 farmers have been provided with snow ploughs to keep key rural roads open. In severe weather, crews will work round the clock. Visit KCC's website for details of salting routes and other information about the council's winter service. Monday, November 28 2011