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staplehurst

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  1. How do you mean? No storms are / were expected in Cambridgeshire today
  2. It's more an issue with the GFS physics than the fact it's a global model per se - this issue tends to feed into high-res models that use the GFS for its boundary conditions, such as WRF and NMM, so even though they are higher-res models they also have a habit of being too keen on developing showers in the same situation. Several other global models that have the same resolution as the GFS are pretty much dry today.
  3. I've looked at the potential but decided not to issue anything - it really is just the GFS producing anything, all other models are practically dry. Some decent CAPE, but virtually no shear, dry looking profiles too. As you say, if anything did develop it would be pulse-type rather than anything organised, and hence relatively short-lived. So some convection may bubble up in SE England, but will likely struggle to gain sufficient height to produce very much - GFS has a habit of overdoing these marginal risks due to its issues with excess moisture.
  4. Lewis took some photos and videos, and uploaded them here: https://www.facebook.com/lewis.blythe.1/posts/10155386124505913
  5. Indeed, here's the evolution of the forecast for Saturday. In general, everything developed about 50 miles further west than earlier expectations, and hence no point keeping a 'wrong' forecast online when nowcasting would suggest the risk had shifted slightly west.
  6. Worth noting that up until now, no MDT risks have been issued - and hence all forecasts so far have suggested storms are more likely to not happen than to happen (SLGT = 30-45% chance). There are very few forecasts issued in this country that carry high confidence, and the greatest uncertainties are often mentioned in each forecast text. We make mistakes, we're human - the point is to always verify your forecast to see if it went to plan or not, and if not try and find out what went wrong to ultimately avoid that mistake in the future. Two examples from the past month or so (15th March vs 3rd April) where the forecast didn't quite go to plan on one, but succeeded quite well on the other. (Black dots are the detected lightning strikes during each forecast period). In the case of the former, a post-event analysis was posted explaining what went wrong >> .
  7. For those concerned, compared the 06z EURO4's expected snow accumulation for 17:00 today (this includes sleet too, and is mm water equivalent rather than pure cm) vs how much in total may have accumulated by tomorrow afternoon. You have to take into account any melting that has already, so its possible it is over-estimating totals in some places right now
  8. maybe in this event, but remember 10-11 Dec?
  9. Adjusting the 00z Norderney tephi for a 6C with a dewpoint of -4C (representative of North Sea conditions today) gives you convective cloud top of about 2km (6,700ft ish). Inversion then present at this level, with very dry air above. Wiating for the upper cold pool to approach this afternoon/evening to help moisten the profiles a bit more and increase the convective depth. But yes, inversion could be playing a role with the radar, as can blowing snow and the snow itself make the radar over-read the intensities.
  10. Still +2C on the north Norfolk coast too
  11. Easter bunny about to pounce down the North Sea!
  12. It won't matter what radar display you use, it's all the same data from the Met Office (precipitation type will be done independently using model data to determine whether it's rain, sleet or snow etc)
  13. I'm not sure Norfolk was ever predicted to have large amounts of snow? East Norfolk could get quite a bit when the flow swings back E then SE on Wednesday morning with the deep instability around
  14. ARPEGE did well, many days in advance, to consistently pick up the swathe of 80-85mph gusts in Norfolk. Admittedly it stepped back a little during yesterday in its peak wind strengths.
  15. They said snow was possible to low-levels in the heaviest precipitation, but unlikely to settle below 100m
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