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looking at the radar it looks as if you and Mapantz have your own personal streamer - a very narrow but continuous stream of showers. Will be interesting to see what rainfall totals come from it. Overcast here but not currently raining

Well spotted StuieW I hadn't seen the JMA but that Jet Stream pattern is more what I would have expected / looked for given what is happening up aloft. If nothing else, that low if moved a bit further South will help nudge other bits of the jigsaw into more interesting positions. OK - verry big IFFs!

Just lose the Dodo's head off the eastern end of that Jet Steam and we would be in an interesting spot - I just wonder if the Jet might flick South rather than North given the changes up aloft? I have seen bigger changes a week out. Certainly that big low has the power to make a dramatic change. Another excellent and well explained post Tamara earlier- fully consistent with her other posts. Patience required!

Yes and the levels largely unpopulated (for a good reason). I have a link to a summary of historic flooding events which makes interesting reading. We think that humans can engineer solutions to natural phenomena. Well perhaps we can but can we afford to do so? Many moons ago, when studying geomorphology, the wisdom was that many of UK's land features could only have been formed during periods of very significantly greater rainfall than we see today. Also that this must have occurred in (geologically) recent past. Humans are a very optimistic and tend to ignore events of just a few years ago, let alone earlier generations. At least we are now able to spread risks associated with crop failures over the entire world as not so long ago this winter would have resulted in famine for many people. Having said all that there is little doubt in my mind that deforestation has as big, if not bigger, effect on climate change than the burning of fossil fuels and it is well known that arable farming directly causes loss of soils on hilly ground.

Well that must be 'D3' then, soon to be' D3+1'? Hope all goes smoothly for you despite my IMBY wish for 30+ cm of snow and a hard freeze to follow ! (very optimistic wish however so i think night time ice will be the bigger worry)

John, I like and respect your clear and well reasoned approach to commentaries on the model outputs. As you say each are entitled to their own 'take' and indeed to point out the reasons for their differences from those of others. I do however find name- calling distasteful and generally ignore the musings of those who are not prepared to present their arguments impersonally. The truth is that it is proving very frustrating trying to spot if and when cold winter weather might actually arrive this year and I for one am watching the Stratosphere thread with interest to see how changes there relate to surface wether conditions downstream. It appears that this year might be a very good test of whether SSW drives pattern change or is an early indicator of such change.

market day in town today, just bought a new toboggan and a huge pile of toys in the sales. Have put the toys into the pram. Now ready and waiting!!!

Yes, you beat me to it. Same concern, different prompt.

My cousin and her husband farm mussels in Maine. In the sea the mussels are fine but each day he has to push himself out over the ice in his Kayak, board the mussel barge (a converted landing craft) clear inches of ice from the critical bits of running gear and then drive the boat forward full throttle up and over the ice as an icebreaker before reaching clear water. Not a job I would fancy at this time of year, so actually glad I am not there! The community in Maine all get together and clear their own snow and ice, no griping that others are not doing it for them. Altogether a different life, perhaps we could learn a bit from them!

Well if that (prolonged rain) materialises it could prove to be the final straw for many in Dorset (and doubtless parts of Somerset too). The rivers are now truly at their limits and, being largely ground water fed, it will take quite a time for river levels to drop appreciably. Meanwhile any additional rain will cause these normally 'mild' rivers to spate in an unaccustomed way. If Noah were here, even he might engage Baldrick to suggest a cunning plan! Lets hope the high pressure builds quickly and then holds for a few weeks, otherwise the outlook is very stark indeed for people who live and work in the vales and valleys. Edit : MetO update just issued appears to place main areas of rain away to the E and W of Dorset, perhaps we are being spared for the time being (IMBY)!

Were there any kitesurfers down on the Causeway this morning? LoL

Has it made landfall yet? Some lightning showing on radar also so could be quite active.

Trying to work out where you mean, are you in Wareham?

No, I think there are some confusing figures being mixed here. The short answer is that the normal tide height at Barmouth tomorrow would be about 1.5 metres above Ordnance Datum. The difference being that the Admiralty use a different datum for seafarers and tide tables to the datum used by Ordnance Survey for land mapping. Basically sailors do it differently to the army as one tries not to hit the ground while the other prefers not to get their boots wet! If you are really interested, the following longwinded explanation sets out (a bit crudely) where the differences arise. Eating a bowl of prunes may be time better spent for those otherwise inclined to explore the detail ;-) Tide levels are normally described relative to a datum set at Newlyn which relates to the lowest astronomical low tide level at that point. I.e the sea bed below that level would not normally become exposed above water. This datum is really set to help navigators judge whether there is sufficient water above a certain point to stop their boat going aground. High tide will always be significantly higher than that level and the height it will reach at any location depends upon the effects of the seabed and shoreline relative to the incoming tide, before any allowance made for the effects of air pressure and of wind. In some places the tidal range (low to high tide levels) is considerably greater than others due to the land funnelling the tide as it comes in and out. Barmouth would ordinarily have a low tide height tomorrow of 0.7m above datum and a high tide height of 5.6 m above datum without the added effects of air pressure and wind ( so called astronomical tide heights). In other words a range from low to high tide of 5.6 - 0.7 = 4.9 metres. This is due to it being a high tide (so called 'Spring Tide') anyway as there is a new moon (would also occur with a full moon). At other times it might be somewhere nearer to 3.7m height (2.1m range) during the less high 'neap tides' associated with 'half moon' phases. Environment Agency are interested in things above sea level and use Ordnance Datum, which is different and is based on mean sea level (mid tide height between high and low water states). So if the normal predicted range of tide height at Barmouth tomorrow based on Admiralty charts is 4.9 metres this would be half of that to each side of Ordnance Datum equating to 2.45m above Ordnance Datum. If Environment Agency are stating 3.92 then i would read this as being 3.92 - 2.45 = 1.47 metres higher than normal for that tide. This 1.47 being due to low air pressure 'sucking' the water up and the further effects of wind 'heaping water' up against the UK shore line. On top of this will be the effects of wave height which can cause water to splash over the top of defences. If the actual wave height is (say) 3 metres (top of crest to bottom of waves trough), again half of that height will be above the 'calm water height' meaning that the crest of waves approaching the shore might be 1.47 plus 1.5 = 2.97 above normal high tide level. Breaking waves can splash higher still but the amount of water in such spray is small compared with that in 'green' waves and carries much less energy so is less destructive. This effect of wave height in relation to tide height was very obvious in the storm tides in East Anglia before Christmas when the North facing shoreline of North Norfolk took a hammering from the North Westerly waves, whereas the East facing coast still got high tides due to the surge but did not have to face the additional problem of waves as those coasts were relatively sheltered from NW winds. Rather long winded I am afraid and rather off topic, but I hope helps give an understanding of the different conventions. I still love the fact that doors are 1.981 metres high (the old 6 foot six) rather than a nice round 2 metres which they could be if we just added an inch to the top, all a question of history and resistance to change!

Ian Ferguson was not joking when he said (a week before Xmas if I remember right) tat we were about to experience noteworthy weather. Meto spot on! Hope not too much damage - keep safe

Tinybill, welcome to the 'friendly thread' please send our New Year's best wishes to all in East Anglia! Yes I have been watching the radar with interest, blowy and wet here but the pulse of heaviest rain now seems set for the Portsmouth to Bognor stretch of coast. Winter cloud often seems to sheer off along the Channel Coastline before coming inland. Possibly this is due to the relief of coastal land and relatively warm sea encouraging dense moist air to go around rather than over sea cliffs. Channel thunderstorms in summer do seem much more willing to come straight ashore at Portland Wormster - yes it is looking to be heading for you!

Yes Happy new year all - hopefully this rash of Thunderstorms with the New Year is jus the start of an exciting year! We had to wait 15 minutes into the year for the T&L and have now got about 10mm of lying hail.

Rain stopped about half an hour ago and the wind has finally started to ease a bit - no longer booming incessantly in the chimney Edit - just looked at the radar and there is a small clear patch passing through - more rain following in after. Deep joy! Thoughts with all those suffering damage and hope it doesn't ruin Xmas.Can only start to think what it must be like for those affected by the casualties further North, heart and prayers go out.

Met office warning out for rain and ice this evening

What on earth is the severe Easterly arrow doing over Gosport when everything else is Southerly?!

Thanks Corinthian So currently assume 'normal' winter continental cooling and watch for the corresponding pressure rise to initiate change in Jet, rather than looking for some other unrelated trigger to do so in a more random fashion?'

Carinthian, I m trying to get my head around the current position and exactly what processes might initiate Arctic blocking. Do you know what changes your sources see as causing such blocking and the indicators that this will happen? I ask this as one the one hand I feel that the current set up appears pretty 'locked in' whereas weather often starts to change early in the New Year. I have always assumed that those changes stem indirectly from the effects on the atmosphere of sea temperatures and seasonal changes in solar warmth. I.e things that are difficult to pin down with scientific evidence due to the indirect way in which the effects lead to measurable change.

looking forward to launch of the Apple version

A bit worrying - will polar bears start raiding the bins in Iceland if the ice sheet makes contact? LoL

I was up near Shaftesbury this afternoon when the cold front moved through at about 14:15. Temperature dropped from 7.5 to 2 degrees as a large convective cloud moved through on the back edge with squally wind and heavy rain. The rain then turned to sleet and small soft hail as the temperature dropped away. i forget who it was who earlier today said 'possible sleet if precipitation is heavy enough', but that call was spot on! I wasn't expecting the temperture to get quite so low or to see sleet here in Dorset.