egret

Dont worry Jethro - now is the time to contact Wandsworth Council and book a pitch for your Minestrone Soup and Jacket Potato stall at Putney (on the Thames). Those charts suggest to me that this time it is coming! Trust me there will be Mammoths roaming on the Somerset Levels by the end of February!

Commodore has green all over the screen if I remember correctly? I am currently looking for a screen which gives nice purple and white colours like the ICON you just posted but with some white pixels added.

RS, ones viewpoint must depend to some extent where you live - down here in Dorset we have been enjoying some wonderful, still, sunny days since New Years Day and cold frosty nights (just as forecast from well before Christmas). Had it been windy we would have felt very cold (wind chill). Before Christmas we endured weeks of wet and overcast days so this spell of dry wintery weather is most welcome and lifts the spirits. I tend not to post on such matters as I realise this is a IMBY issue but overall I think the charts have been pretty good. Every time we get a SSW there are what appear to be violent swings between successive outputs but a common theme is that when the deep cold (and snow for that matter) arrives it might only have 48 hrs firm warning. Given the consistency of (general) model output for changes in Troposheric conditions to occur some time around 15th Jan I am continuing to look from that date to the end of January for what I consider 'real excitement'. I remain confident that we shall experience deep cold and snow for many and a personal hope is that we get embedded deep cold and a decent Channel low to thrill the counties on that seaboard as has featured in one or two of the FI charts. Now that is both IMBY and FI but living down here you have to clutch at straws for snow and that has always been the case. In summary I wouldn't be surprised if something really interesting crops up with two days warning at any point from now onwards but will not trust longer range patterns until downwelling is firmly modelled (thinking model output runs from the middle of next week for 15th onwards). Egret

Yes John and also thinking that the sea around our shores is still what might be called warm. A few nice chilly winds are needed and then things become less marginal. that said if we could get a truly icy blast from the East then the lake effect would be awesome - maybe that's what Met Office hint at for the New Year.

Amazing, it looked really dark to our East - I imagined you would have had a good soaking in the Purbecks. I was up in N Dorset walking on the Downs last night and saw some young badgers foraging - they look very small and thin for their age but at least they are alive. I imagine they will be raiding blackberries for moisture now and will have had a good feed of worms in the rain a fortnight ago which will have helped bolster them. Hard times for many creatures but insects and their predators probably doing alright. We live quite near the watermeadows and are seeing an abnormally large number of bats in the garden (four different species), I am wondering if they might have moved away from drier areas. We also have a little owl visiting which I have not seen before (occasional tawny owl in the past but not little owl ). It visits both at dusk and at 4.30 am!

Are you getting showers off the stream currently coming up from the Cherbourg Peninsular? We had a few spots half an hour ago but the edge of the stream seems to be about 10 miles to our East. (probably my fault for deciding not to water the patio plant pots because it will rain!)

Very interested tro hear of sharks (smoothound, tope?) Plenty of mackerel at last round Weymouth but only in the past days. I was down at Chesil Cove for a beer last weekend and there was hardly anyone fishing!

I hope so - looking forward to a nice output figure from our photovoltaic panels on the roof. After a dismal output across the winter this is most welcome!! Has the heat affected the fishing down your way? Weymouth seems very quiet fish -wise. Just waiting to see if it comes alive late August when the prawns and fry get going.

Yes, we often get a months rain in one day, but a months sunshine is quite special - love it!! Great day however and I for one have been pleased to see the temps moderate a bit and the water butt replenished.

Mapantz, Is there not a big lump just coming ashore near Swanage just now ? (looking at Meto Rainfall Radar) this pulse looks like our best bet tonight. We have had a few bangs and light showers but nothing to rattle the china yet.

Yes snow turned to rain here also and now thawing well as warmer air moves in. Wildlife will be relieved - there was a woodcock sitting on the road as we drove back from the pub, not normal behaviour and presumably because the ground in the woods has been to hard to feed. He flew off as we approached so was not injured.

Just had a short spell quite heavy snowfall (heavier than yesterday) which hs now changed to ice grains. About 5mm additional snow which I didn't expect. Snow still crisp underfoot and temperature between -0.5 but feels as if it is rising.

Yes, some of the recent immigrants like Little Egrets will be wondering if they did the right thing. Very few birds moving round here but Idid hear a blackcap singing in the hedgerow when i took the dogs out - he will be suffering as only a few overwinter in the UK.

I've just come back from playing toboggans and training the dogs to drag the toboggan uphill! (no I will never grow up!) I would say a genuine 3 cm overall depth with 20 to 30cm in the drifts. On the way back there was freezing drizzle blowing in the wind and stinging my face. The air temperature now is close to thawing so I am slightly worried what we shall see in the morning. May have to drive up to the downs to get the ice and proper toboggan runs down may favourite N facing road (Bulbarrow). Almost tempted to head up there later tonight if it starts to re-freeze as I am sure the ground temperatures are good. Hardly any traffic on the A35 and it is still packed snow not slush.

Just waiting to hear about enormous snow drifts against the fencing of the M4 as snow refused to go over it! Didn't really mean that but it is so good to finally get a good dumping here!

Fine snow falling steadily here too

My wife was in Exeter in February 1978 - snowed in for nearly a fortnight. Similar conditions today inasmuch as we are in a true battleground scenario, I would not be wholly surprised if the rain / thaw following is less pronounced than forecast, I say this as weather from the channel always seems reluctant to rise up off the channel and over the land at this time of year. It appears to sheer along the coast if it can.In which case stays colder and edges further East. If we do get rain and ice there a whole new set of problems with roofs collapsing, black ice and power lines collapsing so lets hope that doesn't happen. Either way stay safe!

Well that is interesting, maybe both are correct. I had the misfortune of having my car run into by another in snow some years back. I was pulled over and stationary with nearside wheels up on the verge at the time and a car coming the other way out of control slid into my car. I had witnesses to the fact. Even so my insurers insisted that the insurers policy in snow conditions is to settle claims on a knock for knock basis. So, although you are insured your no claims is at risk if another vehicle hits you. They said this was because I went out knowing the conditions to be tricky.

= thunder snow?

Dorsetbred and Mapantz I was just looking at the ;latest lightning radar and it looks like the two of you might be well placed for the cluster currently working their way up from Brittany - I might be a shade too far west for the most intense activity.My fault as I slept right through what was apparently a humdinger the night before last (we have a litter of week old puppies and I am still trying tp recapture lost sleep!) I knew I slept soundly but perhaps not that soundly. It will be interesting to see just where the owernight pulse heads, they seem often to sheer off eastwards up the channel or northwards towards Bristol Channel when the earlier drift suggests N to NNE drift.

Apologies Ed for not explaining more clearly, - my post was intended to reflect against title of the thread: 'stopping dangerous global warming'. My point being that I somehow doubt that man can stop changes of this magnitude (which evidence shows have occurred throughout time, even before man was able to influence the process). I believe we continue to build in unsuitable locations and expect others to carry the future burden of so doing. We need to improve at learning from history. When it comes to pollution or unnecessary depletion of finite natural resources, be they mineral, vegetable or animal then I think we could have a more useful ambition - these are things we can do something about if we have a mind to if we approach them with honesty and determination.

Why do we think this is all something new and man made? There is huge evidence all around us of there having been both substantially higher and lower sea levels in relatively recent (geomorphologically and archaeologically) timescales. Look at raised beach levels around the UK and in the mediterranean. Buildings and villages metres below sea level and beaches 50m above sea level. Perhaps the priority should be to ban new building in areas prone to flooding and rapid coastal erosion and plan for retreat from towns that were historically associated with ports and river crossings but no longer need to be at such locations. On the matter of Photovoltaic panels, why not install them in hot arid areas where nothing grows rather than in areas such as UK where their effect is to reduce the growth of plants on the land in question (which would otherwise absorb CO2 and increase oxygen)

heavy and prolonged hail shower just passed through followed by a single lightning flash and thunderclap

We just had the mother of all thunder cracks here in Puddletown - it really shook the house and gave a very long rumble. We have shutters on the windows so I didn't see the lightning flash. Went and checked round the house and can see no damage but he dogs are refusing to go outside! No other thunder heard before or after this

Thanks for picking that chart Daniel, it shows snow for Africa but not the S Coast of UK. Ok there is Continental climate and height ASL to consider, but even so it is interesting