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egret

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    Puddletown, Dorset
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    wildlife, weather and old cars

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  1. Two general points ( sorry - unrelated to Dec2010 post but I cannot remove that link!) 1. Re the SSW, as far as I recall it's timing and extent was well modelled. Until the second week in January the ' better informed' posters were very clearly saying the outcome very much depended on where the polar vortex bucket spilled. Yes it spilled into USA ( as usual?) but that was not a certainty and many of us hoped that would not be the case. A useful point for analytical review later. 2.this weeks snow and cold have actually been well modelled for the South Coast - even the stalling centre of the low and associated circulation. It would quite frankly be ridiculous to expect the precise (+/- 50 miles) centre and drift of that centre to be better predicted than it was. Meto amber warnings are not issued casually and both their general location and severity were fully justified in my view. On other such occasions the low has drifted even further South and missed the UK entirely. Even the snow accumulation maps have been pretty good although localised variability has been notable - but we use the term now casting for snow for good reason. For once in a decade I enjoyed ace tobogganing in -1c temperatures yesterday ( near Blandford) and this morning the snow remains well frozen and for that I am grateful. The altitude there gives 2c advantage and helps in marginal conditions. By Dorset standards this amount of snowfall was a once in a decade event. As for the outlook I am not giving up hope - some of our best snowfalls have come in the last week of February. The current week was forecast to be mild mush for the South from about two weeks ago if my memory serves me right yet the model outputs turned round almost overnight with about a week to go. Nothing to say this cannot repeat.
  2. 3 degrees and raining here near Dorchester. wind picking up
  3. A quick visit to the MOD thread and it seems the New Year party has moved on. We had a round of Blind Man's Buff earlier and sat down to the table for Jellies and Trifles yesterday, but it looked as though that might get a bit messy so I popped outside for a breath of fresh air. Just returned indoors to find that the games have started again. This time its pin the tail on the donkey. This one is such great fun so I must stay and watch! Taxi has been booked for the 27th as we don't want to get stuck in the snow after that.
  4. Joe, I think if you align those years with records of solar minima there is a very close correlation. The reason I have been awaiting this winter for the last 15 years and will be gutted if we don't get a notable spell of wintery weather.
  5. Oh and I should add I was training them to retrieve across the river at the time - I suppose that might be called a Controlled Run.
  6. Just saw a little grebe while walking my dogs. He spent most of his time under water. Does that tell us anything?
  7. Dont worry Jethro - now is the time to contact Wandsworth Council and book a pitch for your Minestrone Soup and Jacket Potato stall at Putney (on the Thames). Those charts suggest to me that this time it is coming! Trust me there will be Mammoths roaming on the Somerset Levels by the end of February! 😄
  8. Commodore has green all over the screen if I remember correctly? I am currently looking for a screen which gives nice purple and white colours like the ICON you just posted but with some white pixels added.
  9. i Egret,you post today was so upbeat it really raised my spirits you are obviously a bottle half full person,jut keep posting like that and it might lift the current gloon of some of the members, regards Mike.

    1. egret

      egret

      Thanks Rollo, not sure I am particularly optimistic re weather outcomes - I just try and stand back a bit to try and see a wider picture. 

       

  10. RS, ones viewpoint must depend to some extent where you live - down here in Dorset we have been enjoying some wonderful, still, sunny days since New Years Day and cold frosty nights (just as forecast from well before Christmas). Had it been windy we would have felt very cold (wind chill). Before Christmas we endured weeks of wet and overcast days so this spell of dry wintery weather is most welcome and lifts the spirits. I tend not to post on such matters as I realise this is a IMBY issue but overall I think the charts have been pretty good. Every time we get a SSW there are what appear to be violent swings between successive outputs but a common theme is that when the deep cold (and snow for that matter) arrives it might only have 48 hrs firm warning. Given the consistency of (general) model output for changes in Troposheric conditions to occur some time around 15th Jan I am continuing to look from that date to the end of January for what I consider 'real excitement'. I remain confident that we shall experience deep cold and snow for many and a personal hope is that we get embedded deep cold and a decent Channel low to thrill the counties on that seaboard as has featured in one or two of the FI charts. Now that is both IMBY and FI but living down here you have to clutch at straws for snow and that has always been the case. In summary I wouldn't be surprised if something really interesting crops up with two days warning at any point from now onwards but will not trust longer range patterns until downwelling is firmly modelled (thinking model output runs from the middle of next week for 15th onwards). Egret
  11. Yes John and also thinking that the sea around our shores is still what might be called warm. A few nice chilly winds are needed and then things become less marginal. that said if we could get a truly icy blast from the East then the lake effect would be awesome - maybe that's what Met Office hint at for the New Year.
  12. Amazing, it looked really dark to our East - I imagined you would have had a good soaking in the Purbecks. I was up in N Dorset walking on the Downs last night and saw some young badgers foraging - they look very small and thin for their age but at least they are alive. I imagine they will be raiding blackberries for moisture now and will have had a good feed of worms in the rain a fortnight ago which will have helped bolster them. Hard times for many creatures but insects and their predators probably doing alright. We live quite near the watermeadows and are seeing an abnormally large number of bats in the garden (four different species), I am wondering if they might have moved away from drier areas. We also have a little owl visiting which I have not seen before (occasional tawny owl in the past but not little owl ). It visits both at dusk and at 4.30 am!
  13. Are you getting showers off the stream currently coming up from the Cherbourg Peninsular? We had a few spots half an hour ago but the edge of the stream seems to be about 10 miles to our East. (probably my fault for deciding not to water the patio plant pots because it will rain!)
  14. Very interested tro hear of sharks (smoothound, tope?) Plenty of mackerel at last round Weymouth but only in the past days. I was down at Chesil Cove for a beer last weekend and there was hardly anyone fishing!
  15. I hope so - looking forward to a nice output figure from our photovoltaic panels on the roof. After a dismal output across the winter this is most welcome!! Has the heat affected the fishing down your way? Weymouth seems very quiet fish -wise. Just waiting to see if it comes alive late August when the prawns and fry get going.
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