Steve C

Agree. This is one to really watch for the strength of the wind. I guess we'll know a bit more about the potential this evening.

Sustained cold snowy northerlies are very rare for my location. 2010 was the only one I can remember - I can't remember back to 1970. Half the problem is that northerlies just don't sustain - they become modified by warm sectors etc. I never have great excitement for them.

Yes but a large shovel of salt needed too.

Personally I'd like to see both - a broad ridge from North West Russia to Southern Greenland. If we discount the next 10 days, due to the Atlantic spell, we are starting to run out of time for prolonged and sustained cold though. Sure we can have potent short spells until probably early April and snow that will quickly melt afterwards for even longer. In the CET record, if the parameter of a CET maximum temperature of <1C is used, there have been about 165 days in February in the record (from some time in the 1870's) compared to 20 in March - I think 3 were last year. Therefore for me, late mid February to early March please. I'll be looking for warm Spring days afterwards, much more than frost and snow.

Nice to see you were at large . Great photos!

I wouldn't worry about them. All harmless, in that whatever they wish makes zero difference to eventual outcomes. Mind you I find it very strange when a few are posting early morning, during the day and in the evening for weeks on end. I dunno, awaiting every model update... Something amiss. Would do my head in! Harmless though...

A sane post. Thanks!

Yes and we (most here) don't, as a rule, want a shift to lows tracking further north. The danger then being that everyone might miss out.

Looking at the updated models, I'm wondering whether this will end up being the Winter of great disappointment? I still think we are likely to have a proper cold shot, maybe mid Feb? However I was very confident (70% chance) that the same would start from about this weekend, towards the end of last week. Oh well, worse things happen at sea! At least we haven't had destructive winds and property flooding etc. I still think we'll have a decent cold shot, if not anything like 1947!

If you're going to do that, please make sure you include your postings for the last 6 weeks as well...

Maybe an example of chaos theory / butterfly effect ?

Yes, I suppose you can take that from it.

Probably something like this. Undoubtedly rubbish though.

Probably not in Greenland.

Is the 0.87 factor just a good rule of thumb? I'm thinking pressure doesn't increase / decrease in a linear fashion through the depth of the atmosphere. Would an extreme (say) 950mb or 1050mb surface pressure test the 0.87 factor quoted? Just interested, as I've wondered about this previously.

Yes, wrong kind of snow etc, but he might be young...

I quite like the split tbh. At least this thread seems to be for those with a cold bias. I found the stick that people like IDO took for making cautionary and frankly balanced posts annoying (the evidence so far is that he's been closer to the mark than many) Most people here in Winter seem to prefer the ramping style posts, so the split makes sense to me.

Yep, the coldest month in my lifetime.

Jesus H! Not what I was saying at all! A straw man argument if ever there was one! This is a model discussion thread...

I think I know what you're saying but can't be sure... Hopefully you're not saying just look out the window or rely on a modern day Bill Foggitt?

Who's saying the ECM isn't important?

Sorry, that's fake news. The fleeting snow had been predicted for several days.

Yes, with high springs then unfortunately.

And long may it continue! I won't pretend I understand the dynamics of your analyses of upstream patterns but I accept them. I like your reasoned postings a lot more than so many of the hyperbolic types that infest this place in the Winter and will seek them out on my visits here. Obviously there are other superb posters here as well mind. If a person took at face value the number of day 6 etc. changes to / continuations of cold spells that are posted here and those events happened, the Winter of 1963 wouldn't stand a chance!