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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’d put Midlands favourite at the moment, purely because it’s far enough N to likely be in the cold air and far enough S to ensure precipitation from the LP. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO D7…all the ingredients for a snowstorm shortly after at D8. I’d say if you’re in the Midlands you’ve got a good chance of a decent snowfall next week. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You were correct about those Iberian heights. They’re preventing that Atlantic LP from sliding across France. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It does make sense as the strat (and ultimately trop) vortex shifts back west. It could be the case that there is some overreaction in some NWP products to this occurring (firing up a very +ve AO and NAO). -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The one thing I’ve learned with regards to potential cold spells is never ignore the model that shows what you don’t want. Sometimes it’s the UKMO, sometimes the ECM and sometimes, like now, it’s the GFS. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m sure when I first signed up to this site I’d never seen the word ‘envelope’ used in the context of weather modelling before. @bluearmy I blame you -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like the GFS finally splits the strat vortex in FI btw -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah a solution like that is preferable to me. The GFS just looks like stagnant cold with very little oomph to the flow…hence would be mostly dry. Would rather take my chances and see some snow on the ground than remain dry and cold. -
Nino to Nina would do me well. As with every year, I hope to see a cool wet summer with plenty of convective diurnally driven downpours. A few warmer days would be nice too but nothing excessively hot.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Happy enough with that EC run tbh. Unlike other output I’ve seen over the past couple of days it doesn’t shut the door on cold going forward. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
192 looks decent. Should see a sweep S of the cold by D9 -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS sniffing another warming now Hopefully the final blow to the SPV. If so, we can expect a decent tail end of Jan and into Feb. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That’s awful to be fair. Hard to get to where we want to be from there. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Zero point looking further than here now Insanely complex. If a ridge can be thrown up ahead of that deep Atlantic LP, the block may regenerate. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As I thought, GFS is fine. The Atlantic LP in earlier frames needs to stay backed off now as far W as we can get it. It’s clear now that it isn’t (initially) going to disrupt far enough E under the blocking. As long as it doesn’t sit to our SW and interfere then all should be good. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But it’s the safest option to get the cold at all now. Infinitely better than that LP getting into no mans land to our SW where it both cuts off WAA and encourages a European pressure rise. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS is fine. LP stalls well out west and allows WAA to head N to keep Greenland heights inflated This might be what we have to hope for now as the S arm of the jet looks too undercooked. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If that Atlantic LP is going to stall rather than push E into Europe then we want it to stall well west. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO looked better the GFS at 12z, the GFS looks better than the UKMO this run. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the control solution comes to pass we’ll be needing to get around by boat I personally think that the slide in the output is being caused by the strat- You can see above how the trop and strat are dancing the same jig. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah a few lemons in there for sure -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think he meant it was 50/50 as to whether the cold made it on the op -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The thing is it tallies with the strat forecasts which have moderate warming working around the other side of the NH, pushing the SPV towards Greenland. It’s why I tried to stress the importance of the split…Some people wouldn’t have it though. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
unless sun loungers in Spain are involved