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Cheshire Freeze

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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze

  1. Cheshire Freeze
    Definite lessening of the snow risk in general. This winter has been crap, for want of a better word.
  2. Cheshire Freeze
    Mike Poole March has been showing as blocked (Greenland) on the seasonals for months…moreso than any other month. It was always going to head that way.
  3. Cheshire Freeze
    I remember the Feb 2007 event- forecast to be a wet day with temperatures into low single figures. Instead we got 10cm of lying snow, even here with temperatures around freezing.
  4. Cheshire Freeze
    Ali1977 I’ve seen the Arpege as errant as other models
  5. Cheshire Freeze
    WeatherArc looking ominous for summer when we’re seeing plumes of that strength modelled in February. The acceleration in the warming trend over the past few years is alarming…just in my opinion of course. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5031161
  6. Cheshire Freeze
    WeatherArc looking ominous for summer when we’re seeing plumes of that strength modelled in February. The acceleration in the warming trend over the past few years is alarming…just in my opinion of course.
  7. Cheshire Freeze
    All coming together for a cold March, isn’t it.
  8. Cheshire Freeze
    Some warmth in the sun today
  9. Cheshire Freeze
    It really could be as simple as an anomalously warm September is brought about by a synoptic pattern which is part of a 6 month (etc) circulation that we don’t yet understand. As I said, just because we don’t yet understand the mechanism it doesn’t mean the mechanism doesn’t exist. To assume that it’s a statistical quirk assumes that all months are independent of one another all of the time. I don’t think that’s the case…
  10. Cheshire Freeze
    @Weather-history sometimes things just are what they are. There might not seem to be a logical reason that we can fathom right now, but that doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist. There’s no logical reason for the existence of the universe but here we are.
  11. Cheshire Freeze
    Some of the charts coming out are bonkers. GFS has raw values on 2nd Feb of 16c on its 0z run. Meaning 17-18C not out of the question in that scenario. If the extreme mild charts continue, then for me this will go down as one of the most abysmal winters…and there have been a few of them lately. A couple of snow days doesn’t hide the fact that this winter has mostly been dire. I suspect we’ll see an early spring that’s followed by an anomalously cold spell in March or April.
  12. Cheshire Freeze
    @Dark Horse it is worrying. The acceleration of summer warming across S and central Europe is frightening IMO. We’re seeing these higher than normal upper temperatures come earlier and earlier, year on year.
  13. Cheshire Freeze
    Winds stronger here with this storm than Isha.
  14. Cheshire Freeze
    Yeah I was thinking that earlier. It’s breezy for sure but it feels like a typical winter depression rather than anything noteworthy.
  15. Cheshire Freeze
    Cheshire is well sheltered from a SW’ly. A NW’ly is a different kettle of fish! We cop those.
  16. Cheshire Freeze
    Doesn’t seem too bad here. Must be getting some shelter from the Welsh uplands to the west and southwest.
  17. Cheshire Freeze
    Well it didn’t materialise
  18. Cheshire Freeze
    ICON seems to have upgraded wind speeds on it’s 0z run compared to its 18z- I make that widespread inland 60-70mph gusts with 80mph gusts in more exposed locations. Widespread amber warning is on its way I’m guessing.
  19. Cheshire Freeze
    Strongest signal yet for something later on. If the UKV shows convective showers coming inland then there’s a chance…
  20. Cheshire Freeze
    Have reached -7 here tonight
  21. Cheshire Freeze
    Fair chance of a weak streamer setting up later tomorrow in S parts of the region IMO
  22. Cheshire Freeze
    Doesn’t feel as cold as that Dec 2022 spell did IMO. That was FREEZING. We did get closer to -10 here though that spell.
  23. Cheshire Freeze
    Any Scandi heights likely to retrogress to Greenland by month end and continuing into March. Seasonals rock solid consistent on Greenland blocking into the first month of spring.
  24. Cheshire Freeze
    I’ve seen these scenarios before where you’ve got strong HP underneath these low pressures. They tend to be more violent wind makers than they look on synoptic charts. You can see very tight isobars in more general low heights and they turn out to be not so bad.
  25. Cheshire Freeze
    Must say, I didn’t expect anything this far south in the region
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