Cheshire Freeze

Soon be autumn We wish for summer but by the time it arrives we’re so much closer to the days darkening again.

Addicks Fan 1981 never really seen any of these pattern matches or analogues come off really. We’ll see.

WYorksWeather Option 7 looks most likely to me. We’ve seen a drive to cut emissions over the past decade or so and the warming continues to accelerate. That to me says that we’re locked into a feedback of consequences and tipping point has been breached. It’s too late IMO. Would be delighted to be proved wrong though.

kold weather given what we’ve seen over the past few years in terms of accelerated warming, I personally think it’s too late for any amount of change to have any effect. We’re locked into runaway feedback IMO and we’re watching it play out. I think the money would be better spent mitigating the effects…giving people grants/access to cheap air conditioning etc.

Interesting those lingering shallow lows around the UK are very ‘La Nina summer’ like. Saw such in 2007. If we can get that pattern into spring then we could see some decent diurnally driven convection.

Any dry spell looks on thin ice to me- two week rainfall totals approaching 80-90mm in places We look to be well and truly in the midst of an extended wet period. We could well end up with a slow moving undercutting jet through March (given any modelled HP will likely end up further N due to SSW effects).

Stabilo19 That’s exactly what is happening.

feb1991blizzard quite. Would not be surprised if this spring follows the typical Nino pattern with winds mostly north of west into March and perhaps April. I wouldn’t be counting on a warm early-mid spring by any stretch.

I’ve been saying about March for a while…

You have to laugh really, you just know what’s coming for March. Trough dropping into Europe and HP stretching somewhere between Greenland and Scandi

Mike Poole it was a sum of the parts thing for me really. A few things added up to provide the pessimism once we missed the boat on that split SSW. @bluearmy has summarised things really well tbh in respect to any resultant blocking being too far N for the UK to benefit. The Jan SSW was only a temporary displacement- against the backdrop of a strong Nino and a slightly displaced jet, there was never going to be a chance for N Atlantic blocking to get a foothold as the warming relaxed and the SPV headed back west. At that point there was good coupling between strat and trop, which meant the antagonistic response to N Atlantic troughing was enhancement of Euro heights. The galling thing being, I believe that had a decent split of the SPV occurred, we’d have locked in to a blocked regime that benefited the UK in terms of cold, aided by the MJO. I honestly believe it would have been a noteworthy spell. The MJO on its own was not going to be enough. TBH with you I’m still left scratching my head as to how that split SSW failed.

jamesthemonkeh The blocked March signal in the seasonals has been there for months. We’ll have to wait and see I guess.

Standard ‘winter in March’ looks like it’s on the horizon to me. Doesn’t really suit anyone does it?!

bluearmy Yes. I feel sorry for the cold chasers…wasn’t too bad for me because I mentally checked out in early Jan with the failure of the split SSW. It was painfully evident to me that we needed that.

Derecho a rapid transition to La Nina could mean a washout summer for the UK…but you never know with the inflated Azores HP in play.

Daniel* obviously the data says one thing but I’ve seen more evidence of drought (dried up landscapes) in the last decade than I ever remember before that.

A Face like Thunder don’t be silly, the rain was always going to return for my walk to work at 2pm! Like clockwork.

Rain rain and more effin rain

An air temperature of 2C, a feel like temperature of -4C, a strong E’ly and heavy rain…later on will be grim.

Mostly rain shown on the automated forecasts now. More rain…yay

Definite lessening of the snow risk in general. This winter has been crap, for want of a better word.

Mike Poole March has been showing as blocked (Greenland) on the seasonals for months…moreso than any other month. It was always going to head that way.

I remember the Feb 2007 event- forecast to be a wet day with temperatures into low single figures. Instead we got 10cm of lying snow, even here with temperatures around freezing.

Ali1977 I’ve seen the Arpege as errant as other models

WeatherArc looking ominous for summer when we’re seeing plumes of that strength modelled in February. The acceleration in the warming trend over the past few years is alarming…just in my opinion of course. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5031161