Cheshire Freeze

No, GFS ensemble @bluearmy I'm guessing GFS is on the right and EPS on left

Just need to keep our fingers (and toes) crossed that we can get heights falling away across Europe at some point in the next 2-3 weeks. That will be one big hurdle overcome should we see it transpire.

There is still no appreciable troughing to our S though with heights extending S into France on that GFS ensemble chart. Until we see heights drop further S across Central and S Europe we will struggle to get any meaningful cold uppers into the UK.

Absolutely!

I'd certainly hesitate to call it faux cold, because in an absolute sense cold is cold. However with inversion or surface type cold you're always well aware that the slightest breeze can disrupt the layers of the air and mix that cold out very easily.

There is a difference between deep cold upper air (supportive of a vast array of winter weather types e.g snow) and cold surface air. What we have seen has been mostly the latter...as I'm sure you're well aware.

No, I'd rather we took the output for what it is rather than leading less learned individuals astray. The moment the modelling takes on a more positive facet I'll be the first one to cheer but when I'm logging on here and looking at blatant +NAO charts with comments underneath along the lines of 'well this is how 1962 started' and 'well if HP could just be 1000 miles further west we'd be in business' and 'the Metoffice long ranger says a chance of cold so I'll take that to mean it's going to get cold' etc etc...well, you get the idea. Add to that the same tired cliches that surface every year and you get my drift. It's not negativity or pessimism, it's realism.

I'm really not understanding this 'nicey nicey, let's be optimistic stance' in here from some members. Blind faith comes to mind. There is absolutely nothing wrong with members expressing their concerns over what they see within the NWP and should not be made to feel like Victor Meldrew for putting their concerns out there. If anything, it's the constant upbeat in the face of adversity attitude that is starting to grate on me. Let's look at the facts, despite having had favourable background drivers, we have somehow managed to so far escape any meaningful deep cold (uppers below -5)....these drivers now look to subside somewhat (more especially stratospherically where at one point it looked as we would see a SSW). The NWP is shocking and we're now reduced to trying to decipher the smallest of signals in the extended range of the ensembles. It isn't great at the minute, and let's not sugar coat that. BUT it is only the 2nd December and so we have plenty of time for a change around to occur. I'm hoping we see strong signs of this sooner rather than later.

TBH I can see where Feb1991 is coming from...the trend since that failed WAA attempt into Greenland a couple of weeks back has been a deteriorating one as far as December's prospects are concerned. I did even say at that time that it was a disappointment as I felt it was a big big opportunity missed (not to mention that drive of WAA was most probably critical as to how the here and now is playing out). I think we all know that once an unsettled/Atlantic driven spell gets going in a UK winter it is very hard to overcome...especially (as Feb notes) when there is little in the way of drivers that seem able to force a change of fortunes. From the strat thread it also seems as though GP is now looking towards latter December for a potential driver for change...which is getting on towards the time I expect we'll see the greatest propensity for favourable blocking..i.e January. I remain optimistic that we'll see a good period of wintry weather this year.

Minimum of -1.8C here last night...looking at Metoffice WOW website it seems places just 50 miles N were at 6C! Currently 5C

Been at work for most of the day and just catching up...I had hoped that we would be seeing stronger signs of something more wintry in the deeper realms of the NWP by now but apparently not. Does this come as a surprise? No. I'm pleased that Matt Hugo has addressed the apparent disconnect between the longer range modelling and the more short/medium range NWP products. I noted this the other day as some of you may remember; with the 'dream synoptics' having been pushed back update after update. I don't know the reasoning for this BUT whenever you see heights failing to lower across Europe (repeatedly) then alarm bells start to ring. For whatever reason, the longer range modelling has seemingly been too eager to introduce lower heights across the mainland...which obviously goes hand in hand with the seemingly ever present HP cell being not able to migrate further N. Where do we go from here...I don't know in all honesty but to see the HP modelled to slip SE is not a good omen in my very honest opinion and as Matt has said I think in the next week, crunch time will come for the rest of December's weather. However, there is a positive. I don't (and haven't for about 3 weeks) believe that this will be a 'front loaded' winter. I don't think it will be a typical nina template i.e late mildness. I was surprised at the UKMO bullishness towards early cold in all honesty given last month's GLOSEA output which to me suggests that cold (or at least snowy episodes) would be more likely in the Jan-Mar period than the Dec-Feb timeframe and the CFS (for all its faults) has repeatedly gone for March blocking. This suggests to me that there is potential further along into the season & indeed early spring...so no need for anyone to be despondent in my view.

Latest run of CFS not great for December.. January is a different story though..

An overnight low of -5.9C here

Good to read Knocker...let's hope we do indeed see some signs of this in the EPS. We can have a little more confidence in the scenario then!

I interpret low heights running to our S as low heights running to our S. It's a pretty big miss by the model if you ask me. Of course I'm going to equate Low heights to the S and HP to the N as potentially snowy....given the time of year etc. It was a realistic expectation.

That's fair enough and fair play...but anyone hanging their hat on the ECM long ranger is setting themselves up for disappointment given what I've seen of its performance thus far (and yes I accept it's a bespoke model to which people pay a heft price for access to) especially in respect to implications over conditions around the UK. No model is infallible, especially when we're talking upwards of 3 weeks into the future. Troughing to our S (or E) for that matter is a fairly significant ingredient to the UK getting some deep cold.

Just to embelish the point...this from 14th Nov Worth adding that latest EC Monthly again raises GPH/MSLP to our NW with mean N'ly flow as we switch into Dec. Interestingly it then also develops (2nd week Dec) quite marked -ve GPH anomaly from Scandinavia to the UK, coupled to equally marked -ve MSLP across S UK and directly eastwards into adjacent NW Europe, with attendant appearance of +ve PPN anomalies by that stage. Fascinating times indeed. Second week of December starts 7th Dec...we're now looking at Christmas week. Let's not rewrite history here folks.

And that's my point of contention....and is what makes all the difference to the weather that we are to experience over the next 10 days or so. The LP anomalys that were shown in the longer range output to our S have not materialised. It leaves us marooned with a mid lat HP system which is going nowhere fast and little to no CAA into the UK.

Ian, I'm not saying there isn't surface cold knocking about...but me and you both know there is a big difference between a mid latitude feature with warmish uppers and a high latitude blocking feature with attendant snow risk. I don't know why people are getting so up in arms.

No, you're wrong. The posts are there to see in the archive from 2 maybe 3 weeks back. We were originally set to see HP to the N with a broad trough stretched from Scandi down towards UK with the jet running through France 1st week of December. It's there in the archive for all to see. Pretty sure it was Ian F or Blue which posted this. I'm not discounting such an evolution for Christmas week...but I'm not holding my breath either.

All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

Except, odds wise you've probably got equal chance of hitting, say, 5 numbers in the lotto to that evolution occurring. That was a unique winter.

My main worry looking at the ECM, is just how we're going to lower heights over S & C Europe? They appear to be quite entrenched to heights over N Africa. Not something which is pleasing on the eye going forward.

Can get some decent snowfall from a NWly here. Agreed, frost is preferred to relentless rain but I would like some snow TBH (as would most I'm guessing). Also, as an aside, with the HP moving slightly throughout the runs frost won't always be guaranteed...I can see trapped cloud being an issue at times. 4-5C by day and 1-2C by night hardly fills me with joy.

The high just doesn't do anything...just sits there, even whilst the trop PV falls apart around it. At this rate I'd rather power up the jet and have it flatten the high away. Would get more pleasure out of lee NW'lys and transient topplers than having to watch HP sit over the UK for 2 weeks solid.