Cheshire Freeze

August 2004 was a very thundery month, yes

Can't be that often that you see something like this modelled in June

BBC weather yesterday were saying how thunderstorms could be triggered ahead of the front out west on Friday

Always thought it stood for towering cumulus

Something perhaps starting to develop across Wales down in towards the SW?

Everybody in, it's splitting!

Quelle Surprise...I'm still in here. Sigh. Barely even a spot of rain has even fallen this weekend.

Storms developed literally 5 miles E of here before pushing off on their way NE. I give up, I really do. Same crap different year.

No reason to change my thoughts from early last month

Top temperature of 28.9C here today

We can leave Moki to hire the entertainment

Peaked at 28.3C here today...not too shabby but getting into the 'too warm for me' category!

You'd be surprised. I thought the same. However I've seen him post outside of NW and he would blow you away with his understanding. Seriously.

I duno, you've always had it spot on for here when you've said I'll get nothing

Oh and how could I forget AJ.... !!

@Mokidugwayis also excellent at the convective side of meteorology so maybe he could take up the mantle in here

He was booted from the forum a while back.

Checking the hi-res it's a 23C. Obviously the ECM would be different but its evolution around the weekend looks iffy to me- nothing scientific but all looks too slack for Saturday. I would imagine its 0z run will look different.

30C looks doubtful to me, very doubtful but if it's going to be achieved it'll be Thursday- why?- because Thursday sees the UK under the influence of HP with little wind to speak of Just a light breeze for most- so with still air and strong insolation (and warm uppers) a hot day in built up areas especially. Fast forward a day or two and the winds freshen from the SE Still warm but gusty Even more so on Saturday Hence GFS has temperatures nowhere near 30C Not even N France is shown to breach 30C. People can say the GFS undercooks temperatures but I doubt it's undercooking widely by 5-6C

HP straight through the pole too. Tallies with low sea ice extent aswell so I believe. None of the long range forecasting tools seem to be showing anything particularly unsettled for the coming summer- however you have to wonder whether there is an overriding factor (which the modelling is not taking into account) which also accounted for the disaster at forecasting the winter just gone?

We need the slack low centre over us for as long as possible in the upcoming set up. Cool air aloft allied to strong insolation at this time of year should set of some fireworks if the set up plays ball. Unfortunately in recent years, the optimal conditions wrt position of the low have occurred overnight rather than at peak heating. This has meant the west has already been in the subsiding air come afternoon, leaving the usual suspects in the east to enjoy the convective spoils.

Not been that wet at all here today. In fact it has been dry for a large portion of it. We are in quite a big rain shadow though.

You have to say, the 12z GFS looks like 2007 on steroids. Means nothing this early on though. Still suspect we'll see an improvement in the modelling as summer proper approaches.

Well no drought worries for a while if that 12 GFS run is close to the mark. Some nice slack LP systems in FI too which would promote some decent convection.

I don't think we'll end up with a -QBO at the lower levels but further up the QBO will be easterly. Slight concern is that I've read (on here) it's the QBO in the lower levels which has the greatest effect on the trop as the previous QBO state is 'flushed out' ahead of the reversal. I don't profess to be a QBO expert though What I will say though, going beyond next winter...next year could very well be another '8' summer i.e washout. Peak E'ly QBO will probably coincide with summer onset. Funny how these things line up.