Cheshire Freeze

GEM is decent too Yes Mike. I think a few of us have been quite bullish about Christmas cold, in the face of a dodgy couple of days of output.

Going forward into the new year there should be very little core vortex left over there. That’s the expectation anyway.

Also pertinent to note that modelling of the ESB will be more erratic than usual owing to the stratospheric configuration. The norm is to have the spv whizzing away merrily atop of that location. It’s currently (certainly will be soon) displaced well away from that area. Models will struggle with the placement of ridging and thus effectivly the placement of depressions entering the Atlantic.

The game was never off. There is nothing that supports entrenched Euro heights. That’s why I was at pains to tell people to be wary of any modelling of them for persistent periods of time.

The issue is people don’t learn. The absolute carnage in here yesterday. Euro high this, bartlett that. Then today-

Can’t see them sustaining there for any significant amount of time. If they do then climate change has buggered us and we really are in trouble because there’s very little in the way of drivers to support them.

In theory we’ll have a hard time sustaining a ridge to our NE if the zonal winds are flushed whilst the spv resides there

Exactly what I was thinking sir, hence my post earlier about the general pattern going forward of troughing down into Europe via Scandi.

Pop him a message and ask.

One more from me- be wary of assuming a return of Euro heights in FI. We’ll likely see this signal muted as we tick down towards the Christmas-New Year period. I see nothing to suggest we’ll see any form of sustained Euro heights going forward.

Looks like a mild US/Canadian winter to me at this point. The location of the strat PV towards Europe looks like it has longevity with repeated warmings working their way around to the Canadian side. The upshot would, to me, be a predisposition to deep troughing across and down through the European sector…aided and abetted at times by the tpv dropping through Scandi. In previous years we’ve seen this across the US with deep cold being propelled south. Looks like it’s our turn this year… The outlook looks cold to me.

Looking at how things are coming together, I really wouldn’t be surprised if we see the coldest January in a decade. The ingredients are certainly there for all to see. I’m pretty sure at this point that somewhere in N Europe is going to cop a severe wintry outbreak…let’s hope it’s the UK for a change.

And a strat that looks like it wants to chuck in the towel

Widespread power outages if the 0z GFS came to fruition. 100mph gusts around coasts and even more crazy, 80mph gusts well inland.

This GFS run is actually insane. Some really severe weather showing on it. Completely destructive at D8.

Off the scale jet streak

Well that’d certainly be a red wind warning, probably the largest ever issued

Here it comes

I’ve had 2 inches of snow fall here in December on a strongish NW’ly with uppers barely scraping -5. That’s at 55m elevation. 2011 I think.

That would certainly be rough here, exposed to that NW’ly. Can only imagine the wind chill.

The point is we were staring down the barrel of an entrenched Euro HP a couple of days ago (if we took the modelling at face value)…which never ever looked plausible at all.

Mayday mayday, the tpv sending distress signals Looking even less healthy up top too

This is a beautiful synoptic to be in… Often we get cold but no precipitation. With this you get high risk but a potential high pay out. Just enough forcing to allow systems to head SE enough that it interacts with cold advection from the main cold trough.